The biggest second-guess in the history of the Seattle Seahawks franchise is they should have run the ball instead of passed on the goal line in the Super Bowl against New England in 2015.
The past several years, the predominant second-guess among the analytics community – and a portion of Seattle fans – is the Seahawks haven’t passed enough to take advantage of the talent of quarterback Russell Wilson.
It gained steam on social media early last year when Seattle fans started promoting the Twitter hashtag #LetRussCook.
Seattle was 27th last year in passing percentage in the first three quarters (at 54%), according to Sharp Football. On first down in the first three quarters, they ran the ball 54%, 10th most.
This year, Seattle is No. 2 in passing on first down in the first three quarters at 56%. Who is No. 1? Buffalo at 57%.
People are also reading…
One look at the matchup and the only response that makes even marginal sense is a shake of the head, writes Vic Carucci.
It’s not as though Seattle’s past approach was unsuccessful. The Seahawks were 11th in scoring in 2018 and tied for sixth last year.
But Wilson is demonstrating the upper limits of his potential this year. The Seahawks are No. 1 in scoring and No. 3 in passing.
Seattle coach Pete Carroll said this week the emergence of star receiver D.K. Metcalf is one reason Wilson has been unleashed. But Carroll wasn’t buying the early-downs analytics arguments that have been made in recent years.
“I’d like to think it’s dynamic, not a static part of our program, that we’re constantly developing,” Carroll said on a conference call with Buffalo media. “Part of that is the development of the guys Russ has to go to. Tyler Lockett’s been a great player ever since he’s been here. The way we’ve watched the emergence of D.K. Metcalf, a highly talented guy and a great competitor, and Russ believes in and is learning about. That’s just accented what we’re doing.
“The thing I’ve never listened to is 'Hey, you’ve got to throw the football more to win,'” Carroll said. “That’s not the truth. That’s just not the truth. You need to have balance, and you need to be able to do what you need to do to utilize your players. That’s all we’re about. Russell is the best he’s ever been because he’s the most experienced he’s ever been.”
1st Down Pass Rate Quarters 1-3 | ||
| Rk | Team | Pct. |
| 1 | Bills | 56.6% |
| 2 | Seahawks | 56.4% |
| 3 | Texans | 56.1% |
| 4 | Chiefs | 55.2% |
| 5 | Eagles | 55.1% |
| Source: Sharp Football Stats | ||
(Here's Wilson showing off his deep accuracy on a first-down, 47-yard TD pass to Lockett vs. Arizona.)
A little history on how Seattle got to this point:
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle’s bell-cow running back, retired after the 2015 season. Seattle ranked 25th and 23rd in rushing the next two seasons. Carroll was determined to get better balance in his offense and hired Brain Schottenheimer as the new coordinator.
“When we were brought in, we were brought in to do what? Fix the run game,” Schottenheimer told Sports Illustrated after Week 1. “That’s why I was brought here. Let’s fix the running game. Well, then you’re here and you see, ‘OK, we did that. We led the league in rushing.’ Then the next year, we’re a little more balanced.”
Now Seattle is wide open. The analytics community is happy, and it’s a beautiful thing to watch.
Base vs. spread: Seattle has a great linebacker corps, so good that it played its base 4-3 defense the most in the NFL last year, 69%, according to Football Outsiders. Nobody else was over 40% last year.
In the Week 7 loss to Arizona, Seattle kept its three linebackers on the field about 15 snaps vs. three- and four-wideout sets, especially on first down. One reason was that Seattle wanted speedy rookie linebacker Jordyn Brooks, the first-round pick who ran 4.54 seconds in the 40-yard dash, on the field to spy Kyler Murray.
(Here's Murray completing an 18-yard pass out of a four-WR set vs. Seattle's base defense two weeks ago.)
