Based on math alone, Erie County's yellow zone will soon be changing color.
A Buffalo News analysis of state data projects that, even if the county's yellow zone somehow had a coronavirus positive rate of 0% the next two days, it would still reach the state's primary statistical threshold to move to the red zone: 10 days with a seven-day rolling average positive rate above 4%.
A red zone designation would bring shutdowns similar to what the state imposed in the spring.
Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said Monday that he expected to hear from the state and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo by Tuesday "in regards to whether or not it will move into orange or red, or whether there'll be an expansion of the yellow microcluster zone." On Tuesday, Poloncarz said an announcement will be made Wednesday.
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The Cuomo administration, despite repeated attempts, on Tuesday would not discuss the specifics about rising Covid caseloads in Erie County and what they mean for the county to be designated into more strict hot spot zones that include reclosing of some segments of the economy and society.
On Wednesday, the state announced that Erie County yellow zone's positive rate for Monday's testing was 8.05%, which is the fourth day in the last week that the rate exceeded 8%. The yellow zone's seven-day average rate increased from 7.26% to 7.33%.
Due to rising coronavirus rates in recent weeks, the state announced Nov. 9 that much of Erie County was deemed a yellow zone, which mandated restrictions on gatherings and businesses. The yellow zone comprises all but the easternmost and southernmost towns of Erie County.
The state's criteria for determining a yellow zone includes a seven-day rolling average positive rate above 2.5% for 10 days.
An area with a positive rate average above 3.0% for 10 days would be designated as an orange zone, which would bring additional restrictions. An average rate above 4.0% for 10 days would be a red zone.
The World Health Organization recommends a positive test rate of 5% or under.
Erie County's yellow zone positive rates
Daily positive rate (seven-day rolling average)
Nov. 9 – 7.47% (6.22%)
Nov. 10 – 8.12% (6.55%)
Nov. 11 – 8.16% (6.91%)
Nov. 12 – 6.00% (6.63%)
Nov. 13 – 8.17% (7.45%)
Nov. 14 – 6.62% (7.30%)
Nov. 15 – 6.36% (7.26%)
Nov. 16 – 8.05% (7.33%)
Even if the Erie County yellow zone cut its daily positive rate to 0% for the next two days of testing, it would meet the criteria for a red zone: 10 days above 4%.
Yellow zone positive rate projections
Nov. 17 – a 0% rate would project to a seven-day average of about 6.2%
Nov. 18 – a 0% rate would project to a seven-day average of about 5.0%
Note: The state computes the seven-day average positive rate via the total number of cases and tests over seven days, rather than an average of the rates over seven days; however, while the resulting seven-day average rates would not be exactly the same, they would be very similar.
Poloncarz said Tuesday that it is possible that the state's announcement Wednesday could include some parts of Erie County being designated as orange or red zones, or that the yellow zone could be expanded to the eastern and southern parts of the county that have not yet seen any restrictions.
Included among the state's orange zone restrictions would be:
• A reduction of gatherings to a maximum of 10, down from 25 in the yellow zone;
• Houses of worship attendance would be limited to 33%, down from 50% in the yellow zone;
• Indoor dining would be prohibited;
• Certain high-risk nonessential businesses (including gyms, fitness centers, barber shops, hair salons, personal care services) would be closed;
• Schools would go to fully remote learning (with the exception of schools which met the state's testing requirements in order to stay open).
A red zone would see all gatherings banned, including residential gatherings; nonessential businesses closed; dining limited to takeout and delivery only; and houses of worship limited to 25% capacity.
The last three weeks have marked an extremely high spike for Erie County's yellow zone.
According to the state, the Erie County yellow zone had a 5.35% positive rate for the week ending Nov. 7, a significant increase from previous weeks (1.81% for Oct. 24; 2.86% for Oct. 31).
News Albany Bureau Chief Tom Precious contributed to this story.
