Bills Mailbag: One stat has to change for Bills to beat the Chiefs

Scott Chomistek asks: What is the most important matchup that the Bills need to win to win the game?

Jay: The defense has got to get off the field on third down. In Week 6, the Chiefs converted 9 of 14 third downs. That allowed them to dominate time of possession, 37:45 to 22:15. The Bills’ defense is going to have to give the offense more chances than that. The best way to have more success on third down is to, obviously, limit the gains on first and second down.

TheRealNova asks: Does Josh Allen go for 400 yards and four touchdowns? How many interceptions does Tre’Davious White have? This will be a coming-out party for Brian Daboll. Since he didn’t get a head-coaching gig, he’s going all-in on this one, not holding anything back for King Josh ... thoughts?

Joey asks: I believe Josh Allen is about to have his best game of the year in the biggest moment. Thoughts?

bk asks: Do you get the feeling that the Bills are going to let Josh Allen play like he has all year or are we going to play "not to lose" like we did in the first game? I say let him go and see what happens. We have the offense to compete.

Jay: I'm on record as picking the Bills. I don't know if Allen goes for 400 yards and four touchdowns, but I agree with bk that the Bills have the offense to hang with Kansas City. We have seen Daboll have a trick or two up his sleeve before, so that's a possibility, as well. The Bills will need Allen and the offense to get back to their high-scoring ways of the regular season after a down week against Baltimore in the divisional round. The Chiefs' defense is not on the same level as the Ravens, though, so that should be possible.

Rick McGuire asks: Think there's any chance of Brandon Beane signing running back Mark Ingram, who was recently released by Baltimore and just cleared waivers? Even at 31 years old, he could be a great Zack Moss replacement for these final two (yes, two) games. Think maybe?

Jay: There is definitely a chance Beane has repeatedly said the process of trying to improve the roster never stops. Especially now with an expanded practice squad, the Bills could absolutely take a look at Ingram if they consider him to be an upgrade over someone currently on the roster. If there is indeed another game after this week, it’s not a bad idea.

John Jarzynski asks: Bills have a great red zone offense. Chiefs have a great red zone defense. Who wins that battle?

Jay: I think you may be looking at the wrong stat, John. The Chiefs actually rank dead last in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns 76.6% of the time. That’s a clear advantage for the Bills entering the game.

Trevor Cohn asks: Do you think the Bills will record their first safety of the season against the Chiefs?

Jay: Are you looking to place a prop bet, Trevor? This is an oddly specific question. I’ll go with, no, that doesn’t happen this week.

Alex Swann asks: I'm looking at a rainy forecast for Sunday. How does that impact Josh Allen's game and the game overall?

Jay: As long as it's not a monsoon, I'd say it will be a minimal impact. The wind is usually a bigger factor for the passing game, and it's forecasted to be light. Neither offense should be too worried about the weather.

Max asks: Any changes in the starting running backs?

Jay: No. Devin Singletary is going to be the guy for the Bills.

Internet Guy asks: How are the Bills going to cover Travis Kelce?

Jay: Great question. If you’ve got any ideas, hit up Leslie Frazier. Here’s what the Bills’ defensive coordinator said earlier this week: “He's arguably the best tight end in our game and he can do so many things so well, and they move him around so much, they put him at the No. 1 position, they put him at 2, they put him at 3 sometimes. He's in the backfield. I mean, he just creates a lot of problems for your defense.”

The Bills will have Matt Milano back for this game, which should be a big boost for the defense after he missed the Week 6 meeting. Completely shutting out Kelce probably isn’t going to happen, but the Bills have to hope Milano’s presence means the Chiefs’ star doesn’t wreck the game for Buffalo’s defense.

Jack Lewis asks: I really believe that the only way we’re going to beat this team is to get all the receivers involved. It can’t just be Stefon Diggs. Which of the other receivers have the best chance of having a big day?

