Column: Bills’ front four unlikely to do enough to stop Russell Wilson

No way is the Buffalo Bills’ defense up to the challenge of preventing Russell Wilson from playing as the NFL MVP he has been through the Seattle Seahawks’ 6-1 start.

That isn’t meant to be an insult to the Bills’ defenders. The same can be said about almost any other opponent on the Seahawks’ schedule and most teams in the league.

You don’t stop the guy. You don’t even contain him. You just, well, do your best to survive what he can do as a passer and runner.

So far, only one team, the Arizona Cardinals, has managed to do that, and it was mainly because their offense, led by the Wilson-like playmaking of Kyler Murray, was able to produce enough points to score a 37-34 victory in overtime. And this happened in a game in which the Cardinals’ defense did what could be considered an “effective” job of occasionally disrupting Wilson.

The Bills are 6-2 and have a solid grip on first place in the AFC East. But their defense didn’t come close to being effective against the two best quarterbacks they’ve faced, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill.

Making Wilson look anything other than great starts with a dominant effort by the defensive line, something the Bills’ front four has yet to demonstrate against an elite team.

“If their front four can get home, then Russell can be human,” former NFL quarterback Brock Huard, who will be the analyst for Fox Sports’ coverage of the Bills-Seahawks game Sunday at Bills Stadium, said by phone. “If your front four can't attack him, then you’ve really got no chance.”

Consider Wilson’s passer rating of 120.8. Only five quarterbacks have had better ones through the first seven games of a season: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Dan Marino.

Consider, too, that the Seahawks, who once favored more of a ground-and-pound approach, have shifted to putting the ball in the air more often than in recent memory. In 2018, they ranked last in the NFL, throwing 47.56% of the time. In 2019, they were 27th at 54.34%. This year, they’re ninth at 60.98%. Through the last three games, 63.18% of the Seahawks’ plays have been passes.

Why not? Wilson has completed 71.48% of his passes for 2,151 yards and 26 touchdowns. Only Brady, with 27, has thrown more in the first seven games of a season. The Seahawks also have, arguably, the league’s best receiving duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

“I think they kind of took that approach that, ‘Hey, he’s our best player now and we’ve got to let him go and win games for us,’ ” Hall of Fame coach and NBC Football Night in America analyst Tony Dungy said by phone.

The Seahawks also have been hit hard with injuries at running back.

But their pass-happy ways have become more of a defining characteristic of their offense, rather than an alternative born out of necessity. They’re a reflection of a logical conclusion by coach Pete Carroll that his team always has a better chance of winning when Wilson has the ball as a thrower or runner. Wilson has also shown the ability to succeed when pass plays break down. Seattle ranks second in the NFL in scramble yards.

In beating the Patriots last Sunday, snapping a seven-game losing streak to the club that has owned the AFC East, the Bills showed they’re poised to win the division. Beating the Seahawks would say what the Bills failed to communicate in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Kansas City: They can hang with the big boys.

“Beginning (Wednesday),” Huard said, “it's going to be a very clear message to say, ‘Hey, this is a measuring stick game. We beat the Patriots, we control our destiny in the AFC East. But you're playing the MVP of the league and you're playing the 6-1 Seahawks coming in here. And the only way we're going to beat them, front four, is if you guys impact this game consistently.’ ”

No one in that group has done a thing to suggest there will be anything approaching consistent disruption Sunday. Jerry Hughes did not have a sack through six games before his exceptional performance against the New York Jets. But the quarterback was Sam Darnold and the rest of the team consisted of, well, the Jets.

This is the Seahawks, who are trending toward another Super Bowl appearance. This is a coaching staff led by Carroll, one of the smartest in the business, and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. And this is Wilson, aka the league’s top MVP candidate and Hall of Famer in waiting.

“I think he's the type of guy right now that everybody would want in the league because his mobility and what he can do moving around really limits what you can do against him,” Dungy said. “You play zones and he's so precise and can pick them apart. So, you play man-to-man, but if you play man, he's got the ability to run. He can make a 20- or 30-yard run, so you almost say, ‘Well, if I play man, I've got to put somebody on him (as a spy).’ And that limits who you can double cover.

“So, if you're going to double cover Metcalf or Lockett and you've got somebody on Russell, there's not much else you can do and he just finds those mismatches.”

Still, the Bills’ secondary, with major money invested in cornerback Tre’Davious White and safety Jordan Poyer, must do its part even if, as is usually the case against Wilson, they’re at the mercy of what happens with the front end of the defense.

For the most part, they’re coached to follow one cardinal rule: Stick to the man you’re covering until the last possible moment of the play.

“Any mobile quarterback throughout the league gives you headaches, especially a guy like Russell Wilson,” Poyer told reporters on a video call. “He’s maybe 5-11, so he’s kind of hard to see back there, especially if he’s able to take off and run. It’s being able to understand that he will take off and he’s taking off looking to throw or run the football. So, us being able to plaster on the back end is going to be huge.”

Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier will need to put together one of the most brilliant game plans of their three and a half seasons in Buffalo. Its brilliance, though, could be in its simplicity.

Huard expects the scheme to look a lot like what McDermott did when facing Wilson when McDermott was defensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers. Wilson managed just five touchdowns and had four interceptions in five meetings against the Panthers' defense under McDermott. 

"I think they will try to come up and rush those four,” Huard said. “That's been a lot of what McDermott likes to do, it's built into their scheme.

"If you look at Russell versus Carolina, and I know it was not all Sean McDermott because he left, but it's the same kind of scheme. There were games that were a little rougher for Russell and many of those were Luke Kuechly up in those gaps and that front four was hitting him and impacting him and making life a little bit difficult.”

Wilson’s supporting cast is playing a significant role in his dominance this season. The Seahawks are built to throw the ball well. Wilson not only has game-breakers to catch the ball, but he also generally has a fair amount of time to find them.

“I think what you're really seeing this year and why these numbers are so gaudy and just off the charts, is this is the best O-line he’s had since 2013,” Huard said. “And as far as pass-protecting, there's no question this is the best that he's ever had. There was a stretch there, two or three years, where that offensive line was horrendous. I mean, you could have cut four of the guys and I don't know if they get picked up by anybody.”

At 31 years old and in his eighth NFL season, Wilson is a perfect example of a quarterback who has gotten better with age.

Not just mentally, but physically. He’s moving as well as at any point in his career whether he’s avoiding pressure, running to throw or running to run.

“His understanding of the game just keeps getting better,” Dungy said. “And now you're seeing just a little more time with these receivers, so you see this chemistry involved. And he hasn't really lost the athleticism. Usually, guys are going to slow down, and you say, 'Oh, he's not going to run as much, he's not going to move around as much in the pocket.' But he is still the athlete that he was five years ago.

“He just has a better understanding of the game and seemingly more chemistry with these receivers.”

As a result, Wilson can incorporate more nuances in his game. In Poyer’s view, that makes him every bit as dangerous as his amazing talent would suggest.

“Just based on watching the tape, he’s doing a lot with his eyes in his drop-back,” Poyer said. “He’s able to look defenders off because he understands his offense. He’s able to get his eyes one place and come back to the other and make accurate throws. You have to stay disciplined and it’s going to take high-level execution.”

That’s only the starting point. It will take much more, which few defenses can give, to do enough to get the better of Wilson.