Brandon Beane did me a solid.
Preparing for my fifth annual “GM for a Day” column has been a chore this offseason. With uncertainty surrounding the NFL’s 2021 salary cap – it was finally set at $182.5 million Wednesday – and several decisions to make surrounding that, even sitting in Beane’s chair for one day drives home the challenges the Buffalo Bills’ general manager faces in the coming months.
Beane gave me an assist Wednesday, releasing wide receiver John Brown and defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson to free up some much-needed cap space. He also ironed out pay cuts for center Mitch Morse and defensive tackle Vernon Butler Jr. The deadline for using either the franchise or transition tag came and went Tuesday without either being applied to any of the team’s 13 pending unrestricted free agents.
Last week, safety Micah Hyde agreed to a two-year contract extension.
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Then, the big work came Thursday – with a four-year contract extension for linebacker Matt Milano providing clarity on arguably the Bills' most important pending free agent. Despite that, Beane’s work is only just beginning. Or in this case, my work.
The goal for 2021 is simple: Super Bowl or bust. The team’s first AFC East title since 1995 and a trip to the AFC championship game solidified the Bills as one of the NFL’s top teams.
“We’re gonna get people’s best and we know that,” Beane said at his end-of-season press conference. “Next year is a new year, though. Nothing we did will matter when we start in this offseason or when we start camp. Every team will be built with new players, so we’ll have to hit the reset button. We’ve got a lot of work to do to try and get this thing going and build a team that can earn its way back to where we were and hopefully further.”
Teams can begin negotiating with agents for pending unrestricted free agents starting Monday, while deals can be finalized when the NFL’s new league year officially begins at 4 p.m. Wednesday.
Waiting is no fun, though, so let’s get down to business. Here are the moves I would make if I occupied Beane’s chair:
Making more room
Releasing Brown and Jefferson was just a start. Before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the Bills and every other NFL team were expecting the 2021 salary cap to be in the neighborhood of $210 million.
Instead, it’s $182.5 million, nearly $28 million less. The Bills’ adjusted cap after accounting for rollovers and adjustments from last year is $188,376,959.
“It’s one of those things, you wish we knew that a year ago,” Beane said of the reduced cap. “Maybe we wouldn’t have made every move we did. Maybe we wouldn’t have been as aggressive in some areas.”
What’s done is done, though, so it’s time to free up more space. The Bills have about $15.2 million in cap space, according to contracts website Spotrac.com, although that total will go up when the details of Butler’s pay cut are made public and Morse’s reduction is factored in. We’ll take an educated guess and say Butler’s pay cut will come out to $2 million, which puts cap space at $17.2 million for our starting purposes.
The easiest move to add space is to release veteran tight end Lee Smith. He’s a great guy and respected leader in the locker room, but $2.25 million is way too much for a blocking tight end.
It gets harder from there. At his end-of-season press conference, head coach Sean McDermott referenced the “disease of me,” a phrase coined by legendary basketball coach Pat Riley to describe those who put personal agendas over organizational success.
“No, it's because all of us, and that's the mindset we have to continue to have around here,” McDermott said. “It’s got to stay that very unselfish approach to how we do things and why we do things the way we do here.”
That will lead to some uncomfortable, but necessary, conversations. The first is with defensive end Mario Addison, who turns 34 before the start of next season. Addison is scheduled to count $10.16 million against the cap in 2021, money that is not commensurate with his production. The Bills owe Addison an $800,000 roster bonus within five days of the start of the new league year, so time is of the essence. My offer, which he can take or leave, is a $3 million pay cut, of which he can earn back $1 million through incentives. Given the expected market for free agents, Addison would be wise to stick around despite the reduced salary.
Next is linebacker Tyler Matakevich. He was solid on special teams in 2020, but $3.7 million is steep for a player who does not contribute defensively. Matakevich will be asked to reduce that amount by $1 million.
The next contract to target belongs to Stefon Diggs, but he’s not taking a pay cut. The Bills’ superstar receiver finds himself underpaid after leading the NFL in catches and receiving yards in his first season in Buffalo. I can fix that … while creating cap space in 2021. As it stands, Diggs is scheduled to count a shade more than $13 million against the cap in 2021. The Bills can offer him a two-year extension at the magical number of $20 million per season, which puts him in the upper echelon of wide receivers, but in so doing, they can request that he converts a big chunk of his base salary of $12.4 million into a signing bonus. If the Bills converted $10 million of that figure into a signing bonus, they can spread it over the five years remaining on his deal (following the extension), creating $8 million in cap space this year. It’s a win-win for the player and team. Diggs will be signed through his age-32 season, which isn’t outrageous, pairing him with quarterback Josh Allen for the long term.
