Jim Kubiak has been analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for BNBlitz.com. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks. He recently was named head coach at Hilbert College.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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Overview
The Buffalo Bills lost a heartbreaker to the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, falling 33-27 in overtime. The Bills’ first half was the polar opposite of their second half, as three sacks and difficulty against Tampa Bay’s blitz put Josh Allen and the Bills in a deep hole, trailing 24-3 at halftime. Despite the need for balance and a running game to take the pressure off Allen, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll did not call a single running play to a running back in the first half, choosing instead to run Allen.
The second half was an entirely different story, as the Buffalo defense came to life, enabling the Bills’ offense to come roaring back to tie the game 27-27 with just 22 seconds remaining to force overtime.
For the second consecutive game, the Bills never led.
Allen grew more comfortable as the game wore on and played his best football toward the end, leading the Bills back into the game with a fantastic second half and a scintillating fourth quarter. Allen ran for a touchdown in the third quarter, threw a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns and led the Bills’ offense on the final game-tying drive to send the game to overtime. In the fourth quarter alone, Allen completed 15 of 21 pass attempts.
He had career highs with 36 completions and 54 passes for 308 yards. He also was the Bills’ leading rusher, with 109 yards on 12 carries. His overall performance grade was 92.2%.
First quarter
Play selection: Eight plays – seven passes, one run.
Allen: 5 for 7 passing for 30 yards. Two sacks. One carry for 14 yards.
Performance grade: 90%.
Score: Buccaneers, 7-0.
The Bills’ slow start can be attributed to two second-down sacks during the first two series. On second-and-10, the fourth play of the game, the Buccaneers blitzed and sacked Allen.
Here, the Buccaneers lined up in a “bear” front, meaning the left guard, center and right offensive guard were covered by defensive linemen. This alignment was a precursor for a blitz, as Buccaneers safety Andrew Adams rushed Allen’s right side. He was not accounted for in the five-man protection.
Linebacker Lavonte David lined up to Allen’s left and pretended he was blitzing, which pulled Allen’s eyes to the left side. The Bills had a three receiver formation to the right, and the Buccaneers disguised the blitz from Adams. Typically, during a blitz, a defensive player rotates and “stacks” behind a blitzing player to defend the space or the man in the voided area. The Buccaneers didn’t show anyone behind Adams and tried to cover that space with middle linebacker Devin White.
Allen should have attacked the blitzing side by throwing to Cole Beasley, who had widened from White. It was clear why Allen was looking to his left, and this disguise enabled Adams to get his free rush. Had Allen been able to read the blitz to the right, he would have thrown into the voided area to the blitzing side, because, although the disguise was terrific, the actual coverage was poor. The blitzing Adams was untouched and Allen had nowhere to go.
On the Bills’ second possession, Allen completed two passes and ran the ball on a quarterback sweep, moving the Bills to midfield. The drive was foiled by this second-and-7 pressure.
Here, both left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown were unable to keep their rushers from penetration and Allen recognized immediately that he had to try to escape the siege. Allen was facing man coverage, and because the Buccaneers did not bring a sixth defender, he technically should have had enough time to take advantage of the man-to-man coverage down the field. This wasn’t a “hot” situation because the Bills had the same number of protectors as rushers. Allen was almost able to get to the line of scrimmage, but the pressure from the individual rushers was too much and Allen was tackled for a loss.
The first quarter essentially ended there, with two sacks and two stalled drives, and the slow start contributed to offensive momentum for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Second quarter
Play selection: 16 plays – 13 passes, three runs.
Allen: 7 for 13 passing for 100 yards. One interception, one sack. Three carries for 29 yards.
Performance grade: 82%.
Score: Buccaneers, 24-3.
The second quarter began with the Buccaneers kicking a field goal and taking a 10-0 lead.
Allen was poised and accurate as he completed passes to Emmanuel Sanders on a post-curl and to Stefon Diggs on a dig route that moved the Bills into scoring position. Both throws were well-protected and showed terrific timing from Allen. Three plays later, Allen had the Bills knocking on the doorstep on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers 3-yard line.
