This is the third in a series examining the Buffalo Bills’ free-agent possibilities at key positions. Today's installment looks at edge rusher.
Edge rusher has been universally identified as the Bills' most pressing offseason need.
How they go about filling it is less clear.
There's the draft, but with the 30th overall pick, the Bills could be selecting too low to land one of the premiere players at the position. Trading up is a possibility, though the Bills might lack the necessary options to enhance their position significantly enough for such a deal to be worthwhile.
That leaves the free-agent market or a trade for an established edge rusher to complement Jerry Hughes. Of course, just as with enhancing their draft position, the cost of picks would seem to make such a deal unlikely.
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The Bills already made what was viewed as more than a cursory run at one free-agent edge rusher, former Houston Texans end J.J. Watt, but he chose instead to sign with the Arizona Cardinals. Watt received a two-year deal worth $28 million, including $23 million guaranteed.
Whether that provided a sense of what the Bills consider the ceiling for an edge rusher in free agency or simply what they thought was the value of a soon-to-be-32-year-old player with an extensive injury history is unknown.
The Bills could still go the route of an existing free-agent end with Carlos Dunlap, who was recently released by the Seattle Seahawks and turned 32 in February. He was due to count $14.1 million against the cap, but would undoubtedly have to settle for much less from his new team, probably in the form of a one-year contract.
What is known is that it won't be any cheaper – and likely more expensive – to sign one of the top projected free-agent edge rushers.
In house: End Trent Murphy is the Bills' only unrestricted free-agent edge rusher. He isn't expected to return.
Top of the heap: End Shaq Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After his 19.5 sacks helped the Bucs on their run to a Super Bowl championship, he has set himself up for a massive payday. The analytics website Pro Football Focus projects Barrett to receive a four-year contract that will average $17 million per season, with $40 million guaranteed.
Edge Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens. He played last season on the franchise tag and the Ravens opted against tagging him again, given the sizable salary increase. He had six sacks in 14 games after posting 9.5 sacks in 2019. Spotrac.com projects his market value at $15.6 million per year on a four-year agreement.
End Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals. Assuming the Bengals allow him to enter the open market, which isn't a lock, he could be a nice fit. Lawson performed well last season, his fourth, while playing a career-high 483 snaps in 12 games. He was credited with 59 pressures on a relatively low 389 rushes. Shortly after the franchise tag deadline passed Tuesday, he posted a photo of himself at a gym with the words, "Guns for hire." PFF projects his salary at $13.7 million per year, with $30 million guaranteed.
Names to know: End Trey Hendrickson, New Orleans Saints. He had 13.5 sacks last season and does a terrific job of consistently applying pressure. Hendrickson also is a solid run defender. At 26 years old, he figures to continue to improve. PFF projects that the Bills will sign Hendrickson to a four-year, $45 million deal (an average of $11.25 million per season), including $25 million guaranteed.
Edge Haason Reddick, Arizona. The Cardinals didn't place a franchise tag on him and aren't likely to make an effort to retain him after signing Watt. He was tied for fourth in the NFL with 12.5 sacks, though five came against the New York Giants in Week 14. He led the league with six forced fumbles. Spotrac.com projects Reddick's market value to be a deal averaging $11.7 million per year on a four-year contract.
Edge Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh Steelers. He hasn't been as dominant a pass-rusher as his non-stop aggressive style of play would suggest. However, Dupree isn't a great fit for the Steelers' blitz-happy scheme and would figure to do better as part of the more defensive-line-reliant style that the Bills play. According to PFF, Dupree is expected to be willing to take a one-year prove-it deal of $10 million, with $7.5 million guaranteed.
Under the radar option: Edge Deatrich Wise Jr., New England Patriots. In the past two years, he has 57 pressures on 452 rushes. PFF has him with a top-10 pass-rush win rate over that period. Wise's run defense leaves something to be desired. PFF sees him getting a three-year deal averaging $7 million per season, with $12 million guaranteed.
