New York Republicans trudge off to the state convention in Nassau County this week, displaying their trademark eternal optimism but facing just about every possible political disadvantage.
Democrats outnumber them by more than 3 million voters. Republicans have failed to elect a statewide candidate since Gov. George E. Pataki in 2002. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, meanwhile, has muscled into a fundraising champion and rides high in the polls.
But the GOP candidate for governor expected to leave the convention as its endorsed candidate – Rep. Lee Zeldin of Suffolk County – begins his campaign so confident that he forfeits a promising congressional career for a shot at Hochul or one of two other Democratic candidates. He is raising substantial amounts of money, emphasizes his credentials as an Iraq War veteran and hopes his strong standing in the party will carry over into the election.
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Still, Republicans may have set up an official donnybrook after financier Harry J. Wilson last week announced his last-minute entrance into the gubernatorial contest. Now the specter of a rare Republican primary for governor is bound to dominate the conclave at the Garden City Hotel in Garden City, but not detract from a new sense of optimism.
"I think Chairman Langworthy has done an exceptional job rebuilding enthusiasm in the GOP, and that's not easy," said political consultant Christopher M. Grant of state Chairman Nicholas A. Langworthy. "It's been a long time since people were so excited about a statewide race and a chance at electing a governor."
Zeldin, who has been building his candidacy throughout the state for more than a year, arrives at the convention Monday morning with enough committed county organizations to easily leave as the endorsee. But even if Wilson fails to win enough convention delegates to qualify for the ballot, he is expected to hire workers to collect signatures on designating petitions and ensure a primary race against Zeldin.
A Westchester County resident, Wilson narrowly lost to Democrat Thomas P. DiNapoli in the 2010 contest for state comptroller, and since then has been regularly recruited to run for governor. But even this year he ignored the entreaties until last week and a commitment to spend $12 million of his own funds, beginning with new television ads touting his humble roots in Johnstown and a reputation of turning around troubled companies. Now his campaign slogan is "turn around New York."
"Harry Wilson is an outsider who can’t be bought," his website reads. "He’s not part of the Albany political club where corruption seems to just be another day at the office. Instead, he’ll clean it up."
But after Zeldin spent months sewing up the party endorsement, Wilson's candidacy suddenly and unexpectedly clouds the Republican picture. Many party leaders would have welcomed a Wilson effort early in the process, but his late entrance now looms as a concern.
"It certainly is interesting timing," said Niagara County Chairman Richard L. Andres. "Our strategy all along was to coalesce around our candidate and move forward to take on the Democrat. That's where we were at."
Andres said most party leaders like and respect Wilson, but don't appreciate the sudden specter of a potentially divisive primary.
"I don't think the party needs a primary and it won't benefit the party," he said.
Some insiders refuse to accept the doom and gloom surrounding the party since losing its State Senate power base following the 2018 election. Grant, who emerged from former Rep. Chris Collins' organization to run GOP races around the country, says too many people used to regular Democratic victories in New York are writing off the Republicans. "A whole lot of optimism," he says, propels New York Republicans ready to brand Hochul as "an accidental governor, a fraud and a lightweight."
And he predicts the GOP nominee will continually link her to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who resigned in disgrace last August.
"She will wear the sins of the Cuomo administration no matter what," Grant said. "You can't be lieutenant governor to Andrew Cuomo and then act like he's not there."
Grant also notes last year's Republican victories on Long Island as "significant," as well as gains on the New York City Council. He says Zeldin can raise campaign funds and that a malaise plagues Democrats who are not especially motivated to vote for Hochul.
"It's a difficult environment," he said, "an environment in which all bets are off. And it's going to be a Republican year."
It may prove a much more difficult assignment for "down ballot" candidates, who have scored no Republican success since Dennis C. Vacco snared the attorney general election in 1994. Attorney John Sarcone has made the most progress among potential challengers to incumbent Democratic Attorney General Letitia James, garnering endorsements of 37 Republican county committees.
Some party sources look to Joe Pinion of Yonkers, a Newsmax network figure and African-American, who is expected to challenge veteran Democrat Charles E. Schumer – not only a four-term incumbent but majority leader of the U.S. Senate. Other candidates expected to seek convention approval are Paul Rodriguez for comptroller and Alison A. Esposito, a deputy inspector in the New York Police Department and Zeldin's choice for lieutenant governor.
