Bills' Josh Allen will receive votes for NFL MVP. But enough to win? We asked voters

Buffalo News sports reporter Vic Carucci, one of 50 voters tabbed by the Associated Press to select the NFL All-Pro team and assorted year-end honors, publicly pledged his ballot to Allen after the Bills dismantled the Patriots, 38-9, on "Monday Night Football" in Foxborough, Mass.

“Without a doubt, he has in my mind solidified the argument that he should be MVP,” Carucci told WGRZ's Adam Benigni on "Sports Talk Live." “The oddsmakers say he’s third on the list behind Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. I think he is at the top of that list. The balloting ends on Jan. 5. I’m a voter for the AP. I can tell you who I’m casting my ballot for, and it’s not a homer vote. The guy is legit.”

Interviews with more than a half-dozen voters, including a couple with Buffalo connections in Hall of Fame General Manager Bill Polian and Hall of Fame wide receiver James Lofton, in addition to Peter King of NBC Sports, Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com, Paul Domowitch of the Philadelphia Daily News/Inquirer and Nate Davis and Jarrett Bell of USA Today, indicate Carucci isn’t alone in his thinking.

Voters who spoke with The News stressed they could only speak for themselves, as they hadn’t discussed the topic with other voters, but the conversations in aggregate also reinforced the notion that Allen is a longshot to win.

Rodgers, the Green Bay quarterback, is the heavy favorite, receiving 2/9 odds from BetOnline.ag, followed by Mahomes (13/4), the Kansas City quarterback, then Allen (9/1). Tennessee running back Derrick Henry, a distant fourth at 22/1 a week ago, is off the board.

“In the last dozen years or more, it’s become a quarterback’s award, since Peyton Manning came to the fore,” said AP sports writer Barry Wilner, who doesn’t cast a ballot but has overseen the voting process for a quarter century. “So it’s hard for anyone from another position to win it, and especially in a year when you have quarterbacks having great seasons. I think Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen are all in the conversation.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those three guys win it.”

The 2020 MVP award winner is expected to be announced during Super Bowl week, Wilner said. The league has yet to set a date for its annual award show, "NFL Honors," because of scheduling uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It typically airs the night before the game.

The last seven MVP awards have gone to QBs – Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, Tom Brady (his third), Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Rodgers (second) and Peyton Manning (fifth) – since running back Adrian Peterson claimed the hardware in 2012. Quarterbacks have won the award in 17 of the last 20 years. Two were honored in 2003, when Manning and Steve McNair were named co-MVPs.

The AP does not provide specific guidelines for voters to consider. It’s up to each individual to determine the criteria he or she deems important for choosing MVP, weighing statistical production, consistency, team success, the surrounding talent and a host of factors.

“It’s that whole water cooler debate of what’s most valuable,” Davis said. “Is it the guy with the best stats or is it the guy who’s most indispensable to his team? It’s kind of left up to the individual voter to decide who gets your vote.”

It’s generally understood by voters that the award is meant to honor a single season in its totality, based on a player’s performance from Week 1 through Week 17, and not a shorter or larger body of work. Ballots are not accepted early, and playoff performance doesn’t factor into the equation.

The statistics for the front-runners through 15 games:

Rodgers

353/502 (70.3%), 4,059 passing yards, 44 TDs, 5 INTs, 119.4 passer rating; 145 rushing yards, 3 TDs.

He leads the league in touchdown passes and passer rating, ranks second in completion percentage and fifth in passing yards. The Packers (12-3) can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a victory at Chicago.

Mahomes

390/588 (66.3%), 4,740 passing yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs, 108.2 passer rating; 308 rushing yards, 2 TDs.

He leads the league in passing yards but trails Rodgers in most every other major category. The Chiefs (14-1) have secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will rest Mahomes for the regular season finale against the Chargers.

Allen

378/547 (69.1%), 4,320 passing yards, 34 TDs, 9 INTs, 106.4 passer rating; 418 rushing yards, 8 TDs.

He set single-season franchise records for completions, total yards and touchdowns while leading the Bills (12-3) to their first division title since 1995. He's second in the league in total touchdowns, trailing Rodgers 47-43; third in the league in passing yards, tied for third in completions, fifth in passing touchdowns and fifth in passer rating. He also has nearly double Rodgers’ interception total and might not play much, if at all, in the finale against the Dolphins.

