Here’s an analysis of winners and losers at One Bills Drive after the dust settled from three days of drafting by the Buffalo Bills.
Winners
Sean McDermott’s culture. Never underestimate the priority the Bills put on getting guys whose personality fits the head coach’s team-first mantra. First-round pick Kaiir Elam has the benefitted greatly from the influence of his father, Abram, a former NFL player. Elam showed maturity beyond his 20 years in the pre-draft process. Third-round pick Terrel Bernard was a team captain for Baylor and lauded by his teammates for his leadership. He has a master’s degree. Second-round pick James Cook, the brother of Vikings star Dalvin, should know what it takes to be a pro. Fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir was a team captain at Boise State.
Said general manager Brandon Beane of Elam: “He’s a great young man. I think he’ll fit our DNA, fit our culture. He is one of the guys we brought in for a 30 visit here, and he was impressive. That really kind of sealed the fate of this guy would fit us if it worked out.”
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Leslie Frazier. The addition of Elam gives the Bills’ defensive coordinator more flexibility in coverage. Elam has the length, size and speed to play press coverage. Depending on the matchup, the Bills can use that ability against quick-throwing rhythm offenses to give Von Miller & Co. a fraction of a second more to get to the quarterback. Elam has more recovery speed in man coverage. Once Elam gets comfortable in the NFL, Frazier has the flexibility to be more aggressive in coverage than he could be with Levi Wallace or Dane Jackson in outside coverage.
Josh Allen. Cook is a running back, but in reality he’s more of an addition to the passing game than the run game. He should be an immediate contributor to the offense. He can line up as a receiver in the slot. He should help the Bills’ exploit defenses underneath a little better. Then Allen got more depth at receiver with the pick of Khalil Shakir.
Ryan Bates, Ike Boettger and Cody Ford. There was a lot of speculation the Bills could take an interior offensive lineman on Day 2. Bates’ position likely never was at risk, given the fact the Bills gave him a contract worth $4.2 million a year in March. But Boettger and Ford benefitted from the fact the Bills didn’t draft any interior offensive linemen. A couple guards who visited Buffalo – Ohio State’s Nick Petit-Frere and Memphis’ Dylan Parham – both were picked in the third round. A lot of fans have written off Ford, but he will have a fair chance to make the top nine on the Bills’ offensive line again.
Devin Singletary. It turned out the Bills did not have a first-round grade on Iowa State running back Breece Hall. He went 36th overall to the New York Jets. Yes, Cook may cut into Singletary’s snaps a little, but he’s not a full-service back like Hall or Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III.
Gabriel Davis. As it turned out, the odds that the Bills would take a receiver in the first round were slim. The run on WRs happened fast, and six went in the first 18 picks. Had someone like Arkansas’ Treylon Burks fallen, it might have been hard to pass on him. The Bills’ confidence in Davis is justified, given his massive finish to the 2021 season.
Losers
Duke Johnson and Zach Moss. The Bills covered their bases after the signing of J.D. McKissic fell through by adding Johnson, the receiving back who has had some good years with the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans. But with the drafting of Cook, Johnson’s only path to a roster spot looks like a preseason injury to one of the Bills’ top backs. Moss still should make the team as the primary backup to Singletary, but Moss’ path to being active most weeks took a hit. The Bills will want Cook active.
Matt Haack. The use of a sixth-round pick on Matt Araiza puts significant heat on Haack, who had a sub-par season in 2021. The expectation is the Bills will want Araiza to win the job because of his big upside. But Araiza is raw, with only one collegiate season as a punter. He will need to prove his consistency in competition during training camp and preseason.
“Matt had a down year, he's a better punter than what he just played last year,” Beane said. “He's got a new focus. So it's competition.”
Tyler Matakevich, Tyrell Dodson or Andre Smith. One of them will be in trouble due to the drafting of Terrel Bernard in the third round. The Bills kept six linebackers last season. With 4.59 speed in the 40-yard dash, Bernard surely will be playing special teams. That’s Smith’s sole role. If Matakevich doesn’t make the team, the Bills will save $2.5 million against the salary cap. Matakevich is 235, Dodson 237. The Bills surely need one of them for the rare occasions they use their base, 4-3 front.
Marquez Stevenson. The sixth-round pick from 2021 probably will have a tough time beating out Shakir, a fifth-round pick. Stevenson might be relegated to the practice squad again.
Potential loser
Matt Milano. The Bills’ star linebacker is only 27 years old. He’s under contract for three more seasons on the contract he signed in March 2021. He’s not going anywhere in the near future. Yet the Bills didn’t draft a linebacker – Bernard – in the third round with the idea he is a career backup. Milano has cap hits of $13 million in 2023 and 2024. Let’s say the Bills love Bernard’s development. They could part ways with Milano a year early. Could Bernard eventually take over for Tremaine Edmunds? Maybe, given the fact Brandon Beane said Bernard can play outside or inside. It seems like a stretch, given Bernard is 224 pounds. Almost surely, the decision on Edmunds is going to be made independent of Bernard. If Edmunds plays like a superstar in 2022, the Bills can keep him. If the Bills don’t want to give him a giant new contract, it’s going to be based on their evaluation of Edmunds, not who might replace him.