Here, linebacker Anthony Nelson made it look as though he were rushing and then backed out into the area that Allen was trying to attack with Gabriel Davis’ inside route. On the other side, the Buccaneers blitzed linebacker White. Imagine seeing a defensive lineman in a three-point stance to your left and then a blitzing middle linebacker to the right. Tampa pressured on the right side and then dropped Nelson from his defensive end position into the hole and into a linebacker position on the left.
This “zone-blitz” principle was a terrific defensive scheme in this situation, as it is very difficult to account for as a quarterback. Allen did a tremendous job of not throwing an interception, as he was no doubt surprised that a down player fell back into coverage. Fortunately for the Bills, Allen saw Nelson and he wisely threw the ball away. This allowed the Bills to get their first points of the game and close the Tampa lead to 10-3.
Brady led the Buccaneers for another touchdown on their next possession, which increased Tampa Bay's lead to 17-3. On the next Bills possession, Allen suffered another sack that stunted another offensive drive.
Here, I am inclined to believe center Mitch Morse was responsible for the Buccaneers’ right side linebacker, White. Morse slid to the right and helped right guard Daryl Williams, but the Bills’ protection had three offensive players sliding to only two defensive rushers. I believe Morse should have included White as the third defender in the zone protection concept. Running back Matt Breida was not responsible for White, but as he blitzed, Breida made a last-ditch effort to get a piece of the unaccounted-for defender. If Breida in the protection scheme is counted to the right side, the Bills had four offensive blockers to account for three defensive rushers. Mistakes like this made Allen feel like he was under siege for most of the first half.
Tampa scored again to go up 24-3 and put the game nearly out of reach.
On the next series, Allen was under pressure again and threw his only interception of the game.
Surprisingly, the Bills’ offense called only four running plays in the half, all quarterback runs. The Bills were 0 of 5 on third downs, compared to the high-efficiency Buccaneers, who were 5 of 8 on third downs. Buffalo ran a total of 26 plays for 158 yards in the half, while Tampa ran 43 plays for 303 yards.
Despite the offensive woes, and a huge deficit to overcome, Allen and the Bills would battle back and get into the game, scoring 17 unanswered points in eight minutes to tie the score.
Third quarter
Play selection: 19 plays – 11 passes, eight runs.
Allen: 8 for 11 passing for 51 yards. Four carries for 28 yards and one touchdown.
Performance grade: 94%.
Score: Buccaneers, 24-10.
Allen accounted for the only points of the third quarter with this quarterback counter run.
Here, Allen’s fake sweep to the right to Isaiah McKenzie created flow to that side, while Williams and Brown pulled from their right guard and tackle positions, respectively, on a counter to the left. This was a terrific play call and use of deception by Daboll, as well as excellent execution by the offensive line. Allen was untouched as he crossed the goal line.
And the Buffalo comeback was on.
Allen was nearly perfect in the third quarter, committing only one minus, a missed throw to Beasley. He completed 8 of 11 pass attempts, and despite the Bills trailing 24-10 at the end of the third quarter, Allen’s inspirational performance seemed to breathe hope into the team as they prepared to mount a fourth-quarter comeback.
Fourth quarter
Play selection: 26 plays – 21 passes, six runs.
Allen: 15 for 21 passing for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Four carries for 38 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Tie, 27-27.
The Buccaneers kicked a field goal early in the fourth quarter to extend their lead to 27-10, so every possession for Allen and the Bills mattered as the clock ticked down. On the next possession, the 10th of the game, Allen led the Bills on a six-play scoring drive that resulted in this touchdown pass to tight end Dawson Knox.
Here Allen read the zone, three-deep coverage, and took advantage of Knox’s free release into the seam. The single-high safety, Antoine Winfield Jr., was responsible for the middle third of the field. Knox’s seam route took advantage of the space between the cornerback and Winfield. This was a tremendous read and throw by Allen, particularly because he injured his left foot on the previous play. This touchdown, which put the game within reach at 27-17, gave the Bills momentum.
