Let’s see if we can get this straight.
The New York Mets, the National League’s greatest failure at 28-35 and going nowhere even after winning six of their last eight games, still have no interest in shopping Freddy Peralta or anyone else President of baseball operations David Stearns still has faith they can make a postseason run.
The Detroit Tigers, easily the American League’s biggest bust at 26-38, are telling teams that two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is off limits for now, and after winning four consecutive games against the first-place Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, they may even decide to keep him in hopes of a miraculous comeback.
The San Francisco Giants just scored 30 runs in consecutive games against the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers — their biggest output since 1944 — and tell you that a sell-off isn’t even whispered about in their front office.
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The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins, two more teams going nowhere, say they aren’t ready to sell considering the AL absolutely stinks, and they are somehow still alive in the wild-card race.
Considering this delusional wave of optimism, they’ll soon have you believing that Rob Manfred and Bruce Meyer are about to enjoy a golf outing and a new collective bargaining agreement finalized over a candlelight dinner.
Seven weeks remain before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and you have no further to look than the historic collapses by the Tigers and Mets last year, along with the miraculous run by the Cleveland Guardians, to know that wild and crazy things can happen in a pennant race.
Still, let’s have a little dose of reality, can we?
These teams aren’t going anywhere.
So why not at least pick up the phone, start engaging in preliminary trade talks, and see if there’s a potential match, you know, before the deadline?
Would that really be so nuts?
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal walks towards the dugout during an April 23 game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Comerica Park in Detroit.
“I understand there are times to do value trades," longtime general manager Doug Melvin and now special assistant for the Brewers, tells USA TODAY Sports, “but sometimes, you’ve just got to go get guys and not worry about that. That’s what holds up some of trade deadline deals. Everyone is worrying about value trades instead of just getting the guys they need.
“Teams are just so afraid to engage early."
Maybe it’s time to take a page out of Melvin’s playbook, who played a vital role in making the Brewers who they are today.
Melvin pulled off one of the greatest deals in Brewers’ history, forever changing the franchise’s destiny in 2008, with a move that will live forever in MLB folklore.
Melvin didn’t worry about hoarding his top prospects. He didn’t freak out over the possibility that one of his prospects could become a future All-Star. He wasn’t panicking about how his move would be perceived by the media.
He just pulled the trigger on July 7, 2008, more than three weeks before the trade deadline, and traded four of his top prospects for impending free agent CC Sabathia of Cleveland.
It changed the course of history.
Sabathia, who was 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA, was acquired for the Brewers’ No. 1 prospect Matt LaPorta, their first-round draft pick a year earlier, along with left-handed pitcher Zach Jackson, right-hander Rob Bryson, and a player to be named later.
The only real hold-up, says Melvin, who began telephoning Cleveland a month earlier to express interest, was with GM Mark Shapiro and assistant Chris Antonetti trying to decide between outfield prospect Michel Brantley and prized infield prospect Taylor Greene as part of the package.
“They were torn, they wanted to see them a little more," Melvin said. “Both were really talented. So I finally said, 'Mark, how about we do this: If we don’t get to the playoffs, we pick the player. If we go to the playoffs, you get the choice and pick the player you want.'"
That player to be named turned out to be Brantley, who became a five-time All-Star and played 15 years in the big leagues.
“We were pretty clear defining what the market was and who we thought would be involved," said Shapiro, now president of baseball operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. “If you look back at the history of the deals, I did, I was definitely an early mover."
It was a deal the two teams liked at the time and would do all over again 18 years later.
“We liked this deal a lot," Shapiro said. “Matt LaPorta was the key guy, but getting Brantley made it an incredible trade."
Just like that, the Brewers’ destiny was dramatically altered.
“It showed our players and our fans," Melvin said, “that we're committed to winning, and winning now."
Sabathia, who cried after getting the news, was given the option to spend a few days with his family and join the Brewers late. He declined. He showed up two days later, walked into an elated Brewers clubhouse and beat the Colorado Rockies in his first game, 7-3, pitching six innings and allowing two earned runs in front of a sold-out crowd. Five days later, he pitched a complete game and homered in a 3-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. He threw another complete game and struck out 10 in his next start against the Giants. And in the next, a three-hit shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals.
CC Sabathia went 11-2 for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008 after a July trade from Cleveland.
He become one of the greatest trade deadline acquisitions in baseball history.
Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.64 ERA with seven complete games in 17 starts. He ignored the advice of his agent and pitched on short rest in his last three starts of the season, throwing 335 pitches the final nine days. And he clinched the Brewers’ first playoff berth since 1982 on the final day of the season, a 3-1, four-hit complete game victory over the Cubs.
A legend was born.
“That was the jolt that we needed," Melvin said. “It meant so much to our players. When you see the players busting their balls and working so hard, the front office has to work harder themselves and see what we can do for them.’’
It also turned out to be a stroke of genius acquiring him early. The Brewers got an extra five starts out of Sabathia, who went 4-1 with a 1.82 in July, pitching three complete games and racking up 39.2 innings.