Henry

344 carries, 1,777 rushing yards, 15 TDs, 1 fumble; 19 catches, 114 yards.

He leads the league in carries and rushing yards and will win a second consecutive rushing title, a feat last accomplished by Hall of Famer LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006 and ’07. He needs 223 yards to become the eighth player to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a season. The Titans (10-5) need either a win at Houston or the Colts to lose at home to the Jaguars to win the AFC South.

There’s a case for each candidate.

We asked voters to share their thoughts, which have been lightly edited for clarity and brevity:

Bill Polian, Hall of Fame GM, SiriusXM NFL Radio

I don’t know how other people are thinking, and I don’t put a lot of stock in these sorta ‘curbstone polls’ that pop up every now and then, because like most voters, nobody’s ever polled me.

You’re the first person that’s asked where I’m leaning. And I wouldn’t say anyway.

But having said that, I think that it’s clearly a four-horse race at this point in time. It’s Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh and the running back in Tennessee. At least in my mind, it’s one of those four.

And I think Josh stacks up very favorably.

It’s a very tough call, because if you use the barometer – which by the way, no one has said to me as a voter that this is the barometer you have to use, but I always apply it: ‘Where would the team be without this player?’ Every one of those guys fit the bill.

I haven’t made my choice yet.

We still have time, so I’m going to use every minute I have.

Peter King, NBC Sports

Absolutely, unequivocally, Josh Allen is in the discussion because right now Buffalo might be the best team in football.

But as we head into Week 17, I am leaning toward Aaron Rodgers.

He’s got them in position to win homefield in the NFC; he’s obviously going to just walk into the Hall of Fame one day; and this has been one of his best two or three seasons. Plus-39 touchdowns to interception ratio (44:5).

A quarterback rating (119.4) that could set the all-time NFL record (122.5, set by Rodgers in 2011).

No matter what fanbase you’re from, it’s hard to say that’s not deserving of the MVP. Or at the very least, man, you might pick somebody else, but it’s hard to have had a better season – period – than Aaron Rodgers has had.

At the start of this month, Josh Allen was not on my radar as far as who I thought was going to be MVP.

Derrick Henry was on my radar. Tom Brady was on my radar. Russell Wilson was on my radar.

But Josh Allen had that little October slide where he went a couple of games without throwing a touchdown pass, and they lost a couple of games in there to Tennessee and Kansas City.

I think it’s important to play great in big games, and to play great down the stretch of the season. But I do value 16 games, and I value what happened in Week 5 or 6 nearly as much as I value what happened in Week 15 or 16.

Charean Williams, ProFootballTalk.com

I never make up my mind until every game is played, because it’s not over until it’s over.

Earlier this season, it appeared Russell Wilson was going to run away with the award. Now, he’s not even in the conversation. Then, it was Patrick Mahomes who was the favorite. Now, it’s Aaron Rodgers who has the best odds in Vegas.

But Josh Allen certainly has put himself in the running. He has 300 more passing yards than Rodgers and 273 more rushing yards and five more rushing touchdowns.

The Packers and Bills have the same record.

You could make a case for either player, and neither is wrong.

I think the same goes for offensive player of the year.

Stefon Diggs, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry and Davante Adams all have cases for it. Whoever gets it is deserving, but so are several other players who don’t win it.

The best case for Josh Allen, in my opinion, is to consider where the Bills have come from to get here. The Packers were 13-3 last season. The Bills last won the division in 1995, and they haven’t won 12 regular-season games since 1993.

Paul Domowitch, Philadelphia Daily News/Inquirer

I hadn’t made up my mind yet, but the more I looked at Allen, right now I’d honestly say I’m probably leaning toward him as the MVP.

Player of the Year, Aaron Rodgers wins hands down. His numbers are just that overwhelming.

But MVP is not Player of the Year.

You’re talking about who’s most valuable to your team and Rodgers has far more talent around him. He’s got probably one of the league’s best offensive lines. He’s got Devonte Adams. And I look at Mahomes as the other guy I was considering, and he’s got Travis Kelce.

