Kyl on defensive after surge by Democratic challenger

A new statewide poll shows 45 percent of likely voters say they intend to support another six-year term for Kyl versus 35 percent for the commercial developer. By contrast, Kyl was ahead by a 60-26 point margin in January.

Kyl campaign consultant Margaret Kenski said that jump was expected. She said Pederson went from being a virtual unknown to spending millions on advertising in the last six weeks.

But the surge also has put Kyl on the defensive. Kenski acknowledged that the incumbent opted to use some of his accumulated campaign funds to respond with his own barrage of TV ads.

The flurry of commercials has each side suggesting that the other's secret plan is to spend even more.

On paper, Kyl has more money in the bank, with nearly $7.3 million on hand at the end of March, the most recent reporting period. Pederson's cash on hand was $2.7 million, including $2 million of his own finances he donated on the last day.

Those figures do not reflect the new commercials by both sides.

Kyl campaign aide Andy Chasin said Peterson has shown he can quickly add a lot of money to the race simply by writing out a check. By contrast, Kyl has to raise funds.

But Kyl can -- and has -- called on the Bush administration to help raise large quantities of cash in short periods of time. That includes the president himself coming to Phoenix last November to raise $1.5 million, Vice President Cheney holding a Tucson fundraiser in March which pulled in $400,000, and a planned $500-a-head Laura Bush event set for next month in Scottsdale.

Pederson, however, is not without some big guns: Former President Clinton will appear at a $500 shindig in Phoenix on June 1.

How much good Kyl's new ads are doing remains an open question.

Pollster Earl de Berge who conducted the survey for the Behavior Research Center noted that much of the thrust of Kyl's TV message has been to paint Pederson as a "liberal," even linking him politically to Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and the Clintons -- both Bill and Hillary.

"It might actually be sending a positive message to people who don't know who Pederson is but tend to be more moderate or liberal," de Berge said. Instead, Kyl's commercials may be simply consolidating Kyl's own conservative base.

The survey of 631 voters, conducted earlier this month, has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.