CD2 Watch: McSally in virtual dead heat with Barber, new poll shows

The poll from Virginia-based pollster OnMessage gives a three percent lead to McSally over her Democratic rival, Rep. Ron Barber. 

The pollsters reported 45 percent of respondents said in mid-April they would vote for McSally if the election was held today, while 42 percent backed Barber and 13 percent were undecided.

The margin of error for the poll, which talked to 400 likely voters, was 4.9 percent. 

McSally spokeswoman Kristen Douglas touted the poll as evidence of growing dissatisfaction with her Democratic rival.

"The numbers speak for themselves: The more southern Arizonans know Ron Barber, the less they want him to represent them," said Kristen Douglas.

Barber spokesperson Ashley Nash-Hahn dismissed the poll from noted GOP pollster Wes Anderson.

"Southern Arizonans are going to support Ron Barber in November because we know that he is on our side," Nash-Hahn said.

Northern Arizona University political science professor and pollster Fred Solop said with the election more than six months away, the most important figure is 13 percent who are still undecided in CD2.

He said the bottom line is that the Congressional seat is still up for grabs.

A staffer with OnMessage suggests in the polling memo that the Affordable Care Act is clearly hurting Barber.

"This downward spiral is largely driven by eroding opinions of President Obama and Obamacare, both of which are in the red by double digits," the memo states. "As a result, Republicans are reaping the benefits on both the generic ballot and the motive ballot. In fact, this is the first time our polling has shown a Republican leading on the generic ballot for Congress."

The McSally campaign did not immediately respond to further questions about the poll or a request to release the entire poll to the public.