Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz: 'We're not out of this pandemic'

The seven-day positivity rate for the Western New York region – the percentage of Covid-19 tests coming back positive – has creeped up to over 2%.

Hospitalizations in Western New York hospitals, which were at an all time low of 10 just a few weeks ago, are up to 38 patients.

The numbers are still much lower than they were in winter and the spread is nowhere near what large swaths of the nation's Southeast and Midwest are currently experiencing.

There is no mistaking it, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said Tuesday in an update to the public: "We're not out of this pandemic."

Erie County's rising caseload comes as the nation grapples with a new wave of Covid-19 cases driven by the more infectious Delta variant.

On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced new guidance about masks. It is now recommending all people, even fully vaccinated people, wear masks indoors in areas where there's substantial or high levels of transmission.

That shouldn't affect any guidelines for Western New York.

Using the criteria for what the CDC considers high or substantive Covid-19 transmission areas, the guidance would apply, for now, to only one county in upstate New York – Greene County in the northern Catskills – as well as all of New York City and Long Island. 

But with numbers rising over the last few weeks, Erie County has moved back into what the CDC considers "moderate transmission level." The county had been at "low transmission" since about mid-June. Poloncarz said if the numbers continue to rise – the county is at 32.4 cases per 100,000 persons – the county may see itself in the "substantial transmission" level. 

What does that mean for Erie County residents? Will we have to wear masks inside again?

Poloncarz said that the county would follow CDC guidelines. 

If the county hits "substantial transmission" status, Erie County employees may be required to wear masks indoors at work at all times, regardless of vaccination status, Poloncarz said. Right now, county employees can go mask-free if they show proof of being fully vaccinated. They're given a special sticker to put on their ID cards to identify themselves as fully vaccinated.

Would it impact fans at Buffalo Bills games at Highmark Stadium?

"The answer, of course, is yes if it continues to grow," Poloncarz said in response to a reporter's question.

He pointed out that there are some parts of the stadium that are indoors, including club seats.

"But if the numbers continue to grow and based on CDC and Health Department recommendations, we may require masks for everyone in the stadium," he said.

Dr. Thomas A. Russo, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases in the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, said it's not all bad news.

"We're doing pretty well in Western New York," he said. The vaccination rate is about on par with the rest of the state and far above other parts of the United States. Also, while hospitalizations are going up, the numbers are still pretty low.

Yet, they are creeping up – and the Delta variant is to blame, he said.

"It's crashed our party here in Western New York," Russo said.

The Delta variant is dramatically more infectious, he added.

"There's a much higher viral load," he said.

A recent study found that the Delta variant may shed "1,000-fold more virus" than other variants of Covid-19.

"With a lot more virus, even younger or healthier people could be potentially overwhelmed," Russo said. 

Russo has a theory that this summer's weather is playing a role, too.

"It's been hot and humid or rainy," he said.

And that means more people are inside to cool off in air conditioning or to seek shelter from the rain. Covid-19 is much more likely to spread indoors where air circulation is limited, he added.

Then there are the human behavior factors.

"We're playing a huge amount of social catch up," Russo said. "People are completely letting their guard down now."

People are getting together for meals and parties. Sports events, festivals and concerts have started back up. While outdoor events are considered safer for Covid-19, it may turn out that Delta is capable of spreading outdoors, too, Russo speculated.

Then there are the people who are refusing to get vaccinated, he added.

"The vaccine was our ticket out and not everyone bought their ticket. It's coming back to haunt them," he said.

Russo is heartened by news that vaccination numbers nationwide are going up, but said that  it takes five to six weeks for vaccines to be fully effective. 

CDC: Masks in schools 

In a conference call with reporters, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC director, said her agency is also urging all schools in the nation to require masks for anyone entering school buildings when classes resume this summer and fall.

While she said the CDC mask guidance is considered a temporary fix and that higher vaccination rates are needed to slow the Delta variant of Covid-19, Walensky added that there is increasing evidence to suggest that vaccinated people can still get the Delta strain and spread the virus to others.

Part of the reason for the new mask guidance is to protect people who can’t get vaccinated, including children and immune-compromised individuals, she said, but there is also growing concern that strains coming out of the Delta variant "could potentially evade our vaccine" down the road.

The CDC director said she understands that people might get frustrated with the new mask guidance and that there are ongoing mental health and physical health issues with Covid-19 and that health systems in some areas of the country are being “overrun” by a virus that is preventable.

"This is not a decision that was taken lightly," she said Tuesday.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo released a statement Tuesday afternoon, saying his office was "reviewing the CDC's new recommendations closely in consultation with federal and state health experts."

Erie County health officials urged anyone who is experiencing Covid-19 symptoms such as fever, shortness of breath, coughing and loss of smell or taste to get tested, even if they have been fully vaccinated. Erie County offers free Covid-19 testing to Erie County residents. Appointments are required and can be made by calling 716-858-2929. The county offers both PCR testing – which takes one to three business days to get results – and a rapid test.

While the county's mass vaccination sites have been closed, mobile clinics are being offered. Poloncarz pointed out that of the 190 people who have died in Erie County since April 1, 182 were not fully vaccinated.

"The numbers are clear," he said. "Please get vaccinated."

Vaccination clinics

Wednesday, July 28 – SUNY Erie South building from noon to 7 p.m.

Thursday, July 29 – SUNY Erie South building from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Friday, July 30 – SUNY Erie South building from noon to 7 p.m.

Also at Hamburg High School from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.

Aug. 4 – East Aurora Boys & Girls Club

Also Westside Community Services

Aug. 6 – Johnny B. Wiley Sports Pavilion

To sign up for a clinic go to erie.gov/vax or call 716-858-2929.