On the night of the June 23rd special election for the vacant 27th Congressional District, Republican Chris Jacobs posted a 42-point lead over Democrat Nate McMurray – just like he was supposed to.
The 27th, after all, remains the most Republican congressional district in all of New York. Lots of Trump/Pence signs dot the eight-county district – right next to those “Repeal the SAFE Act” placards.
But over the next few days, other votes cast by mail trickled in, chipping away at the big Jacobs lead. When they were all counted, Jacobs won by just 5 points.
So it was with renewed interest that last week’s Buffalo News coverage of President Trump’s renomination veered into the local congressional campaigns of Republicans Jacobs and Tom Reed of Corning. And after interviews with McMurray as he again challenges Jacobs, and with Tracy Mitrano of Penn Yan as she takes on Reed, it is clear that Trump emerges as fair game for the Dems.
People are also reading…
Last week, neither Democrat hesitated for a second in lambasting Trump as unfit for office.
Criticized by opponents in the June GOP primary for alleged tepid support of Trump in 2016 while representing a Democratic district in the State Senate, Jacobs sought and won presidential approval for his congressional bid. Trump often tweeted his “Complete Support” for Jacobs, and even joined him in a “tele-town hall.”
It all worked – but not enough to discourage McMurray and Mitrano from lashing out at Trump.
McMurray now says he must criticize a president who fails to disassociate himself from QAnon conspiracy theorists (who believe the president is fighting a band of satanic pedophiles) or who has not adequately confronted Covid-19.
He says he ignores the consultants who advise toning down his anti-Trump rhetoric. Indeed, he seems to relish linking Jacobs to the president.
“I talk to a lot of people who know him better than I do and they’re ashamed,” McMurray said of Jacobs’ previous “moderate” reputation.
Mitrano says her polls show Trump and Democrat Joe Biden running “neck and neck” in the 23rd. Her aggressive stand also stems from data.
Though the 23rd District has changed through reapportionment since Democrat Eric Massa won in 2008, she sees hopeful numbers. Republicans ruled by a 5 to 1 ratio then; 2.5 to 1 now.
She also paid close attention to Jacobs’ narrow special election victory in the neighboring 27th District, where she thinks even loyal Republicans expressed Trump fatigue.
Combined with contempt for his “manner, negativity and self-centered view,” Mitrano sees no reason for sparing Trump.
“People tell me he not only has failed to fulfill his promise to clean out Washington,” she said, “they can’t believe the country is moving in the direction of a president who lies with abandon.”
All of this becomes fascinating because it doesn’t make sense. Trump won the 27th District by 24 points in 2016; the 23rd by 15 points. And all the unique characteristics of a special election might have produced Jacobs’ paltry margin of victory in June.
In addition, a 2019 survey of the district by Amherst pollster Barry Zeplowitz found 81% of the 500 Republicans he questioned supported Trump.
“Anybody who is endorsed by the president gets a great big lift,” Zeplowitz said then – before a pandemic, record unemployment and civil unrest dominated everyday life in 2020.
This summer, Zeplowitz said many other factors, including the high turnout of a presidential election, weigh in favor of the Republicans.
In the aftermath of the Nov. 3 election, it will be prove fascinating (as always) to break down the numbers. If McMurray and Mitrano are right and Trump is at least a partial liability to their opponents, Biden will probably move into the White House. If Trump can’t prosper in this red turf, he faces major problems.
But for now, McMurray and Mitrano are lambasting the president in his strongest turf. Maybe they know something we don’t.
