Companies are getting tariff refunds. Will you see lower prices?

Two months after the nation’s highest court struck down tariffs President Donald Trump imposed last year under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, U.S. businesses that paid those fees can apply for refunds through a new Customs and Border Protection portal. 

Court filings show those refunds could total roughly $166 billion, with more than 330,000 importers having paid tariffs on more than 53 million shipments. 

While companies shouldered much of the tariff costs, at least some were passed to shoppers through higher shelf prices. Still, consumers aren’t likely to see direct refunds or lower prices across the board, said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy for Descartes’ Global Trade Intelligence business unit.

“Paying those tariffs blew a giant hole in their profit-loss statements, and so recapturing those duty payments is really going to be about making their businesses whole,” Wood said. “It’s unlikely to bring much relief to the U.S. consumer any time soon.” 

New tariffs from the Trump administration, along with higher oil prices tied to the Iran war, are likely to keep prices elevated in the months ahead.

Two companies have pledged to pass some relief to consumers should they receive refunds.

“However, we haven’t heard from anybody else,” said Rohit Tripathi, vice president of industry and CPG, manufacturing at RELEX. “Prices are unlikely to drop in the near term.”

FedEx said it intends to issue refunds to customers in cases where the company acted as a customs broker once it begins receiving refunds, which could take time. Phase one of the refund process, which began April 20, is limited to “certain unliquidated entries” and shipments that fall within an 80-day window, according to Customs and Border Patrol. The agency added that refunds won’t be issued until 60 to 90 days after importers’ requests are accepted. 

In March, Costco CEO Ron Vachris said the grocery giant would pass any recovered refunds to members through lower prices and better value, though he added the future impacts of tariffs “remain extremely fluid.”

Shika Jain, a partner and head of consumer for North America at consultancy Simon-Kucher, said companies are aware some consumers are pulling back on spending, which might lead them to lower prices to get customers back in the door. But, she added, that’s not usually what happens. 

“When you drop prices, you don’t see a lot of volume or traffic in the store, so it just becomes more that you’ve eroded your top and bottom line,” Jain said. “That might not be the greatest answer for any consumer that is still struggling, but I find there’s a bit of a disconnect between what retailers expect the outcome to be from dropping prices and what actual consumer behavior results in.”

After the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February, Trump quickly acted to replace them with a 10% tariff on nearly all items imported into the United States. 

He did so under a different authority, section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which grants the president the ability to implement tariffs to address large trade imbalances, so long as they expire in 150 days. They took effect Feb. 24, meaning they will expire at the end of July. 

From there, the Trump administration plans to reinstate tariffs near or at IEEPA levels, according to Drew DeLong, head of corporate statecraft in Kearney Foresight, an arm of global management consultancy Kearney.

It includes using section 301 of the same act, which requires investigations but allows the administration to levy tariffs in response to foreign government actions that burden or restrict U.S. commerce.

In March, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced several section 301 investigations into China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan and India.  

“If you’re a company today and you cut prices based on IEEPA levels, then that sets up for tariffs to return to previous IEEPA levels, and then you have to take action again,” DeLong said. “I would expect most people to hold steady to see how the 301s play out.”