When the Bills run: Devin Singletary hasn’t topped 30 rushing yards in the past three games, while Zack Moss has just 80 yards over that same time span, so it’s been a prolonged slump for the top two running backs. Quarterback Josh Allen’s production on the ground has kept the team total respectable, but the Bills don’t want to have to continue to rely on Allen’s legs to move the ball. EDGE: Bills.
When the Bills pass: Allen has at least two touchdown passes and a passer rating of more than 100 in five consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Jacksonville has arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, allowing 278.1 passing yards per game. Tyson Campbell, the No. 33 overall pick in April’s draft, has really struggled, allowing 16.5 yards per catch, according to analytics website Pro Football Focus. EDGE: Bills.
When the Jaguars run: Running back James Robinson was recently named to PFF’s midseason All-Pro second team. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Robinson suffered a heel injury in Week 8 against Seattle, and sat out of practice in the early part of the week. He has carried 88 times for 482 yards this season – a healthy average of 5.5 yards per attempt – and has five touchdowns. If Robinson can’t play, veteran Carlos Hyde is likely to see the bulk of the carries. Hyde has 140 yards on 33 attempts, two of which have produced touchdowns. The Bills’ run defense has allowed just 13 runs of 10 or more yards. EDGE: Bills.
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When the Jaguars pass: Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft, could be in for a long day. The Bills are tied for the NFL lead with 11 interceptions, including three each from safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The Bills have a streak of 12 consecutive wins – with 18 interceptions – against opposing quarterbacks with 16 or fewer starts, according to the Associated Press. Lawrence has thrown eight interceptions, which is tied for second most in the NFL. Jacksonville’s offensive line has allowed just 10 sacks, tied for fourth-fewest entering Week 9. Wide receiver Laviska Shenault is averaging 6.2 yards after the catch, according to PFF, which is tied for fifth among receivers with at least 39 targets. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: Bills second-year kicker Tyler Bass, the AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for October, is just the third player since 1950 to record 212 or more points in his first 23 regular-season games. The Jaguars are just 3 for 7 on field goals, although new kicker Matthew Wright, who replaced Josh Lambo last month, has gone 2 of 3 on kicks of 50-plus yards and made his only other attempt. EDGE: Bills.
Coaching: Urban Meyer is learning the hard way that you can’t coach in the NFL with the same iron fist he ruled with in college. He’s dealing with adults at this level, and respect is a major factor. Meyer lost that when he was photographed in a bar with a woman who wasn’t his wife after he failed to return to Florida with the team following a loss on "Thursday Night Football." Ask yourself this: Could you ever imagine Sean McDermott being in a similar situation? The answer, of course, is no. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Meyer is one and done. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 37, Jaguars 14.
