It doesn’t take long to determine which college football teams are better than expected. On the flip side, it also doesn’t take long to find out which teams are worse than expected.
Texas was viewed as a national championship contender before it upset then-No. 1 Ohio State at home in Week 2, but the Longhorns actually proved it after completing the 20-point comeback. Its archrival Oklahoma, meanwhile, did the opposite, as its offense under Brent Venables continued to flounder in the Sooners’ 17-10 road loss to Michigan.
It’s early in the season, and turnarounds are bound to happen. Just look at Oklahoma State, which broke the nation’s longest-losing streak (12) with a 39-31 win over then-No. 6 Oregon only a week after being dominated by in-state rival Tulsa, a non-Power Four school with many local recruits the Cowboys passed over as high schoolers.
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College football is wild and taking stock in certain teams is bound to backfire eventually. Still, here’s a look at the teams trending up and trending down heading into Week 3 of the college football season.
Oklahoma State's Ethan Wesloski celebrates next to Oregon's Evan Stewart during Saturday’s game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Oregon Ducks at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla.
Stock up
Texas
Texas leapfrogged from No. 3 to No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll thanks to a gutsy fourth-quarter performance. The Longhorns were not good through the first three quarters against the Buckeyes, who took a 23-3 lead into the fourth quarter on the road and controlled the game from the start until Texas struck back.
Heisman Trophy hopeful Arch Manning led Texas to three consecutive scoring drives to win 24-23. Manning wasn’t at his best against Ohio State, but he turned it up when the game was on the line, converting two massive fourth-down tries on the Longhorns’ first two touchdown drives of the final quarter.
Coach Steve Sarkisian finally overcame Ohio State, which has wins over Texas each of the past two seasons. Though the Longhorns are now the hunted, they’ll need to keep playing like they have something to prove.
USC
Lincoln Riley did it again, developing another top-tier quarterback in Jayden Maiava. The third-year starter — one year at UNLV and two at USC — leads the country in passing yards (896) and passing touchdowns (10), and ranks fifth nationally in QBR (91.0).
Sure, the Trojans played more games than most due to playing San Jose State in Week 0, but Maiava was prolific and efficient for a team that’s hoping to leap into the upper echelon of Big Ten teams this season.
USC still has some work to do defensively after allowing 30 points to Louisiana in Week 3, but Riley has one of his most talented defensive units since leaving Oklahoma for Los Angeles, and it doesn’t hurt having Gary Patterson calling the defense.
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is better than it was last year, though the jury is still out on how much better.
A starting point is with quarterback Kamario Taylor, who’s emerging as one of the top young talents in college football. The former four-star recruit stands 6-4, 230 pounds, and threw for 581 yards with seven touchdowns while rushing for 145 yards and a score in two games this season.
The Bulldogs decimated Minnesota 38-13 on the road in Week 2, with Taylor scoring three touchdowns and rushing for 86 yards in the win. Defenses are going to have their hands full with the budding superstar come SEC play.
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is the definition of stock up after it mostly dominated then-No. 6 Oregon at home in Week 2. The Cowboys outgained the Ducks 554-281 in the win, and probably should have won by more if it weren’t for Drew Mestemaker throwing a pick-six as well as another interception that led to a short Oregon touchdown run.
First-year coach Eric Morris brought over 90 new players to Stillwater, most of them coming from North Texas, which was a win away from the College Football Playoff last year. His typical high-scoring offense was stymied in Week 1 in a disappointing loss to Tulsa, but it turned around in a big way against the previously expected national title contenders.
Against the Ducks, Oklahoma State looked like a team that could compete for a Big 12 title this season.
Michigan Wolverines linebacker Troy Bowles and cornerback Zeke Berry tackle Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer during a game Saturday at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
Stock down
Oregon
While Oklahoma State is up, Oregon is definitely down.
The Ducks took a major hit to their CFP hopes with a loss to the Cowboys, who won its first game over an FBS opponent in more than two years in Week 2. Projected first-round pick quarterback Dante Moore was virtually shut down by a defense full of transfers, completing less than 50% of his passes against OSU.
It’s only one loss and Oregon has one of the most talented rosters on paper, but the loss gives the Ducks little room for error going forward.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma bounced back last year with a 10-2 season to reach the CFP for the first time since 2019. As a result, the Sooners entered 2026 with plenty of hype as John Mateer returned at quarterback while adding an influx of offensive transfers around him.
Unfortunately for Brent Venables and Co., the changes offensively weren’t enough against Michigan. Mateer mightily struggled against the Wolverines, throwing a late interception in the fourth quarter that led to Michigan's game-winning touchdown in the 17-10 loss.
Oklahoma’s season could fall off the rails, with two of its next three games against No. 2 Georgia on the road and No. 1 Texas in Dallas. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and Mateer will need to figure something out quickly if they want their season to stay in their control.
Washington
Washington was a sneaky pick to make some noise in the Big Ten this season, but the Huskies barely made it through the first two weeks of the season against lesser opponents.
Washington defeated Washington State 24-10 and was nearly upset by Utah State in Week 2, winning 16-14 despite winning the turnover battle 3-0 and being a 28.5-point favorite. Returning quarterback Demond Williams, who returned to the Huskies after attempting to enter the transfer portal this offseason, only has two touchdowns in two games.
Explosive plays were few and far between for third-year coach Jedd Fisch, who’s assuredly trying to fix the Huskies’ offensive woes before a brutal conference schedule.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is definitely missing No. 2 overall pick David Bailey and superstar linebacker Jacob Rodriguez so far this season. The Red Raiders’ defense hasn’t quite been the dominant unit it was last season, and is coming off a 35-24 win against Oregon State in which Beavers quarterback Braden Atkinson threw for 417 yards.
Quarterback Will Hammond — who took over the starting job after the Brendan Sorsby saga — has been solid yet unspectacular, with two passing touchdowns to an interception through two games. Hammond also is coming off a serious knee injury he suffered last season that also affected his dual-threat ability.
Texas Tech should still be one of the best teams in the Big 12, but its ceiling might be lower than it was last season.
