Nate McMurray was ruminating with reporters about a whole lot of things Wednesday morning in the gymnasium of St. Joseph’s Collegiate Institute.
The Democratic candidate for the 27th Congressional District had just squared off with Republican incumbent Chris Jacobs and Libertarian Duane Whitmer at St. Joe’s annual debate when he began answering some questions and ducking others.
Jacobs had just noted it was “ironic” that the Democrat was suing Delaware North Cos., which McMurray says fired him from a vice president’s position for challenging Jacobs – nephew of the company’s chairman. McMurray didn’t want to talk about that, even though he filed the suit two weeks before Election Day.
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But he did delve into facing Jacobs in New York’s most Republican congressional district. Indeed, Democratic competitiveness in the ultra-red 27th proves a fair question since McMurray lost by just over 1,000 votes to former Republican Rep. Chris Collins in 2018, and by just 5 points to Jacobs in a June special election.
“If you look at the numbers, I should be getting blown out by 30 points,” he said, pointing to a long line of forgotten district Democrats who were – well – blown out by 30 points.
“Ever since Tom Reynolds redesigned the district, no [other] Democrat has come close,” he said, referring to the Republican powerhouse with a reputation for expertise in redrawing district lines who once held the seat.
If he wins this year, McMurray said, he will work to change a redistricting process that “disenfranchises” Democrats and Republicans alike.
“A lot of Republicans won’t come out because they think ‘my guy is going to win anyway,’ ” he said. “If you’re a Democrat: ‘Even if we all vote, it’s very difficult to win anyway.’ ”
Can’t really argue with that logic. But you might argue that McMurray won’t be able to do much about it.
As the Politics Column has pointed out, new district lines will be drawn for the next congressional election in 2022. But for the first time in anyone’s memory, Republicans in Albany who were always part of the process will be virtually ignored.
That stems from their crushing defeats in 2018 that spelled the end of the Republican Senate and any influence in an Albany now totally dominated by Democrats. And an omnipotent Democratic Party will not be heeding even Democrat McMurray’s call for a process fair to Dems and Repubs alike.
McMurray has few friends among organization Democrats. Erie County Chairman Jeremy Zellner proved openly unenthusiastic to another McMurray candidacy this year, eventually yielding to the former Grand Island supervisor’s dogged efforts. Since then, it’s fair to say party efforts are concentrated elsewhere.
McMurray often boasts of his run-ins with Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo – no favorite in the ruby red 27th District. And after Cuomo’s forces in 2018 tried to foist Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul onto district voters at McMurray’s expense, you understand his reasoning. You might also understand that Cuomo won’t be of much help to McMurray.
All this reminds us that either McMurray or Jacobs will face big troubles at reapportionment time. Most observers believe Western New York will lose a congressional seat because of population shifts, and Jacobs might get squeezed into a district boasting a much more pronounced shade of blue (which may explain his apparent efforts to distance himself from President Trump).
However, if McMurray wins this year, he could inherit a new district featuring lots more Democrats.
But Democratic leaders have little relationship with him. Ditto for McMurray and Cuomo. And it’s a sure bet that a Democrat with lots of Headquarters friends would mount a primary challenge to the outsider. Any number of big Democratic names come to mind from Buffalo and Rochester.
But did somebody say outsider? And did somebody also mention that McMurray relishes the reputation?
Lots of political antics are sure to come. But a Congressman McMurray might pray for the political stars, moons and planets to align against him – just to run as an outsider.