Jay: The two obvious choices are John Brown and Cole Beasley. If I was choosing between those two, I’d say Brown. Beasley has been dealing with a knee injury and has the slightly tougher matchup than Brown. Across the board, the Bills have to like how their receivers match up with Kansas City’s secondary, though, so it could be any of them who turns in a big day.

Michael asks: Why do people overall keep heavily doubting the Bills? Is it still our past or they just really don’t think we can keep it up?

Jay: This is simply not true. The Bills were favored last week against Baltimore. Every local prediction I saw had them winning the game. This myth about them being “doubted” gets perpetuated by the team’s social media account and the players themselves finding the few national predictions that went against them and highlighting them after the fact. “Nobody believed in us” is the oldest motivational tool in the book … even if it’s not true. Plenty of people have believed in this team all along. That’s just not as much fun. As for being underdogs against Kansas City, well, that’s fair. The Chiefs are the defending champions, they’re at home as the No. 1 seed and they have the best player in football. They also beat the Bills on the road this season. Why wouldn’t they be favored?

JD asks: All the talk this week is about Patrick Mahomes, but what are the odds of either Vernon Butler or Gabriel Davis playing? DNPs aren’t looking good!

Thomas Larsen asks: Let's say Gabe Davis cannot go Sunday -- do you bring in a tall guy, Duke Williams, or a speed guy, Kenny Stills?

Stephen asks: Thoughts on Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley injuries … so they call someone up, and who would you think? Even though Mahomes is lethal vs. the blitz, do you think Bills test him with that right foot injury? It may burn us, but also may be worth it.

Jay: The Bills got some good news on the injury report Friday when both Davis and Butler were able to practice on a limited basis. They’re officially listed as questionable, but with it being the AFC Championship Game, you have to think they’d give it a go. If Davis can’t play, I’d lean toward Williams being active, since Stills is a bit more of a vertical threat, and Brown can fill that role for the offense.

As for Mahomes’ injury …

Sam Ruggiero asks: Concussion aside, do you think Patrick Mahomes’ toe injury will cause our defense to blitz more? Are we then making it easier for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to have a huge game instead of their running back to flourish like the first game this season?

Luke asks: Do you think Mahomes will have any issues with what appears to be turf toe?

Keith Pascucci asks: I believe the Bills have to pressure Patrick Mahomes from all angles. If that toe is bad, he will be in for a long night.

Jay: I absolutely think Mahomes’ toe injury will have an impact on this game. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats had a great chart this week that showed where every quarterback playing this week released every pass from this season. Mahomes’ release points were all over the field, far more than even Allen. The Kansas City quarterback uses his mobility to keep plays alive, always keeping his eyes down the field looking for the big play. If he’s not able to move quite as well because of his toe injury, that’s a big deal. As for blitzing, the Bills did almost none of it in the first meeting. Mahomes typically destroys the blitz, so I wouldn’t expect the Bills to drastically change their approach. I do think Frazier will have some designed blitzes because he’s not likely to just repeat the Week 6 game plan, but if the game starts and it’s clear Mahomes isn’t moving as well as he usually does, that could mean Frazier adjusts his approach to be more aggressive.

Grateful Dad asks: How important will the Bills’ running game be?

Jack Keough asks: Not that we run the ball all that much, but is there a chance Antonio Williams could play? (I really miss Zack Moss. Good runner, good pass catcher, decent blocker).

Jay: According to Football Outsiders, the Bills ran on just 30% of their plays in the first half of games this season, which was the third-lowest rate in the league (excluding quarterback scrambles). In six games against defenses in the bottom 10 of the league, though, the Bills ran 38% of the time. Kansas City is in the bottom 10 against the run … but the Bills did not run the ball well against them in the first meeting, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. I would not count on running the ball being a huge part of the offense this time around. As for Williams, he was promoted to the active roster last week, but was not active for the game. Given that the running game could use any kind of a spark, it’s certainly within reason that he could dress for the game.

Caleb asks: Trent Murphy had a solid game vs. Baltimore. Do you see him being active over A.J. Epenesa or Darryl Johnson Jr., if he’s healthy?

