Local opinion: Is Tucson providing for its future prosperity?

If you grew up elsewhere, say in Portland, Oregon, then the probability is you are earning more, inflation-adjusted, and at the same age, as somebody who grew up in Portland a generation before you.

But if you grew up in Tucson, the probability is that you are earning less than somebody who grew up in Tucson a generation before you.

The evidence is that economic mobility — the ability of children to move up the economic ladder in adulthood – is increasing in Portland but declining in Tucson.

The difference is substantial: In a recent analysis, I found Portlanders born a generation later earned $700 to $2,200 more annually, depending on their parents’ income, after adjusting for inflation. However, Tucsonans born a generation later earned $1,700 to $2,000 less annually.

These numbers are from The Opportunity Atlas, a website created by Harvard University and the U.S. Census Bureau. Using the website, I wrote a new report, "Going Backwards: In Tucson, economic mobility is declining." It documents that the Tucson region’s decline in economic mobility is real and affects the high-income as well as the low-income.

It is true that economic mobility went down nationally. But the decline in Tucson and Pima County was greater than the national decline and greater than the decline in most of the 11 cities with which UA researchers compare Tucson.

Economic mobility is important to individuals, but it also is important to the community. It is a measure of Tucson’s long-term economic health, a measure of whether we are providing for future prosperity.

When young adults earn more than the generation before them, they are better able to buy homes, start businesses, raise families, and develop financial security. They become the skilled workers employers need, and the customers local businesses depend upon. They pay the taxes local governments need for city services and infrastructure, and they support nonprofit organizations the community depends upon.

When young adults earn less, the effects spread downward throughout the community. Local tax revenues shrink, forcing cuts in public services. Poverty becomes more concentrated, harming schools, public health, and civic engagement. Residents face higher stress. Social fabrics fracture. Crime rates often rise. Employers have more difficulty finding qualified workers as some young people leave in search of better opportunities.

Yet Tucson has reason for hope. Other cities in addition to Portland saw economic mobility increase. They prove declining economic mobility is not inevitable. Local decisions matter.

Tucson has many of the assets needed to succeed: a major research university, strengths in aerospace, defense, optics, bioscience, and space science, committed nonprofit organizations, and civic leaders who care about the community’s future.

Tucson has taken initial steps to improve prosperity. Pima County and the City of Tucson created the Prosperity Initiative, which identifies 13 policy areas for reducing generational poverty. Then concerned leaders created the Community Coalition for Prosperity to help align broader community action with the Prosperity Initiative.

But our assets and these steps do not automatically create success. The decline revealed by the Opportunity Atlas suggests the Tucson region is not doing enough to provide for future prosperity.

We can do more. Three key suggestions from the nine in “Going Backwards” are:

• Expand early childhood education. Research shows early childhood education has a return on investment higher than any other strategy. Yet financial aid helps only 41% of the 13,000 eligible Tucson children.

• Fix the mismatch between the number of children needing childcare and the supply of affordable slots. This too often locks one low-income parent – particularly mothers – out of the workforce.

• Increase economic connectedness. Harvard researchers found friendships between low-income and high-income individuals to be the single strongest predictor of upward mobility.

Communities shape their own futures through the choices they make. For the sake of its future, Tucson needs to make increasing economic mobility one of our highest priorities.

If you are interested in reading the “Going Backwards” report and learning more about the Community Coalition for Prosperity and the Prosperity Initiative, visit the website for the Community Coalition for Prosperity. The report is also available on the website of the Center for Economic Integrity.