TAMPA, Fla. – Here’s the big-picture analysis of the Buffalo Bills’ loss Sunday to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
In the second half, the Bills held the Bucs to 110 yards, including just 44 on the ground. But the turnaround went for naught.
Did the Bills somehow get their mojo back with their second-half comeback?
This was not a moral victory in any way, but you have to respect the way the Bills pulled together after a miserable first half.
If the Bills had staggered to a 38-13 loss, for example, the internal pressure on them would have grown even more. The feeling within the team that they were coming apart would have been inescapable. The frustration and disappointment within the team would have been harder to handle.
Will this result mean anything more than a loss? That depends on what they do the next two weeks.
Obviously, the Carolina game at home Sunday is a must-win. Then they get the chance to redeem themselves at New England. Can they close the regular season 4-0? Most of the past two months suggests the answer is no. The second half in Tampa keeps it an open question.
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Seemingly left for dead at halftime Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, the Buffalo Bills rallied from a 24-3 deficit to tie the game, 27-27, and force overtime.
How worried should we be that the Bills will miss the playoffs?
Reasonably worried. Pro Football Focus rates Buffalo’s odds at making the playoffs at 67% and the odds of winning the AFC East at 44%. The New York Times’ “playoff machine” says 65% to make the playoffs, 19% to win the division.
I still like their chances. If the Bills play close to their ability, they should finish at least 3-1 by beating Carolina and Atlanta and the hapless New York Jets, all at home. That would get them to 10-7, with a record of 6-6 in conference. It’s not guaranteed that would get them in.
They have to beat out two of the following four teams: the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), Cincinnati (7-6) and Cleveland (7-6). Indianapolis might not get to 10 wins because of a tough schedule (Pats, Cards, Raiders, Jaguars). But if they get to 10, they have a tie-breaker edge on the Bills.
The Chargers have a good chance to get to 10 wins and 8-4 in conference games against the Chiefs, Texans, Broncos and Raiders. The Bengals face the Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Browns. Cleveland finishes with the Raiders, Packers, Steelers and Bengals.
Can the Bills’ offense excel without the running of Josh Allen?
Not against a good defense. That offensive coordinator Brian Daboll relied on the pass was no surprise. The fact that the Bills did not hand the ball off to a running back one time in the first half is an indictment of the offensive line. It’s an admission that the Bills’ coaches don’t have enough confidence in the blocking. Yes, the Bucs’ front seven is great, No. 2 vs. the run. Yes, a lot of those short passes in the first half were akin to long handoffs. But no RB runs, no attempts to get wide on the Bucs’ defense was a loud statement.
The Bills’ offense needs Allen to be great. This team is not balanced enough to win three playoff games ... or maybe even one playoff game ... if they even make the playoffs.