Jay: Tough one. It’s definitely possible if the Bills feel like Murphy can help with the run defense. Remember, he also did not play in the Week 6 loss to the Chiefs. I don’t see him playing over Epenesa. So the question then comes down to Johnson’s contributions on special teams versus what Murphy brings as a run defender. If it were my decision, I’d play Murphy, but my thinking is the coaching staff will disagree with me and go with the lineup they used over most of the second half of the season.

Ed Helinski asks: In your estimation, what’s going to be the most favorable offensive matchup for the Bills against Kansas City?

Jay: Stefon Diggs against whomever lines up across from him. Diggs was held to just 46 yards in the first meeting between the two teams, his second-lowest single-game total of the regular season, but he’s been on an absolute tear since then. Diggs has had 92 yards or more in six of his last seven games – and the only one in there that he didn’t, he had 76 yards in the first half against Miami in Week 17 before sitting out the rest of the game. There is nobody on the Chiefs’ defense that can check Diggs one on one.

Jeffrey Miller asks: What hours do sportswriters keep? Especially with the late games. What are your deadlines? I know there isn’t enough time to get everything in for the print edition, but what about the online edition? And I gather you start writing articles before the game is over. And I see Vic seems to stay home. On a typical weeknight, do you punch out at 5:00 and go home and teach Elliott about the finer points of life, like sports, and pamper my favorite Ch. 2 news anchor, or does work follow you home?

Jay: During football season, my typical days off with a Sunday game are Tuesday and Friday. Games days are pretty long – I get to the stadium by 10 a.m. for a 1 p.m. kickoff and write until about 9 p.m. We have a couple different deadlines, and depending on the situation, they can be flexible. For example, with a late game last week against Baltimore, our stories for the print edition needed to be filed by 12:30 a.m. Usually, it’s earlier than that, but with a big game, we got some extra time. Updates to the online edition can be made at any time. Vic has worked from home this season due to reduced capacity in the press box because of Covid-19 protocols. Hopefully by September, things are back to normal in that regard. The job definitely does not have “9 to 5” hours. We don’t punch in and punch out, but it’s understood that when news breaks, we’ll be there to report on it. Working from home is common, but especially this year it has become the norm.

butch asks: I’m sure the Mafia wants to know what time we can expect the plane to land back in Buffalo? I assume it will be very late, especially with a win. Postgame ceremony, locker room party, etc. would delay it.

Jay: Indeed, it will be very late … but that’s not going to matter, will it? I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around just how many people are going to be there if the Bills clinch a spot in the Super Bowl. I would guess it would land about 2 a.m., but that’s a rough estimate. A request to those who do attend: Wear a mask, and clean up after yourself. Those who have left behind the absolute mess at the airport and at the Transit Drive-In should be ashamed of themselves. It’s a bad look for all who are involved.

Luigi Mike Speranza asks: A lot of controversy about the garbage Bills fans leave after games and events like the recent local drive-in viewing of the playoff game. You've traveled throughout the NFL nation for years. Are we in fact more guilty than the other NFL fans? Truth now Jay!

Jay: Not more guilty – every NFL parking lot looks like a tornado blew through after a game -- but for all the good Bills Mafia does, it doesn’t seem like too much to ask to clean up after themselves.

Louis Stromberg asks: The Bills are back in the ‘ship! In honor of such a glorious occasion, please rank the following ships: Battleship (the game), car dealerships, Starship Troopers, Rodrigo Blankenship, scholarships. Go Bills!

Jay: 5. Car dealerships. I just want to know the price, man. No more games. 4. Starship Troopers. Not a big science fiction guy. 3. Rodrigo Blankenship. I’m a sucker for any “walk-on earns a scholarship” story. Plus, he rocks those glasses. 2. Battleship. Definitely the game, definitely not the movie. 1. Scholarships. How young is too young to get a golf scholarship? Asking for my son. Enjoy the game, Bills fans!