Not-so-early college basketball Top 25 for 2026-27: Florida is the new No. 1 as Illinois and Gonzaga rise, Louisville slips

Illinois wing Andrej Stojakovic? Returning. Michigan center Aday Mara? Departing.

Wing Milan Momcilovic is returning, but not to Iowa State.

Big man Tounde Yessoufou is also back, but not to Baylor.

The transfer portal and NBA Draft decision game shaped the college basketball landscape for two months. But with the former closed and the latter concluded, clarity has emerged.

The following forecast has been updated from the original, which was published in mid-April.

Here we go …

1. Florida: The Gators did not clean up in the transfer portal or sign a dynamic recruiting class. But they were arguably the biggest winners in the NBA decision game as all three big men, Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu, shunned the draft. (Only Chinyelu formally engaged in the process.) Add guards Boogie Fland and Urban Klavzar to coach Todd Golden's rotation, and the best team in the SEC last season looks like the best team in the country next season. (Previous: 2)

2. Illinois: Coach Brad Underwood and Co. were not one-hit wonders. Yes, point guard Keaton Wagler is leaving for the NBA, but guard Andrej Stojakovic opted to return and will join a bevy of rotation players, including forward David Mirkovic and center Tomislav Ivisic. The Illini also added Providence guard Stefan Vaaks, who averaged 25.5 points in the Big East tournament. (Previous: 6)

3. Duke: The Blue Devils are well set for the regular-season grind after Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell withdrew from the draft to join mega-recruit Cameron Williams and a slew of returnees in Durham. (The group includes Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba.) As a reminder: These rankings reflect our projections for the regular season, not whether teams will find new and preposterous ways to blow leads in the NCAA Tournament. (Previous: 5)

4. Michigan: The national champions lose star forward Yaxel Lendeborg and his wingmen on the frontcourt, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson. But they retained point guard Elliot Cadeau and shooter Trey McKenney, acquired big men Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati) and J.P. Estrella (Tennessee) and have a starting spot waiting for elite recruit Brandon McCoy. Even with some regression, the Wolverines will remain a Final Four favorite. (Previous: 1)

5. UConn: This projection requires a leap of faith in the aftermath of the Huskies losing Tarris Reed and Alex Karaban — and with Solo Ball taking a medical redshirt next season. But Dan Hurley has repeatedly proven he's worthy of our confidence. And it's not like the roster is barren, with Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins returning, along with the arrival of Nik Khamenia from Duke. (Previous: 4)

6. Michigan State: The return of star guard Jeremy Fears, who was projected for the second round of the draft, cements Michigan State's status as a Big Ten favorite alongside Illinois and Michigan. That said, we are forever skeptical that coach Tom Izzo will have enough playmakers to advance deep in the NCAAs. Once the second weekend arrives, teams cannot win with defense alone. (Previous: 7)

7. Louisville: It's not the outcome you might have expected, but the Cardinals currently claim the No. 1 transfer class in the country, according to the 247Sports database. It features Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad, Kansas big man Flory Bidunga, Arkansas wing Karter Knox, Iowa forward Alvaro Folgueiras and others. If coach Pat Kelsey can make the pieces fit, Louisville will move on from the (unsatisfying) Mikel Brown era and challenge for the ACC championship. (Previous: 3)

8. Arkansas: All-everything point guard Darius Acuff leaves a massive void to fill, but the Razorbacks seemingly have the ingredients necessary to build on their success last season. They received mixed news in the NBA stay-or-go game with Billy Richmond returning to school and Meleek Thomas remaining in the draft. But as usual, coach John Calipari landed a stellar freshman class. The defense must improve, at least in March. (Previous: 8)

9. Texas: The heart of the rotation that led the Longhorns from the First Four to the Sweet 16 has departed, save for big man Matas Vokietaitis. But coach Sean Miller's incoming class of recruits and transfers is one of the best in the land. It includes guards Isaiah Johnson (Colorado) and Mikey Lewis (Saint Mary's) and forward David Punch (TCU), but there are other impact players. Many, many others. (Previous: 9)

10. Gonzaga: What was a solid top-25 roster turned into a top-10 lineup when the Zags landed Arizona State big man Massamba Diop (13.6 ppg, 2.1 bpg). He joins Houston transfer Isiah Harwell, returning point guard Mario Saint-Supery and wing Davis Fogle, who could be the program's next first-round draft pick (although probably in 2028). If forward Braden Huff returns to full health and production, coach Mark Few should roll through the Pac-12's inaugural season and return to the second weekend of the NCAAs ... if not the third. (Previous: 14)

11. St. John’s: Admittedly, the attrition was severe for coach Rick Pitino, who lost star big man Zuby Ejiofor and forwards Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell (combined production: 38 ppg). But Pitino received massive news last week when Baylor big man Tounde Yessoufou both withdrew from the draft and committed to the Red Storm. He forms the heart of an incoming talent wave — Syracuse transfer forward Donnie Freeman is elite — that should keep St. John's on the same tier as UConn. (Previous: 10)

12. Arizona: One of the toughest teams to project. The Wildcats lost significant production (Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Koa Peat), but coach Tommy Lloyd has proven highly adept at reconstructing his roster on the fly with a mix of high school recruits, transfers and international prospects — not to mention the development of returning players. Blue-chip prospect Caleb Holt and North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon must carry playmaking responsibilities alongside returnees Ivan Kharchenkov and Mo Krivas. At this point, the Wildcats are a favorite in the Big 12, but perhaps not the favorite. That would change if they land Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic. (Previous: 11)

