UB football's future should be productive, even with potential personnel losses

In a 17-10 win against Marshall on Friday in the Camellia Bowl, the Bulls (6-1) got a look at how different life could be in 2021.

And, well, it might not be that different.

Even playing without two of its marquee players on offense and defense, two clutch plays in the final 90 seconds by understudies – Kevin Marks’ go-ahead touchdown with 1:09 left, and Eric Black’s sack of Marshall quarterback Grant Wells in the final seconds –  lifted the Bulls to their second bowl win in as many years, and completed their third consecutive winning season.

For UB, 2021 could be a season without running back Jaret Patterson, and will be without defensive end Malcolm Koonce. Patterson, UB’s second-leading all-time rusher, did not play in the Camellia Bowl because of a knee injury and is eligible for the NFL draft. Koonce, a senior, opted out of the bowl game in order to prepare for the NFL draft.

There could be more departures, as transfers could impact UB's roster. Players can also opt to use an extra year of eligibility to stay at UB, as the NCAA Division I board of directors voted in August to give all fall athletes an additional year of eligibility, because of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

“When we get into the second semester, we can give you a little more definite of where our roster is," coach Lance Leipold said after the bowl win.

But even without Patterson and Koonce, the Bulls were still productive, both on offense and defense, in the win against Marshall.

“Two bowl wins, and we’ve won the most games in the Mid-American Conference since 2017, I’ll let you guys decide if we’re on track for what we’re trying to do,” Leipold said. “Every day is a proving day, though. As soon as it hits 2021, we’ll start analyzing and looking at what we’ve got to do to be better in that year. But from where we’re at right now, I’m pleased. 

"I’m disappointed we didn’t win a conference championship. We could have. We got outplayed that day. But as far as the other goals, I’m very proud of our staff and our players.”

Here are four points to ponder for UB as it looks ahead to 2021.

The future of the running game

Patterson and his family chose for him not to play in the Camellia Bowl, a week after he sustained a knee injury in the loss to Ball State in the MAC championship game on Dec. 18. Patterson, who has 3,884 rushing yards and a program-best 52 rushing touchdowns in three seasons, has not announced his intentions to enter the NFL draft or to stay at UB. He is facing a mid-January deadline should he want to enter the draft.  

If Patterson declares for the NFL draft, he would be part of a deep group of running backs that includes Clemson's Travis Etienne, Alabama’s Najee Harris and Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard.

But should Patterson turn pro, the Bulls are deep and skilled at running back, as evidenced by Marks’ performance. The redshirt junior averaged 105.8 yards per game this season and is seventh all-time in rushing for UB (2,621 yards). Marks is also draft eligible, but if he returns to UB for 2021, he’s in position to become the bell cow running back.

The Bulls have also cultivated depth at running back, behind Patterson and Marks. Ron Cook Jr., who played primarily on special teams as a returner this year, got reps in the Camellia Bowl, and UB’s stable includes Dylan McDuffie, Kolbe Burrell, Caron Robinson, Jailen Nias and Tajay Ahmed. UB’s incoming recruiting class also includes running backs Al-Jay Henderson and Michael Washington.

The progression of the passing game

If Patterson leaves, the passing game will need to carry more of the load. Of UB’s 3,349 yards of offense this season, 1,337 came on the pass (39.9%), and of its 39 touchdowns, only seven came through the air (17.9%). UB is tied for fifth in FBS with 32 rushing touchdowns. 

The offense has relied heavily on the run, particularly in the last two seasons with 62.7% of UB's total offense coming on the ground, but Leipold has stressed the need for more offensive balance.

Vantrease threw for 1,326 yards on 96 of 154 passing and was intercepted once; he will be a fifth-year senior in 2021. Antonio Nunn, a senior, finished the season with a team-leading 584 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 37 catches.

UB could return the bulk of its receivers, too. Trevor Wilson (319 yards and three touchdowns on 16 catches) quickly became a favorite target of Vantrease’s as the season progressed, and Jovany Ruiz (192 yards and a touchdown on 20 catches) came through with key catches.

Vantrease is also atop the pecking order of UB’s quarterbacks, ahead of Matt Myers, Trevor Bycznski, Casey Case, Aaron Chase and incoming freshman Brian Plummer.

The future of the defensive line

This is an area where UB shouldn’t be concerned, even with the loss of Koonce and his team-high five sacks. 

UB’s depth on the defensive line shined, despite the absence of defensive end Taylor Riggins this season because of an unspecified injury. Riggins was an All-MAC defensive end who was second in the conference in sacks with 8.5 in 2019. Riggins has not announced whether he intends to return for a final season of eligibility.

Defensive tackle George Wolo, a freshman, had 27 tackles, three sacks and a quarterback hurry; and defensive tackle Eddie Wilson had 21 tackles, a sack and a quarterback hurry.

Even UB’s reserves were productive. Black had three sacks – including the sack that preserved UB’s seven-point lead Friday against Marshall – two quarterback hurries and a forced fumble as a reserve.

Filling holes on the offensive line

For the second consecutive year, the Bulls will again need to replenish their offensive line. Center Mike Novitsky will be a redshirt junior, and left guard Jacob Gall will be a fifth-year senior in 2021. They’re projected to be the only returning starters.

Right tackle Jake Fuzak, left tackle Kayode Awosika and right guard Jack Klenk are fifth-year seniors, and could opt not to utilize an extra year of eligibility. The three led a unit that was a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award this season, and a line that was pivotal in the Bulls' offensive productivity.

The Bulls allowed only one sack, and UB’s offense is among the top teams in the country in rushing yardage per game (287.43, second as of Saturday).

A look at UB's 2021 schedule

The Covid-19 pandemic wiped out UB’s 2020 nonconference slate and limited its schedule to five MAC games, the MAC title game and a bowl game. But if and when the pandemic subsides, and UB and other college athletic programs return to their routines, the Bulls should have a full 12-game schedule in 2021.

That schedule, right now, includes nonconference games Sept. 11 at Nebraska and Sept. 18 against Coastal Carolina, which emerged this season as top Group of Five program. Both games could be an immediate measuring stick for the 2021 Bulls.

There still could be some tinkering with UB’s nonconference schedule. Games against Ohio State and Kansas State were postponed in 2020 because of the pandemic; UB said in July that it plans to reschedule its game against Ohio State – which came with a payout of $1.8 million.

The earliest open date for a nonconference game on the schedule is 2023, but UB is scheduled to host Football Championship Subdivision opponents Wagner in 2021 and Holy Cross in 2022, dates that could be abandoned in favor of makeup dates against Ohio State and/or Kansas State.