Buffalo remains in the throes of swelling gun violence, with shootings up 61%

Forty-eight people were shot in the city last month, and there's only been one month since the start of 2011 in which more people got shot, according to Buffalo Police Department data.

But even as homicides and shootings remain significantly elevated, a trend also seen in other cities across the country, the amount of gun violence on city streets appears to be diminishing slightly, according to the latest police department data.

Over the first two months of the year, shootings were up 103% over the 10-year average, according to a Buffalo News analysis of police data. Through the end of April, shootings were up 84%.

Through the end of July, that figure's up 61%.

"We have trended in the right direction and hope to continue that downward trend," Buffalo Police Deputy Commissioner Joseph A. Gramaglia said.

Though the pace of the rise in gun violence has not kept up with what Buffalo saw at points earlier this year, more people have been shot so far in 2021 than in any other year to this point since at least 2007.

From Jan. 1 through July 31, 225 people were either wounded or killed in shootings, according to department data.

Buffalo had three homicides last month, fewer than the four slayings in July 2020 and half the average for the month over the last decade.

The number of slayings so far is 82% higher than the city's average over the last decade, according to a News analysis of police data.

July began with a wave of violence – over the three-day Fourth of July weekend, 21 people were shot. That included a quadruple shooting in the Ferry Grider Homes that killed a 3-year-old boy.

The gun violence this year has reached many parts of the city, including Allentown and downtown Buffalo, where there was a double shooting Saturday near Pearl and West Chippewa streets.

Two men were shot June 6 outside Allen Burger Venture on Allen Street. Buffalo police made an arrest in that case. Another double shooting happened July 8 just east on Allen from the June 6 shooting. An arrest was also made in that case.

Of the Buffalo's 49 total homicides, 45 were shootings.

"It's primarily driven by gang violence," Gramaglia said, when asked what's behind the escalation in gun violence, which in Buffalo and across the country began at roughly the start of 2020.

Between 2011 and 2020, the highest homicide mark for the first seven months of the year came last year, when there were 36, according to police department data. The second-highest figure was 2018's 35.

Buffalo's peak for homicides came in 1994, when there were 92 killings in 12 months.

The most recent peak in the number of shootings came in 2018, when 180 people were shot from Jan. 1 through July 31.

What's to blame?

It remains unclear precisely what's to blame for the latest increase in violence.

Several factors have contributed and some are pandemic-related, like a lack of community programs and anti-violence efforts that had to be paused due to the public health crisis, as well as a downturn in the economy and lost jobs, Gramaglia said.

He and other law enforcement officials also continue to cite changes to the state's bail laws, which allows some charged with crimes to be released rather than incarcerated pending trial.

Compared to last year, gun arrests in Buffalo are up 57%, Gramaglia said.

"But the problem remains – a high number of gun defendants are still being released on very low and sometimes no bail, and that includes some repeat gun defendants," he said.

The Buffalo Police Department has reinstituted many community programs in recent weeks, including the "Taking It To the Streets" outreach events in neighborhoods. Community days in each of the five police districts are also coming back.

The department also has increased patrols to target "those individuals causing the most violence," the deputy commissioner said, an effort buoyed with the "invaluable" help of a federal task force created last month.

The ongoing flurry of shootings in Buffalo is problematic, not just because of the loss of life and the suffering caused by the violence, but a lot of people are becoming numb to it, said Mia Ayers-Goss, director of Most Valuable Parents.

"It's just becoming too normal," said Ayers-Goss, "and that is frightening and it's horrifying that our children have become almost numb to it. And that's what we're fighting against."

MVP, a Buffalo anti-violence group that aims to help children before they reach for a gun, focuses on the trafficking of illegal guns and runs programs aimed at preventing violence.

Ayers-Goss said she wants the Western New York community to realize that gun violence isn't just "an inner-city problem," but one that can affect anyone.

"A lot of times the suburban people think that they don’t need to worry about it. And you don’t want to wait until your child is affected or your husband is affected," she said. "You don’t want to wait until one of your family members is affected before you start to care."