We have a shade over half of the college football season still to be played. And, even though every week of results alters the standings and scrambles the picture of what we think we know, we can’t help but draw grand conclusions. We’re fans. It’s what we do.
There were plenty of outcomes that prompted strong responses in Week 6. As always, we’re here to determine which have basis in reality and which are true overreactions. We begin, as it often the case, in the conference of allegedly enhanced meaningfulness, where two nail-biting finishes might have redefined the fortunes of several programs.
Oklahoma defensive lineman Trent Wilson celebrates next to Texas quarterback Arch Manning during the first half of the Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 10 in Dallas.
Texas cooked in CFP
Not long ago in this space, we examined the Texas' path to the SEC championship game. Now that they’ve lost one of the games that on paper should have been in the win column, a berth in the 12-team playoff isn’t a given.
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The next five weeks will tell the tale for the Longhorns, starting next Saturday against an equally desperate Florida squad that has dropped two in a row in decisive fashion. Texas get to stay home for its next two contests after that against the league’s Magnolia State representatives, but neither Ole Miss nor Mississippi State will be easy opponents. After that, the Longhorns have back-to-back road dates at Missouri and LSU, both of which will be trying to secure quality results themselves.
The good news for Texas is the Ohio State win could be a difference maker should the committee be comparing resumes when December arrives. A 9-3 record with the Longhorns’ schedule would likely be good enough to get in, but that means finding three wins in those next five games. Can they do it? Sure, but they have a lot to clean up in order to make it happen.
Georgia running back Nick Peal, left, celebrates with wide receiver London Humphreys after Humphreys scored against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Oct. 10 in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Alabama not back
Actually, Alabama is probably fine. With no teams other than Georgia unscathed in the conference, the Crimson Tide's narrow loss to the Bulldogs won’t damage their body of work.
That is, of course, as long as Alabama handles the remainder of what looks to be a manageable slate compared to other contenders. Yes, we know Auburn is a rivalry game and weird things can happen, and there are road dates at Tennessee and LSU, but there’s no Ole Miss and no Texas on the docket.
Ten wins would all but guarantee a playoff bid, and 11 would probably earn the Tide a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta, and the winner would get a first-round bye. The Alabama faithful are understandably chagrinned with Saturday’s ending, but the overall outlook for the team hasn’t appreciably changed.
UCLA running back Wayne Knight, left, and wide receiver Landon Ellis celebrate a touchdown by Knight during the fourth quarter against Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 10 in Eugene, Oregon.
UCLA home free
As we’ve seen in the above examples, not all conference schedules are created equal in the era of league expansion. The same is true of the Big Ten, where UCLA has emerged as a dark horse contender to match the recent rags-to-riches story authored by Indiana. Heck, the Bruins even followed the playbook of hiring the same school’s successful coach (more on them below).
With its win at Oregon secured, UCLA has an inside lane to the Big Ten title game, with neither Ohio State nor Indiana on the regular-season schedule. The Bruins' two remaining trips east are to Minnesota and Michigan, both formidable on its respective home fields, but hardly juggernauts this year. Next week’s home date with an improved Wisconsin squad isn’t a guaranteed victory either, and of course there’s the crosstown showdown with Southern California in the finale. Overconfidence shouldn’t be an issue for upstart UCLA, but thinking big isn’t out of place either.
Notre Dame running back Jonaz Walton, left, celebrates after scoring a touchdown during a game against Stanford at Notre Dame Stadium on Oct. 10 in South Bend, Ind.
Luck of the Irish
Another of Notre Dame’s early opponents might have done them a favor this week. North Carolina nudged above the .500 mark by defeating Pittsburgh, providing a slight uptick for the Fighting Irish’s schedule strength, which hasn’t had much meat thus far. Wisconsin has done them a similar favor so far.
Will details like that matter? We won’t know for sure until Notre Dame embarks on the back half of its schedule, and that begins in earnest next week at BYU. That contest, and November tilts with Miami and SMU, will determine how much scrutiny the resume will receive.
JMU back to playoffs
James Madison keep finding ways to win, despite having to find new coaches on a regular basis. The Billy Napier era following Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney is off to a great start. After eking out a three-point win at Georgia Southern Saturday night, the Dukes now stand as the last unbeaten squad from the Group of Six conferences.
Of course, future close calls might not go JMU’s way, and even if the Dukes run the table, the Sun Belt champion might not be deemed playoff worthy given the lack of strength in the league. Last year's team benefitted from James Madison winning the ACC, which opened up an additional spot for a conference champion. It may not happen this season, but the Dukes' fans are certainly allowed to enjoy the ride.
A month ago, things were going so well for LSU that Lane Kiffin ended an ESPN halftime interview against Clemson by asking Holly Rowe, “Imagine if we had pro players?”