The Bills’ defense tightened and forced another Tampa punt, giving Allen another opportunity to close the deficit.
Allen was nearly flawless and completed 5 of 7 attempts on a nine-play scoring drive. The first-and-10 throw to Diggs stood out as perfect execution in a key moment in the game.
Here, Allen recognized the zone coverage of four deep and was able to place the out route onto Diggs’ facemask, throwing the ball over Ross Cockrell and in front of the cornerback to that side. This was a perfectly thrown football that traveled over the defenders and into the reception area, on time and with tremendous confidence and velocity.
Two plays later, Allen threw this touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis to make it a three-point game.
Here, the Buccaneers blitzed with a six-man pressure. This time, Allen saw Winfield and reacted by throwing into the voided area created when the defender blitzed. Davis was able to beat Carlton Davis to the inside on a slant route. Allen beat the blitz in a pivotal moment in the game with big-time execution at a critical point.
With the score 27-24, Allen and the Buffalo offense would get the ball back one final time to win or tie the game.
Allen led the Bills on a 13-play drive that ended with a Tyler Bass field goal to tie the game and force overtime.
There were two huge plays on this drive. The first was the fourth-down completion to Davis, who fought for the yardage to convert. But the second, this tight end delay to Knox, was the offensive play call of the game.
Knox had been doing a great deal of chipping from his tight end position. He would initially try to get a piece of a pass rusher before releasing into his pass route. On this particular play, he pass-protected, delayed, and then turned to the inside and up the field. His longer pass set, and his delay, sold the defenders that he was in protection. When Knox released, there was no one there for the Buccaneers. This was a smart way to get Allen an easy completion while demoralizing the persistent pass rush. The result was a 24-yard gain and first-and-10 on the 13-yard line with 33 seconds remaining.
The Bills tied the game with a field goal following a questionable no call for pass interference. Diggs’ route was clearly disrupted by defensive contact, inhibiting his ability to make a play on Allen’s fade route. Had this been called, perhaps the Bills would have scored a touchdown rather than a field goal on the next play.
Overtime
Play selection: Three plays – two passes, one run.
Allen: 1 for 2 passing for three yards. Zero carries.
Performance grade: 95%.
Score: Buccaneers, 33-27.
The Bills won the toss, but sputtered in overtime on just three plays. On third-and-4, the Bills again went to Diggs. This time, one too many moves and shakes by Diggs actually kept Allen from knowing where he was going and where to throw the football.
If Diggs was running a locked hitch here, meaning a hitch vs. press coverage, he definitely took too long. Allen was waiting for Diggs to get to his reception area, and Diggs used too many moves to get there. Allen pulled the trigger without knowing exactly where Diggs was going to end up and the play resulted in an incompletion.
Conclusion
Allen’s toughness, grit and leadership were both admirable and incredible at times. But, like a gas leak, the unwillingness to run the football with running backs is slowly killing the Bills’ offense and putting too much pressure on the production of just one man. Allen took a physical beating in this game, being sacked, scrambling for his life against the blitz, running quarterback sweeps and counters and ending up with a sprained foot.
On one hand, it is creatively refreshing to run the quarterback as many times as the Bills do. Allen is an extraordinary talent and why not use all that ability? On the other hand, the traditional formula for running the football with power comes from your running backs. The question that everyone is asking is this: Is Josh Allen the best running back on the Bills team? If he is, then there is a fundamental problem. If he isn’t the best option to run the football effectively, then why is he running so much?
The Bills are unconventional in the sense that they aren’t afraid to expose Allen to punishment by running him 12 times for 109 yards. Devin Singletary and Breida carried the ball a combined seven times for 64 yards. The Bills have gotten away with this distribution partially because of Allen’s young, pliable frame, but I’m of the opinion that using the speed and agility of other players would be more valuable in the long run, spreading the production out and protecting your best player from having to carry the whole load. This has to be on the mind of everyone within the organization and not a new idea, but strangely one that remains.
