Shipping companies are avoiding using a U.S. military-guided transit scheme through the Strait of Hormuz after a wave of Iranian attacks on vessels sparked safety concerns, seven maritime security and shipping industry sources said.
For decades, ships sailed into and out of the Persian Gulf using a safe set of lanes down the middle of the strait established by the U.N.’s shipping agency in 1968 dubbed the Traffic Separation Scheme.
Since the Iran war began Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian forces placed mines in this area, forcing vessels to use one of two makeshift routes close to either the Iranian or Omani coast.
Vessels are seen June 30 in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Helping energy exports keep flowing
In June, Reuters reported that the U.S. military helped vessels through as part of an operation involving scores of secretive ship-to-ship oil transfers to keep energy exports flowing, using aerial and water drones as well as helicopters to guide tankers.
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The U.S.-assisted initiative enabled the export of tens of millions of barrels of oil, helping dampen the effects on energy prices of the largest-ever disruption in oil and gas supplies.
Yet shippers are evaluating the route on the Omani side of the strait as increasingly dangerous after attacks on ships.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility Tuesday for attacks on two Emirati oil supertankers.
As of Wednesday, about five ships were attacked since July 7 — three crude supertankers, one liquified natural gas tanker and one container ship — in Omani waters that fell under the U.S. scheme, according to analysis of incidents based on data from the U.N.'s shipping agency.
It was unclear if all the ships were sailing under the U.S. scheme, the sources said.
"The U.S. doesn't seem to have any control over the situation," one shipping source said, adding that their company opted not to sail through the strait due to crew safety concerns and the deteriorating security situation.
"Iran’s continued ability to target ships sailing through the Omani route means the Trump administration’s proposed solution to keep ships moving is unlikely to work," said Torbjorn Solvedt, principal Middle East analyst with risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
White House officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday reimposed a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and threatened to hit power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran resumes negotiations, in the latest U.S. escalation of the conflict.
Escalation as US reimposes blockade
A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said over the course of seven days more than 100 vessels directly coordinated with the U.S. military to pass through the strait and more than 300 passed through the region more generally, evidence that the U.S.-led efforts worked, even if volumes remained below pre-war levels.
Iran threatened Wednesday to shut off more regional energy exports after the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and both sides launched more strikes as they vie for control of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies transited before the war.
Tehran signaled it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which leads into the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital shipping arteries at risk.
About nine Greek-operated LNG tankers, which recently sailed into the Persian Gulf via Hormuz to load cargoes, were stuck inside the strait due to security concerns, another shipping source said.
Two further tankers were attacked since July 7 in open waters outside the strait.
As new fears of surging inflation and rising oil prices grow as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closes again, Christiane Amanpour speaks to President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Leslie Vinjamuri about what options are on the table now for Washington as the Memorandum of Understanding collapses.
Strait is open, Trump says
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz "is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran."
The U.S. reimposed its blockade on Iran-linked shipping that day.
Last week, the U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center raised its grading on the risks to ships in the strait from "substantial" to "severe" — one below its highest level, "critical."
The raised risk rating followed attacks on three tankers.
After the U.S.-coordinated scheme was launched last month, a U.S. Navy note told companies that efforts would be made to advise ship crews but it “may not be able to communicate threats to vessels in real-time."
The U.S. military did not provide enough clarity on the risks ships faced sailing through the Omani route, five of the sources said.
"They have stated that the Strait of Hormuz is 'not closed' and remains available to use," a maritime security source said. "This is making operators nervous and uncertain. Whilst they all have to make their own risk assessments, this is clearly not safe, so why say it is open?"
Greek maritime security company Diaplous said in an advisory Tuesday that the threat environment remains high and advised shipping companies to pause voyages until Saturday.
In a separate advisory, Greek maritime security company MARISKS said, "At this stage, there is no assurance that transits through the Strait of Hormuz can be conducted with an acceptable level of safety."
