When the Buffalo Bills run: Two of the Bills’ top four running games last season came against New England, including a season-best 190 yards in the home win. Of course, the Patriots’ defense is much improved from last year, thanks in part to the return of linebacker Dont’a Hightower and the addition of edge rusher Matthew Judon. Last week against New Orleans, the Bills used quarterback Josh Allen frequently in the run game. It worked, as he gained 43 yards on eight carries, but that’s not something the Bills will want to do. EDGE: Bills.
Nobody is better than Bill Belichick at making the opponent play left-handed, writes Mark Gaughan.
When the Buffalo Bills throw: The good and the bad of Allen: He ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ ranking of big-time throws, which measures passes that the analytics website classifies as being thrown with excellent ball location and timing, generally further down the field and/or into a tighter window. Allen has 26 of those throws. On the flip side, he had 19 “turnover worthy” throws, which ranks as second most behind Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. Allen will have to look out for Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November after making four interceptions. EDGE: Bills.
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Ahead of a primetime bout with the Patriots, Bills coach Sean McDermott is still waiting to see what the Buffalo lineup will look like come Monday.
When the New England Patriots run: Damien Harris has emerged as the Patriots’ top running back, with 643 yards and an impressive eight touchdowns. Harris is facing eight-or-more defenders in the box on 29.87% of his carries, which ranks 10th in the NFL, according to the league’s Next Gen Stats. New England also will use Rhamondre Stevenson frequently. He’s quick to the hole, spending just an average of 2.61 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on each attempt, according to Next Gen, which is second fastest in the NFL. The Bills’ run defense should get a boost from the return of defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, who missed the past three games on the NFL’s reserve/Covid-19 list. EDGE: Bills.
Through the first 11 games of the 2021 season, the Bills’ defense has piled up a number of impressive stats.
When the New England Patriots throw: Rookie quarterback Mac Jones was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Month for November. In four games, Jones completed 77% of his passes for 854 yards and seven touchdowns. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly, with an average time to throw of 2.61 seconds that ranks third in the NFL, according to the league’s Next Gen Stats. Jones’ average completed pass travels 5.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, which ranks tied for 10th least in the NFL. The Bills’ defense will get its first taste of playing without No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: Cheap plug alert – check out my colleague Mark Gaughan’s weekly “PlayAction” video segment on buffalonews.com. This week, he points out the Patriots have finished in the top six of the NFL in special teams in eight of the last 10 years. That’s remarkable. New England is great on special teams again this year, led by kicker Nick Folk, who leads the league in points by a wide margin. EDGE: Patriots.
PlayAction is new to The Buffalo News' extensive NFL coverage. Each week, Mark Gaughan, who has covered the league throughout his 38 years at The News, distills X's and O's and strategy relating to how the Bills match up with their next opponent. All in about two minutes.
Coaching: Here we go again. After crashing to a 7-9 record in his first post-Tom Brady season, Bill Belichick has New England back on track – so much so that the New York Times ran a column Wednesday declaring a Brady-Belichick Super Bowl appears “to be on a collision course.” To be sure, Belichick has done a masterful job turning New England around. Bills coach Sean McDermott got his team back on track against New Orleans, but now needs to show he can lead them to consecutive strong performances in the biggest game of the year. EDGE: Patriots.
Prediction: Patriots, 27-21.