I realize that Josh has Stefon Diggs, but this is going to be his first Pro Bowl. He’s not Devonte Adams. Cole Beasley’s having the best year of his career with Josh. And Josh doesn’t have the offensive line either of them has. He also doesn’t have the defense a team like Kansas City has, where they’re sixth in points allowed this year.

And maybe because of what I’ve seen from (Eagles rookie quarterback) Jalen Hurts, the legs are a bigger factor than maybe they would have been in my consideration earlier. This is a guy that’s got 38 rushing first downs, which is only two fewer than Devin Singletary, and eight rushing touchdowns.

Whether people feel as strongly as me about his value to the team compared to Rodgers and Mahomes, I don’t know. I can’t speak to that. I feel fairly certain he’s going to get a lot of votes. This could be one of the closer races in recent memory, so it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. But I think he’ll be right there in the thick of it.

James Lofton, Hall of Fame receiver, CBS Sports

I’m going to vote for Aaron Rodgers.

I think he’s doing more with less than the other quarterbacks, and he’s had a phenomenal year, too.

They did not give him a second receiver to really throw the ball to, and to elevate Robert Tongan, the great tight end in Green Bay, you of course know of his background, right? (He was undrafted out of Indiana State in 2017, initially signed with the Lions and ended his rookie season on the Packers practice squad.)

Not to diminish what Josh Allen has done, but in a way it’s almost a cumulative effort to win the MVP award. Early in the season, everybody thought Russell Wilson was the guy because he had had a number of good seasons and he was having another good season, and then he kind of faltered for a little while.

Nobody expected the big jump that Josh Allen had in terms of completion percentage.

The addition of Stefon Diggs, who has played probably better than any receiver in the league, has really helped him out. But it’s one hand washing the other with those two.

There are people who look at metrics and analytics and there are people who do the eyeball test, and there are people who sample a little bit of both. When you watch Rodgers and Mahomes play, you know that they are the best guys on the field, obviously.

Allen could belong in the conversation, but does he get votes? Those are two different things.

Nate Davis, USA Today

I wouldn’t be surprised if some people vote for him, but it’s not the ‘most improved player.’

It’s the most valuable player.

The first couple of times I really got to see him play this year were the prime-time games against the Chiefs and the Titans and he wasn’t particularly good in those games. In fact, I don’t think he was particularly good in October. The consistency factor matters.

And the perception issue.

We all know who Aaron Rodgers is. When you see Aaron Rodgers exceeding his own bar, from what you’ve seen over the years, it’s really impressive.

And I don’t think that’s a knock against Josh.

I just don’t think he’s had the kind of year that Lamar Jackson had last year, where it makes you sit up and go, ‘Wow. I’ve never seen this kind of thing.’ And it really sets him apart in a way where you think he is the guy over anyone else.

I’m totally impressed with the way Josh has played this year. He’s probably working his way into the conversation that we like to have: If you were starting an NFL team and you had to start with one guy, who would it be?

I think most people would probably take Mahomes based on what he’s done his first couple of years.

But if this is who Josh Allen is going to be, the Bills are in great shape for the next several years. He’s going to be in that category of guys you look at as a potential MVP candidate in any given season.

Jarrett Bell, USA Today

Russell Wilson has never received one single MVP vote because of the way that the thing is set up where you vote for one guy and you just get one vote. You don’t get a second-place or third-place vote. That feels a lot like how Josh Allen might wind up here.

I’m not saying he won’t get any votes. Let me be clear about that.

He’s had a great season, no doubt.

But I think he’s going to have to stand in line behind Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Mahomes.

I’m sure there’s going to be people in Buffalo saying, ‘He’s our guy.’ And they should support him.

But if you’re calling me from Green Bay, you might say, ‘How could you think about anybody else?’ If you’re calling me from Kansas City, it’s kind of like, ‘Look at the record.’

They’ve been better than Josh Allen. And that’s nothing for him to be ashamed about.

He’s an up-and-coming, rising star. He’s been so impressive to watch as he’s taken his steps from year to year.

We’ll probably be having this conversation in the future.