Two other restructures that make sense are converting $4 million of safety Jordan Poyer’s contract into a signing bonus and $5 million of cornerback Tre’Davious White’s deal. That’s another $6 million ($2 million from Poyer, $4 million from White) that comes off this year’s cap.
Those moves amount to about $20 million in cap savings, which should get me to about $37 million after the moves Beane made for me. That’s a far cry from the $80-plus million Beane took into free agency last year, but it’s my starting point for the business of the offseason, when only the team’s top 51 contracts count against the salary cap.
Staying home
With some cap space freed up, it’s time to sort out who from last year’s roster I’m keeping. There are 13 decisions to be made. That list includes defensive end Trent Murphy, cornerback Josh Norman, tight end Tyler Kroft, offensive linemen Ty Nsekhe, Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams and Brian Winters, wide receivers Andre Roberts and Isaiah McKenzie, quarterback Matt Barkley, safety Dean Marlowe, and running backs Taiwan Jones and T.J. Yeldon.
Beane took care of the toughest call by re-signing Milano. By failing to use the franchise tag, the Bills seemingly had shown a willingness to let Milano get to the open market. Instead, they stuck to Beane's desired method of roster building: Draft, develop, re-sign. Beane has now done that with White, Dion Dawkins and Milano – a strong message to the rest of the team.
Milano has given the Bills way more than they could have reasonably expected as a fifth-round draft pick in 2017. It says a lot about the culture the front office and coaching staff have built that he passed up a chance to find out his true worth on the open market to re-sign on a four-year deal that could reportedly pay him up to $44 million if all incentives are reached. The structure of Milano's deal will be important. Let's say the Bills keep the first-year cap hit to $8 million. That leaves them with $29 million in space for our purposes.
The next-toughest decision deals with offensive tackle Daryl Williams. Beane stole him in free agency last year, getting high-level play at right tackle for just $2.5 million. Given the dearth of offensive tackles on the market and Williams’ age (28), he’s going to get a heck of a lot more than that in 2021.
Regrettably, Williams likely priced himself out of Buffalo.
Next on the priority list is Feliciano. Earlier in the offseason, it looked like a foregone conclusion that he’d be back. Allen and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll both love him, and Feliciano has the versatility to play guard and center, which makes him all the more valuable.
So what’s the holdup? Money. Contracts website spotrac.com estimates Feliciano will receive a four-year contract with an average annual value of $8.3 million. That’s big money for a player who has been good, but not great, during his two seasons with the Bills. Feliciano ranked as the No. 40 guard in the NFL in 2020, according to analytics website Pro Football Focus. His value to the Bills is likely higher than that because of his presence in the locker room, but not at more than $8 million per season.
Feliciano tweeting out “12 games no sacks” last week suggests contract negotiations aren’t going great. He’s moving on, too.
Other players from the list of 13 whom I expect to sign elsewhere include Murphy, Kroft and Roberts. Yeldon, Nsekhe, Winters and Norman also will not be brought back.
Welcome back
With all those players walking out the door, the Bills’ list of needs is long. Backup quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, edge rusher, No. 2 cornerback and multiple starting-caliber offensive linemen are on my wish list.
Yikes.
We’ll start with some moves that should be relatively easy.
Barkley has a great relationship with Allen and fits the Bills’ culture. While an on-field upgrade might be available in free agency (hello, Ryan Fitzpatrick), with money tight, I’m re-signing Barkley for one year at $2 million and crossing my fingers Allen stays healthy.
I’m also bringing back McKenzie, who has carved out a role in Daboll’s offense and has increased value as a possible returner with Roberts leaving. After that, I’m re-signing Marlowe as a trusted veteran who knows McDermott’s system inside and out, and Jones to contribute on special teams. Both of them get veteran-minimum deals.
Those four moves reduce my available cap space to $23 million.
