Analysis: Tom Suozzi offers Democrats a Rorschach test

So far, it’s been another uphill climb for the Long Island Democrat. Gov. Kathy Hochul holds all the advantages as she faces Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams in the June primary. And while Suozzi attended the Democratic State Convention in Manhattan a few weeks ago, he never entered his name for nomination. Hochul was this crew’s favorite.

And that’s the point Suozzi now makes as he launches his own TV ads railing against rising crime and high taxes. Last week he seemed downright proud of being ignored at a convention he says represented the party “establishment.” Suozzi insists he does not.

“If you want the same old, same old establishment candidate,” he told the Politics Column a few days ago, “you shouldn’t vote for me.”

Suozzi has been around long enough to earn his own establishment credentials – lawyer, mayor of Glen Cove, Nassau County executive, member of Congress. But now he embraces an outsider persona he believes lays out a path ending at the Governor’s Mansion.

“I’ve got a plan; I have a strategy, and I’m working hard,” he said. “And I believe if I execute this plan, I will win this race.”

This time around, Suozzi revels in his Italian-Irish roots, often points to his Italian immigrant father, and his own “common sense” brand of Democratic politics. Three hundred thousand New Yorkers leave the state each year, he says, which he blames on politicians soft on crime and eager to raise taxes.

Suozzi cares little for the bail reform laws he thinks allows criminals who should be in jail to roam the streets instead. He doesn’t like over-regulation driving businesses out of state. And though he won’t say it, he sounds a lot like Republicans running for governor.

“Yeah, but it’s a traditional Democratic message,” he says, noting he appeals to the “union guys” in bars and at church picnics the party has lost.

“People care about crime, taxes and schools,” he said, “basic bread-and-butter stuff.”

The congressman’s ads are among the bunch for various gubernatorial candidates saturating Buffalo airwaves in recent days, a sign of things to come. Those ads may struggle in some bellwether towns like Cheektowaga, where his “common sense Democrat” message might gain traction. This is Hochul turf, as is possibly most of upstate, and he knows it.

“I’ve got to be popular elsewhere,” he says, adding he thinks upstate has never fared very well anyway under the “same old, same old” Democratic leadership.

He faces other challenges – the kind Hochul will trumpet on TV if she senses any Suozzi climb in the polls. Last week, Business Insider reported Suozzi failed to properly report 31 stock trades that were months or years overdue, worth up to $885,000. Like other pols in the same situation, the Suozzi campaign noted his investments are managed by “independent advisors with discretion over all transactions.”

“Every transaction has been reported on his annual financial disclosure,” the campaign said, “and all proper periodic disclosures will be filed on a going-forward basis.”

Suozzi’s candidacy merits close attention precisely because of that ”union guy” appeal. Hochul has gained a “moderate” label, mostly from her congressional days in a Republican district, but is linked in every TV ad to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his policies. Williams eagerly embraces the party’s “progressive” wing.

So Suozzi’s path down the center becomes obvious. Is he on to something?

New York City voters sent a few Republicans to the City Council last year and chose moderate Eric Adams as their mayor over a slew of left-leaning challengers. Suozzi will take that appeal to his Long Island turf, the city’s outer boroughs, and as much of upstate as possible during the campaign.

And given the choice he offers voters, his efforts will very much define what kind of Democratic Party these days dominates New York State.