Would Seattle do that against the Bills? It will be something to watch, especially on early downs. The Seahawks are depleted at nickel corner. Their top nickel is out for the year. Their No. 2, Ugo Amadi, likely is out this week with a sore hamstring. Their No. 3, D.J. Reed, is on the injury list with a sore hamstring. Reed is a little-used third-year player who saw his first action of the season last week.
The expectation is that Seattle will want to use Reed a lot, presuming he can suit up, because they’re getting safety Jamal Adams back. Adams is a great blitzer. If they stay in the base D with three linebackers, they’re not going to be able to blitz Adams much vs. the Bills’ spread sets.
Almost nobody sticks with three linebackers against the spread these days, but it’s nothing new.
In the Bills’ comeback win over Houston in 1993, defensive coordinator Walt Corey ditched the dime defense at halftime. Down 28-3, the Bills played their base 3-4 defense the entire second half, with linebackers Carlton Bailey and Marvcus Patton replacing two defensive backs. It worked. The Bills forced Warren Moon to check down, made sure tackles and got the Oilers off the field. It's one of the great coaching adjustments in Bills history.
The Buffalo Bills’ offense has made a big leap in efficiency on third downs this season. It’s important the Bills keep it going in Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks in Orchard Park.
The 30,000-foot view: The Seahawks won a Super Bowl in Wilson’s second season (2013), and lost the Super Bowl in his third (2014) on the infamous goal-line interception play against New England. Wilson has been spectacular in each of the five seasons since, but the Seahawks haven’t been able to get past the divisional round in four playoff appearances since 2014. One reason is that the NFC West is so tough, and Seattle hasn’t earned a top-two seed and a bye. The Seahawks have been beaten out for the division title the past two years by the NFC champion – the Niners (13-3) last year and the Rams (13-3) in 2018. Seattle’s draft record the past five years has been decent enough, despite the fact that it picks late every year. Seattle hasn’t picked higher than 27th overall in the past eight years. Wilson turns 32 later this month. Seattle’s title window looks like it will stay open for a good four or five more years, at least.
A familiar foe: Carroll is 7-3 overall as a head coach vs. the Bills and 4-6 as a visiting coach at Orchard Park. This is his first visit to Bills Stadium since 1999, when he was head coach of the Patriots. Carroll also was an aide on Kay Stephenson’s Bills staff during the 2-14 season in 1984.
Asked his most memorable game in Orchard Park, Carroll said the 1994 opener, his first game in his lone season as Jets head coach, a 23-3 New York win. The Bills had some offensive line problems that day.
“We had to live with the freaking K-Gun for all those years,” Carroll said. “I was coaching defense and getting killed year in and year out. I finally got a chance to go up there as head coach in the opening game of the season. We had for me one of my favorite wins ever because of the respect we had for Marv and the team and all of their accomplishments.”
Carroll also had a memorable upset as Jets defensive chief two years before, in 1992. The Jets won 24-17. It was the week after Jets defensive lineman Dennis Byrd had suffered a broken neck in a game.
“I think it was a weather game, it was nasty,” Carroll said. “I thought the ball was kind of flying in some special ways that day. Some unique things happened. There was a real spirit about our guys. I remember (owner) Leon Hess was in our locker room prior to that game. I never remember him but that one time in there. And he was walking around the locker room saying out loud to the guys, ‘If you don’t want to play in the game, it’s OK, we’ll understand.’ And I’m thinking, ‘Oh no, man, we’re trying to get ready to play.’ We went out and found a way to win.”
Stats for the road: Seattle is using 12 personnel (two tight ends) on 31% of its snaps, and it’s successful. The No. 1 tight end is Greg Olsen, and the No. 2 is 265-pound Will Dissly. That could be a problem for the Bills. Seattle is No. 1 in the NFL passing out of 12 personnel, according to Sharp Football. Wilson has a 135.3 passer rating out of the group, with eight TDs and one INT. ... Wilson ranks No. 2 to Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers in passing yards (604) on throws 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. Wilson was second last year and third in 2018. And Wilson is accuracy on those throws (53.1%).