13. Tennessee: Rick Barnes repeatedly has proven his program should not be overlooked, and yet … the Vols are often overlooked. With an elite transfer class that includes Wake Forest's Juke Harris, Notre Dame's Jalen Haralson and Cal’s Dai Dai Ames — it's on the same tier as Louisville's class — Tennessee appears well-positioned to maintain an impressive standard of success. (Previous: 24)

14. USC: The roster is well stocked with three proven returnees (Rodney Rice, Alijah Arenas and Jacob Cofie), blue-chip recruits and a solid collection of transfers. Meanwhile, Eric Musselman is a Year 3 coach, having led Nevada to the Sweet 16 in his third season in Reno and Arkansas to the Elite Eight in his third season in Fayetteville. If the Trojans don't rise to the top third of the Big Ten next winter, they might not ever reach those heights under Musselman. Everything is set up for success. (Previous: 15)

15. Houston: For the first time in forever, the Cougars don't have a clear-cut case for the top 10. Joseph Tugler's return should spur the harrowing defense, but the offense must be rebuilt around point guard Dedan Thomas, who averaged 15 points for LSU, and returning wings Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty. We suspect teams that have been blown off the floor in recent years by Houston will have a chance at redemption. (Previous: 12)

16. Vanderbilt: What quarterback Diego Pavia was to Vanderbilt football, point guard Tyler Tanner is to Vanderbilt basketball. His decision to withdraw from the NBA Draft at the deadline was one of the most significant, offering the Commodores a chance to remain relevant in the SEC and nationally. Watch for Washington State transfer Ace Glass to thrive in a supporting role. (Previous: 18)

17. Nebraska: Many of the little-known players who led the Cornhuskers to their greatest season are returning, with leading scorer Pryce Sandfort (17.9 ppg) atop that list. But our forecast is tempered slightly because of an issue unrelated to the roster details: For the first time in school history, Nebraska will face expectations — real, justifiable, lasting expectations. No more sneaking up on opponents for Fred Hoiberg and Co. (Previous: 13)

18. Alabama: The Crimson Tide came out on the right side of Amari Allen's NBA stay-or-go decision. His return, combined with the arrival of blue-chip recruit Jaxon Richardson and Boise State transfer Drew Fielder, creates a solid core for coach Nate Oats. If suspended guard Aden Holloway (felony drug charges) also returns — we would not be surprised — then Alabama will have a top-10 roster. (Previous: Not ranked)

19. Miami: The momentum continues for second-year coach Jai Lucas, who led the Hurricanes to 24 wins in his rookie year and landed two top transfers in Georgia center Somto Cyril and Villanova guard Acaden Lewis. Add blue-chip recruit Caleb Gaskins to the core rotation and the Canes should offset the departure of top scorer Malik Reneau. (Previous: 21)

20. Virginia: The Cavaliers surprised everyone in 2026 except those who followed coach Ryan Odom’s career. (He won big at UMBC and Utah State.) Virginia has the NIL game necessary to compete for a top-tier position in the ACC, especially with leading scorer Thijs De Ridder returning. UC Irvine transfer Jurian Dixon could be one of the biggest surprises in the ACC. (Previous: 16)

21. Kansas: We excluded Kansas from the April forecast in part because of the uncertain status of Tyran Stokes, the nation's No. 1 recruit, who was choosing between the Jayhawks and Kentucky. Not surprisingly, he landed in Lawrence. We expect his uplift to be more pronounced than Darryn Peterson's impact, largely because there's no indication Stokes will recuse himself from the proceedings on a frequent basis. (Previous: Not ranked)

22. Saint Louis: Cream Abdul-Jabbar, Milk Chamberlain, Steph Blurry — whatever you want to call him, Billikens big man Robbie Avila will no longer grace college basketball. That said, most of the key pieces to SLU’s 29-win machine are back. So, too, is the mastermind, coach Josh Schertz. St. John’s and Gonzaga should be the best of the non-football schools next season, although the Billikens could prove that presumption wrong. (Previous: 17)

23. North Carolina: Henri Veesaar's departure was a major blow to the Michael Malone era in Chapel Hill, but there's enough talent (remaining and incoming) to keep the Tar Heels relevant. Much depends on Utah transfer Terrence Brown, who averaged 19.9 points in the Big 12. A sizable portion of that production came in lopsided losses. How will Brown fare in close games against the ACC's best? (Previous: 19)

24. Iowa: There’s a case for Ben McCollum as the top NCAA Tournament coach in the sport not named Dan Hurley, but these rankings are based on the regular season. And without court maestro Bennett Stirtz, the Hawkeyes could encounter a few potholes from November through February. (Previous: 20)

25. VCU: The bulk of the rotation responsible for 28 wins and the first-round upset of North Carolina is returning for coach Phil Martelli Jr., and that’s plenty good enough for us. The Atlantic 10 could be the best of the mid-major conferences with VCU and Saint Louis leading the charge to relevance. (Previous: 22)

Also considered: BYU, Indiana, Iowa State, Kentucky, Miami (Ohio), Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio State, Purdue, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Utah State, Villanova and Wisconsin.