Sabathia departed after the season for a record seven-year, $161 million contract with the New York Yankees, winning the World Series the next year in 2009, but he left an indelible mark on the Brewers and was inducted into their Wall of Honor last month.
“That jump-started the entire organization," Melvin said.
The Brewers became the ultimate role model for small-market teams, drawing 3 million fans in three of four seasons, beginning with Sabathia’s arrival. They started winning and never stopped, coming within two games of the World Series in 2011, and have now produced nine consecutive winning seasons with seven playoffs berths and five division titles.
It was the single-most impactful trade in Brewers history.
And it was one of the biggest “what-if" misses in Los Angeles Dodgers history.
The Dodgers also were in on Sabathia. Ned Colletti, the former Dodgers GM, believed they were on the verge of reaching a potential deal with Cleveland that would have left the Brewers empty-handed.
The Dodgers offered catcher Carlos Santana, a future All-Star and Gold Glove first baseman; infielder Andy LaRoche; pitcher James McDonald; infielder Ivan DeJesus; and a fifth prospect. Cleveland was sending Sabathia, third baseman Casey Blake and utility man James Carroll to Los Angeles.
Colletti remembers getting a stamp of approval from manager Joe Torre that afternoon (“he was all fired up"), but when he approached owner Frank McCourt, he didn’t want to assume the $10 million in salary while also parting with prospects.
“A few weeks later, we still got Manny Ramirez with Boston paying his salary. And then we got [Greg] Maddux in August. Can you imagine if we had all three of those guys when we played Philly in the postseason?
“If we had gotten those guys, we might have had the guns to beat those guys."
The Dodgers had to wait another dozen years before they won the World Series.
Skubal could be the greatest pitcher to hit the trade block since Sabathia. Just like Sabathia, Skubal will be a rental too, set for the free agent market after the season where he’s expected to command $400 million. And just like Sabathia, Skubal is expected to make that kind of impact, yielding a 41-15 record and 2.41 ERA since 2024.
So, who has the guts like Melvin to pull off a deal for Skubal?
The Yankees? Dodgers? Padres? Cubs? Rays? How about those Brewers again?
“If I’m the Tigers," Melvin said, “I’d think about putting Skubal out there right now."
Skubal, who had arthroscopic elbow surgery five weeks ago, first must prove he is healthy. He’s pitching in a minor league rehab start Sunday, and if all goes well, could return to the Tigers rotation next weekend against Cleveland.
Rival executives believe that Skubal will need to make at least three starts to convince teams he’s healthy.
Perhaps even more important, the Tigers also have to convince themselves they have no chance to get back in the playoff race before moving him.
The trouble is that with expanded playoffs, and the AL being appallingly mediocre, every team believes they still have a chance. The Royals, Angels, Giants and Rockies were the only teams facing a deficit larger than six games entering Saturday.
And there are a bunch of clubs that share the same philosophy waiting until nearly the last possible moment to make deals.
“I think there’s a much more definitive valuation in players," Shapiro says. “Teams have the ability to precisely measure the expected return.
“Back then, we didn’t have the firm capability to determine the impact in value. A lot of it was intuitive. Now, you’re more cautious and more hesitant to move before understanding what the full market value might be.’’
The expanded postseason also decreases the value of making major moves to simply make the playoffs. If they are going to give up a significant part of their future, they want a legitimate chance to win a division title, and not a wild-card berth, to secure a first-round bye.
“Your World Series odds are probably going to be correlated to your odds of getting a bye,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said in his Friday gathering with reporters. “Getting a bye is such a big deal. It’s effectively not only winning one round but also, by getting a bye. In theory, you’re playing an opponent that should be in a lesser state. … The bye is that important.
“If you want to look at it differently, I’d say a lot of the aggressiveness is based on the ability to get a bye.”
Then again, it could be a cop-out. The Dodgers didn’t have a first-round bye last season and still won their second consecutive postseason World Series championship. The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t have byes as wild-card teams in 2023 and were playing one another in the World Series.
When the opportunity presents itself, you better be ready to pounce.
“When I was in San Francisco with Sabes [Giants GM Brian Sabean]," Colletti said, “we were always making rounds of calls in the middle of May, just in case. If you know who you want, there’s no reason to wait.
“I remember learning from my first boss, Dallas Green, and his philosophy: If you are sure who you want, and your team has a chance, don’t wait. These opportunities don’t come around too often.
“You better go for it."
Yes, just like 10 years ago, when Theo Epstein, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, traded for Yankees All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman. The price was steep. It cost them their top prospect, infielder Gleyber Torres, with Epstein left answering why he was willing to sacrifice the Cubs’ future for the ultimate prize.
“If not now," Epstein said, “when?"
Three months later, Epstein was standing on stage hoisting the World Series trophy, the Cubs’ first championship in 108 years.
“There are times," Melvin says, “that you’ve just got to step up."
It’s beginning to be that time.
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