Opinion: Will allegations against Mark Lamb reshape Arizona CD-5 race?

Donald Trump sometimes endorses candidates so repellent that he turns a likely Republican victory into a Democratic upset. Could it happen again in Arizona with Mark Lamb, candidate for Congress from District 5?

“It is a sprawling and tawdry tale,” wrote Jess Bidgood of The New York Times, “a former county sheriff accused, among other things, of sexting women outside his marriage and of threatening to sic state law enforcement on one of the recipients to keep her from posting about it online.”

Then the punchline: “That ex-sheriff is also the Trump-endorsed front-runner in the Republican primary for Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District.”

Mark Lamb would normally be expected to win in Arizona CD-5, a bright red district in the relentlessly conservative East Valley of eastern Maricopa County and northern Pinal County (where Lamb served as sheriff). After The Arizona Republic reported on Lamb’s sexually charged text messages and photos and quoted a longtime friend of Lamb’s who said “Lamb introduced him to a sexually charged ‘lifestyle’ that included sharing explicit photos and sexual encounters with Lamb's wife, Janel,” he seemed unlikely to even survive the primary.

That friend – Matt Hilsabeck – agreed to discuss the allegations during a legislative district meeting on July 9. He was joined by Jillian Stannard, his ex-wife. “Hilsabeck and Stannard were married in 2017,” added the Republic, “but the relationship fell apart after she said she found explicit photos and messages from Lamb and another woman on Hilsabeck's phone and computer.”

The report further alleges Lamb sent racist, sexist and homophobic text messages, and harassed several women with his sexually charged texting. “One of the women alleged that he threatened her with prosecution if she shared his sexual images and messages,” reported MSNOW, citing the Republic’s investigation.

Stannard and Hilsabeck said they were invited to address the meeting by precinct committeepersons, but were blocked by Lamb supporters.

Lamb easily won the primary. But will he win the general election?

The numbers add up in his favor. About 43% of the district’s 537,661 registered voters are Republicans. Only about 21% are Democrats. The remaining 36% — are composed of Libertarians, Green Party, No Labels and “other” (essentially, independents), according to Arizona Secretary of State voter registration data.

If Republicans and Democrats voted in accordance with their share of registered voters, the Democrat, Elizabeth Lee, would need nearly four-fifths of the other voters — the minor parties and independents. If Democrats turn out in higher numbers than Republicans and some Republicans are so repulsed by Lamb they vote for Lee, and independents break heavily for Lee, an upset is possible.

It happened before. Trump endorsed Roy Moore for a U.S. Senate seat from Alabama, “despite multiple allegations of sexual misconduct involving teenage girls,” noted The Atlantic. Moore lost to Democrat Doug Jones in a major upset.

Alabama is more Republican than Arizona’s Fifth District. Fifty-five percent of the electorate is GOP. A 2017 estimate by Gallup showed a similar percentage, yet Alabama voters chose a Democrat. Could District 5 voters do the same this year?

"People have weathered worse," said Republican political consultant Stan Barnes, according to Fox 10 News in Phoenix, citing “former President Bill Clinton and current President Trump, who both faced high-profile misconduct allegations.” His optimism is not shared.

"This story only adds to a pattern of disqualifying, disgraceful, and embarrassing behavior unbecoming of a congressman," said Daniel Keenan, his Republican primary opponent, according to Fox 10 News. Political researcher Mike Noble said the allegations against Lamb are “going to hurt him with women, it's going to hurt him with independents, self-identified moderates, those that have a high school or less education." "It could potentially be fatal for him in the general election,” added Noble, “and actually give Democrats an opening in the general election, which normally they wouldn’t.” The district is deeply socially conservative.

Elections are impacted by political affiliation, but not enslaved by it. In November, the question facing District 5 voters is not whether they vote for a Democrat or a Republican.

It’s whether they can bring themselves to dignify a scoundrel.