When it comes to hospital emergency rooms, the last word anyone wants to hear is "quiet."
It's a superstition, to be sure. But legend has it that as soon as someone says it's quiet in the ER, all heck breaks loose.
Well, we hate to say it, but right now, Southern Arizona's flu season is quiet — very quiet — with only four confirmed cases reported so far in Pima County and a single case in Cochise County.
As a result, the city's ERs, though busy, are not yet overrun and overwhelmed, but functioning with average wait times of two hours or less.
Now, a word of warning here. That is almost exactly where we were this time last year. And one week later — the week before Christmas — all heck broke loose with the outbreak of one of our worst flu seasons in years slamming the city throughout the holidays.
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Very quickly, the city's ERs were jammed with fever and flu, with patients stacked up waiting for eight hours and longer well into January.
In a sign of possible things to come, today is expected to be our last balmy day in the sunny 70s for a while, with the first winter storm due Sunday, dropping high temperatures into the 50s and threatening rain in the valley and snow in the mountains.
"Flu is late this year. The numbers are still quite low throughout Arizona," said Will Humble, assistant deputy director of the state Department of Health Services.
"And if the mild flu season in the Southern Hemisphere — which is already over — is any indication, we may have a light year in the Northern Hemisphere.
"But the fact is, we don't know. People should get their flu shots now, while vaccine is plentiful and lines are short. That may not last."
Tucson's flu season officially started three weeks ago, when the first three cases were reported. A fourth case was confirmed this week. Statewide, only 10 cases have been recorded.
Although that gives us only a glimpse of the true flu picture, because most cases are not confirmed and reported, it does signal a very mild season ... so far.
Officially, flu in Arizona is described right now as "sporadic" by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meaning we're a step above none.
By the end of last December, the state spiked to "widespread" flu, the highest level of outbreak, with confirmed cases nearing 1,000.
As a result, patient wait times at the city's two busiest ERs are somewhat acceptable, at least as of Friday — about two hours at University Medical Center and 70 minutes at Tucson Medical Center.
"It's busy, but not as busy as last year," said Julia Strange, spokeswoman for TMC, speaking of that hospital's ER, the largest in the city.
"We are seeing patients with flulike symptoms come in, but not a lot of true flu at this point. Not yet."
By the end of last December, TMC had treated some 8,500 emergency patients. This year, the ER is on track to see about 8,000, she said.
At UMC, they actually used the "Q" word to describe the situation.
"The emergency department has been very quiet this week — we're not seeing a lot of activity," UMC spokeswoman Katie Riley said. "No flu yet. We think everybody's shopping."
Nationwide, flu activity remains low overall, the CDC reports. Only one state, Florida, is reporting widespread flu, while three nearby states — Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina — are reporting the next highest level, with regional outbreaks.
Today:
Albertsons, North Oracle Road and First Avenue, Oro Valley, 10 a.m.-3 p.m.
Albertsons, East Broadway and Harrison Road, 10 a.m.-3 p.m.
Fry's, 2001 E. Irvington Road, 10 a.m.-3 p.m.
Tuesday:
St. Demetrios Greek Orthodox Church, 1145 E. Fort Lowell Road, 8 a.m.-4 p.m.
Our Lady of the Valley, 505 N. La Cañada Drive, Green Valley, 11 a.m.-3 p.m.
Thursday:
St. Demetrios Greek Orthodox Church, 1145 E. Fort Lowell Road, 8 a.m.-4 p.m.
Flu cases in Arizona, as of this week:
Pima County 4
Maricopa County 4
Cochise County 1
Coconino County 1
Source: Arizona Department of Health Services
