It’s that time of year to again fumble through the middle drawer of the Politics Column desk for an all-important instrument of political prognostication.
Amid the Ed-Rutkowski-for-County-Executive football cards, credentials for Walter Mondale’s visit to West Seneca during his 1984 presidential campaign, and an old shoe horn, we found our trusty Magic 8-Ball. The Oracle Orb. The Spherical See-er. The Poolball Predictor. We ask it again for a peek into the political year that lies ahead.
• Will the contest for governor of New York dominate the political headlines of 2022?
It is decidedly so.
Indeed, Democrats and Republicans alike will be gunning for Gov. Kathy Hochul as she seeks her own four-year term this fall. Since taking over for Andrew Cuomo following his August resignation, the Buffalo resident has employed all the powers of incumbency to shore up her position, and so far that seems to be working.
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Hochul has gained the backing of state Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs, many of the state’s Democratic county organizations, is raising money at a dizzying rate and scores well in the polls.
But already New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi of Nassau County have declared their Democratic candidacies. Former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is expected to join the fray soon.
On the Republican side, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino looks to reprise his 2014 gubernatorial candidacy, but the party apparatus is lining up behind Rep. Lee Zeldin of Suffolk County.
• Will the Democrats stage a knock-down, drag-out fight in their gubernatorial primary?
Signs point to yes.
That’s because they are Democrats, and they will battle not only for the gubernatorial nod, but for the soul of their party as well. Williams and de Blasio will campaign from the left, while Suozzi drifts toward the middle via his “common sense” approach. And who knows where Hochul is this week? The primary will allow New York’s Democratic voters to decide just what kind of party they want going forward.
Meanwhile, the new governor scored points in many sectors with her Wednesday State of the State speech. She ventured into Suozzi territory by promising tax cuts and new initiatives against gun violence, while proposing social programs that shore up her liberal credentials.
• Does any Republican have a chance in super-Democratic New York?
Outlook not so good.
The GOP has failed to elect a statewide candidate since Gov. George Pataki in 2002. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 3 million voters in New York. And the reapportionment process could render them irrelevant.
But many see 2022 as a Republican year. And the GOP seems to like Zeldin, an Iraq War veteran with a history of winning elections.
• Will the Democrats run scads of TV ads highlighting Zeldin’s support for Donald Trump?
You may rely on it.
Fealty to the former president will serve Zeldin well in a primary, but Trump does not play well in New York.
• Will the Independent Redistricting Commission’s plans for new congressional districts really preserve the traditional Southern Tier District?
Reply hazy, try again.
A district running from Lake Erie to Broome County has survived the first cut, even with Republican incumbent Tom Reed retiring. But the State Legislature and its super majority of Democrats will have the final say.
• Will former State Senator Cathy Young of Olean seek a Southern Tier District seat?
Cannot predict now.
But if the veteran lawmaker still has the itch, she retains about $425,000 her campaign kitty. Several observers say she may come out of political retirement.
• Will New York State again provide some of the best politics watching anywhere?
It is certain.