The Bills have three restricted free agents whom I’d like to retain, but I’m not going to make qualifying offers. Instead, similar to what happened with McKenzie last season, guard Ike Boettger, punter Corey Bojorquez and cornerback Levi Wallace can all reach the open market, with the hope they are willing to re-sign for less than the qualifying offer, which is $2.1 million.
Bojorquez had a great season in 2020, so he gets a three-year, $8 million deal, structured so that just $2 million counts against this year’s cap. Boettger and Wallace each get one-year deals worth $1.5 million, providing quality depth. That takes my cap space down to $20 million.
Shopping the bargain bin
Releasing Smith and retaining the above players only gets me to 60 players on the active roster. Add in seven draft picks, and that’s 67, well less than the 90-man offseason limit.
Only backup quarterback has been crossed off the list of needs, so it’s time to hit the clearance rack.
Kansas City’s Mike Remmers isn’t a household name, but he stepped into the starting lineup for the Chiefs after All-Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz got hurt and did a commendable job. Remmers is capable of playing right tackle in Buffalo. He gets the same contract Nsekhe did – two years, $10 million – slightly back loaded. Oh, and this will help – he spent 2014-16 with the Carolina Panthers. You may have heard, but Beane and McDermott were there at the time.
Beane has consistently said he does not like being boxed into a position on draft day, and Remmers would prevent that from being the case.
Baltimore’s Matt Skura played right guard as a rookie in 2017, before spending the last three years at center. He was benched by the Ravens in 2020, so he goes into free agency at the wrong time. He would provide the same versatility as Feliciano at what should be a much lesser price.
In each of the last two offseasons, the Bills have added a veteran cornerback looking to rebuild his value. In 2019, it was Kevin Johnson. Last season, it was Norman. In 2021, that role goes to former Broncos cornerback A.J. Bouye. His market will be depressed because he still needs to serve two games of a six-game league suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. With Wallace back and Dane Jackson ready to compete for a larger role, the Bills can add Bouye as an insurance policy.
Those three contracts take up $8 million of space, leaving me with $12 million.
The draft
The Bills will need about $4 million of cap space to sign rookies who will factor into the top 51 salaries.
Projecting what to do in the draft requires knowing who is on the board when my turn comes up. Picking at No. 30 overall in the first round, that’s awfully tough to do. For assistance, I used the mock draft machine available at profootballnetwork.com.
With the No. 30 pick, Michigan offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield is the pick. Mayfield gives me a potential starting option at right tackle. It’s a perfect match of need with available talent.
I start Day Two with a trade out of the second round, sending No. 61 to the Bengals for No. 69 and No. 111 in the fourth round. With the 69th pick, Vanderbilt edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo gives the Bills another prospect to hopefully develop.
At No. 93, North Carolina wide receiver Dyami Brown would be a solid addition to the Bills’ offense. Brown had more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons, collecting 20 touchdown catches and averaging more than 20 yards per catch.
Remaining orders of business
With about $8 million left in cap space, the well is just about dry. Before clocking out for the day, though, there are two more priorities.
The first is easy – exercising the fifth-year contract options for Allen and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. That buys some time to work out a long-term extension for the quarterback, which could come as soon as this summer. (I’m leaving that up to Beane – I can’t do everything for him.)
The last position unaddressed is tight end. Tampa Bay’s Cameron Brate is under contract for three more seasons at $6.5 million in 2021, $6.8 million in 2022 and $7.5 million in 2023.
With the Bucs projected to be over the salary cap when the new league year starts next season, they’ll need to do some maneuvering. The Bills could wait and see if Brate is a cap casualty, or they could send a late-round draft pick to Tampa Bay to get their guy. The Bills could then rework Brate’s deal, turning $5 million of his 2021 salary into a signing bonus, which would drop his cap hit to a little more than $3 million.
That would leave about $5 million in cap room for moves to be made during the season.
With that, I’m happy to turn things back over to Beane, but first, here’s a look at what the Bills’ projected starting lineup would look like heading into 2021:
Quarterback: Josh Allen
Running back: Devin Singletary/Zack Moss
Tight end: Cameron Brate/Dawson Knox
Wide receivers: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis
Offensive line: Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mitch Morse, Ike Boettger, Mike Remmers/Jalen Mayfield
Defensive line: Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Mario Addison
Linebackers: Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds
Secondary: Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Taron Johnson
Specialists: Reid Ferguson, Tyler Bass, Corey Bojorquez
