For the first time in months, no Covid-19 outbreaks in Erie County nursing homes

For the first time since the county Health Department started disclosing information on outbreaks of the virus in the facilities 11 weeks ago, there were none last week.

The Erie County Legislature, when it ordered health officials to provide weekly updates back in November, said it wanted to know of any situation where 5% or more of a nursing home's residents tested positive for the coronavirus in a single week.

"For the week ending January 23, 2021, no nursing homes in Erie County had a percent positive rate of more than 5% based on the data available to our department," Health Commissioner Dr. Gale R. Burstein wrote to the Legislature Tuesday.

The news isn't all good, however. Thirty-five people have died of Covid-19 in Erie County nursing homes in the last two weeks, according to the state Health Department.

But even that statistic is reason for optimism, County Executive Mark C. Poloncarz said Wednesday.

“Two deaths a day is not that extreme. There have been times in which I’ve seen 10 or greater (per day) in nursing homes. It has dropped, there’s no doubt about it," Poloncarz said.

But Burstein's latest report was the climax of what appears to be a steadily improving picture in the county's nursing homes, mirroring a recent improvement in the community at large.

"Covid cases within nursing homes may follow Covid rates in the community, and we have seen a slow but steady downward trend in our new daily case totals and positivity rates in the last few weeks," Health Department spokeswoman Kara Kane said Wednesday.

The seven-day rolling average of positive test results in the county, which had topped 8% a few weeks ago, now is about 5% – "the lowest it's been in quite some time," Poloncarz said.

“It’s also possible that it is because of the vaccines," Poloncarz said. "I am aware that all of the nursing homes in Erie County have received their first dose of vaccine and some have actually completed their second dose."

Nursing home residents in Western New York began getting vaccinated on Dec. 21. 

Wednesday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said in a tweet that 72% of nursing home residents statewide have received a dose of the vaccine. In the five-county Western New York region, the figure is 76%.

In the Elderwood chain of nursing homes, "no facility had less than 80% participation among residents and in some cases more than 95% participation," said Chuck Hayes, spokesman for the Elderwood group, which operates six nursing homes in Erie County and two in Niagara County.

"It’s difficult to say definitively if the vaccine has helped because of the time needed to build immunity, and the fact that in many cases, residents have received only the first dose," Hayes said.

"What we do know is that we have been able to effectively cohort Covid-19 positive residents at Elderwood at Amherst, which was designated as a Covid-only care center in late December, and this may have contributed to the lower number of cases," Hayes said.

Elderwood at Amherst had 10 residents die from Covid-19 in the past two weeks, the largest fatality number among the Erie County nursing homes, according to State Department of Health data. 

State regulations do not permit a decrease in the number or frequency of Covid-19 tests in nursing homes.

"We are testing residents as frequently as prior to vaccination, as governed by the Department of Health," said Dawn Harsch, spokeswoman for the McGuire Group of five local nursing homes.

Another factor in the improvement, according to Poloncarz, may be the state's restrictions on visits to nursing homes. Those won't change despite Cuomo's announcement Wednesday that orange and yellow zones in the region are being eliminated.

"The rules with regard to visitation in nursing homes still apply and should apply," Poloncarz said. "I believe that’s one of the reasons we’ve been able to drop the number of new cases and deaths, is because there are still strict rules in place to protect nursing home residents.”

“I am optimistic," Poloncarz said. "I think it is evidence that not only have we been able to reduce the spread in our region, but with the vaccines having been put into the arms of nursing home residents, that we are going to see a drop in not only the number of cases but hospitalizations and deaths of individuals who reside in a nursing home. We have seen that recently, too."

The worst of Burstein's weekly reports on nursing home Covid-19 test results came during Thanksgiving week, when nine nursing homes had Covid-19 among more than 5% of their residents.

That figure dropped to six nursing homes in the first week of December. But the number of homes with more than 5% positives rose to seven in each of the ensuing two weeks.

Since then, the proportion has been slowly falling.

During Christmas week, five nursing homes were dealing with outbreaks of 5% or more. That figure dropped to four in the first two January reports, and to three for the week ending Jan. 16.

Now, it's zero.

Burstein's reports do not give the testing rate for every nursing home, but they reveal which nursing homes are having an outbreak of the virus.

The County Legislature directed Burstein to provide the weekly reports after The Buffalo News disclosed an outbreak at Comprehensive Rehabilitation and Nursing Center in Williamsville, which was investigated by a federal "strike force" in October.

Burstein had refused to talk about the case, citing privacy regulations.

The improved data are not a sign that happy days are back, Poloncarz said.

“We’re still not out of the woods yet," he said. "The vast majority of people in Erie County have not been vaccinated, nor have they contracted Covid-19, so they’re still at risk of contracting it. Just because we’re seeing this progress doesn’t mean that everything’s normal."