COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. – Three players had their plaques added to the Baseball Hall of Fame's gallery as Cooperstown and the rest of the baseball world celebrated the induction for the 90th anniversary of the Baseball Writers Association of America's first Hall vote in 1936.
While Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner were not inducted until the museum's June 12, 1939, opening, the Hall, the writers association and Major League Baseball are now a decade away from electing a class for the 100th anniversary of their inaugural 1936 election. The first five were joined for festivities by the classes of 1937, 1938 and 1939. Eleven of the 26 inductees were living and attended the event.
Members of the Hall's Class of 2036 will need to have been inactive for five years to be on the writers' ballot, meaning that election's headliners are currently playing and likely at a high level, raising the question: who might they be?
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(Note: All statistics through the completion of games on July 26.)
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, pictured during during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Florida, remains under contract through the 2031 season.
One candidate stands out for 2036 induction
Jayson Stark, a Hall of Fame honoree himself as recipient of the BBWAA's JG Taylor Spink Award in 2019 prior to its name change, recently updated his list of the nine active player he considers to be certain future inductees.
One of those nine stands out. Mike Trout is under contract with the Los Angeles Angels through 2030 and would turn 40 during the following season. While injuries have slowed his career, the three-time American League Most Valuable Player and 2012 Rookie of the Year has hit 422 home runs, driven home 1,057 runs and scored 1,255, all while batting .291/.406/.565 over a big league career now in its 16th season. Trout leads active players in bWAR at 90.6, the 46th highest career total all-time, and he is also the active leader with 55 triples.
Trout is also one of 11 active players with contracts expiring after the 2030 season. He is the oldest player in that group, but Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber will turn 38 during spring training for the 2031 season.
Schwarber currently leads the National League in home runs for what would be the third time in five years, having passed 350 for his career earlier this season. He currently has the same career batting average – .232 – as Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Lemon, and he trails former catcher Ray Schalk's .253, the lowest for an inducted position player. Outfielder Andruw Jones is next on the list at .254.
Schwarber, however, has embraced the modern three true outcomes hitting approach and his .347 career on base percentage slots in between Yogi Berra (.348) and Ryne Sandberg (.344). Schwarber has averaged 49 home runs per 162 games during his time with the Phillies, putting him on a pace that could put him comfortably over 500 by the end of the 2030 season. On the other hand, with the popularity of using WAR to assess player performance, Schwarber currently sits at 22.1, well below the 67 identified by baseball-reference.com as the average score for Hall of Fame position players.
Chicago Cub Alex Bregman and Padre Jake Cronenworth will both be 37 after the 2030 season while Giants third baseman Matt Chapman will turn 38 in April of 2031 after current Texas Ranger Brandon Nimmo turns 38 in spring training.
Bregman's career WAR is 45.3, almost double Schwarber's total, and he helped the Houston Astros win two World Series, and Chapman is close behind at 44.5. Nimmo's career WAR is 28.0, and Cronenworth got a later start on his big league career with 15.2 WAR in his seventh season; players must play 10 seasons to qualify for Hall of Fame consideration.
Current Arizona Diamondback Corbin Burnes, Pittsburgh Pirate Bryan Reynolds and first-year Baltimore Oriole Pete Alonso, each in his eighth season, will be 36 when their contracts expire after 2030 and could continue playing. Seattle Mariners Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor are younger and will both be 34 at that time.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber bats during the third inning for the All-Star Game earlier this month at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. He is leading the National League in home runs for the third time in five years and passed 350 for his career earlier this season.
Unlikely to be on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
Quick research shows 40 players under contract past the 2030 season or holding player options on their contracts into the 2030s, meaning New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, for example, would have to retire with one year and $40 million remaining on his contract to make the cutoff, a scenario that seems unlikely. Teammate Max Fried is under contract through 2032, Los Angeles Dodger Shohei Ohtani through 2033, San Diego Padre Fernando Tatis Jr. through 2034 and teammate Jackson Merrill through 2035, and Juan Soto is signed with the New York Mets through 2039.
Three of the players on Stark's list – Judge, Ohtani and Dodger Mookie Betts, who recently told John Cena on “What Drives You” that he plans to play out his contract and retire in 2032 – are among those contracted to play past 2030.
43-year-old Justin Verlander, currently on the 60-day injured list following a single start in March, has announced he will retire at the end of the current season with the Detroit Tigers, and former teammate Max Scherzer, soon to be 42, has a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
That leaves Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, Astros second baseman Jose Altuve and Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado. Freeman and Arenado are under contract through next season, and Altuve through 2029. Should they continue playing, Arenado, the youngest of the trio, would turn 39 in April of 2030, the same month Altuve would turn 40, and Freeman would be playing the 2030 season at 41 years of age.
Designated hitter Juan Soto reacts after fouling a ball off of his foot in the New York Mets' May 13 game against the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field. The 27-year-old has a contract running through the 2039 season, the longest active deal in Major League Baseball.
Who is on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot until then?
The prospective ballot first-timers are set for the next few elections, including 2032 with Verlander's retirement announcement making him the first prospective name for that vote.
Buster Posey, the catcher on three San Francisco World Series championship teams and currently the Giants' president of baseball operations, is eligible for election in 2027, as is pitcher Jon Lester, who helped the Cubs and Boston Red Sox win World Series.
Longtime St. Louis Cardinals teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols join the ballot in 2028.
Miguel Cabrera, who won baseball's first triple crown in 45 years in 2012, becomes eligible in 2029, along with 200-win pitchers Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright, and Cincinnati Reds star Joey Votto.
Clayton Kershaw retired following the Dodgers' second consecutive World Series win last fall and will appear on the 2031 ballot.
This article originally appeared on Times Telegram: Who might headline writers' 100th anniversary Hall of Fame ballot?
