In the fall of 2020, Erie County and the Western New York region were hit with the worst wave of the Covid-19 pandemic so far, with record high numbers of new cases and hospitalizations. That wave peaked in mid-January, with the region averaging more than 1,000 new cases per day and 533 people hospitalized. More than 470 Western New Yorkers died in January 2021.
A year later, new cases and hospitalizations are surging to record highs again.
The help arrives just as Erie County reported its highest-ever weekly count of new Covid-19 cases – 5,535 in the week that ended Saturday.
"It's deja vu, all over again," said Dr. Thomas Russo, chief of infectious diseases at the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.
But why?
A year ago, Covid-19 vaccines were just beginning to become available.
Lisa Marie Thomas had finally come around to the decision to get vaccinated. Her appointment…
Now, they are plentiful, and while many people are resisting getting vaccinated, more than 800,000 Western New Yorkers are fully vaccinated.
People are also reading…
It comes down to several factors, according to Russo and Dr. Peter Winkelstein, executive director of the University at Buffalo's Institute for Healthcare Informatics. Both are experts on Covid-19 trends in the region: the Delta variant, the weather, not enough people being vaccinated and the waning efficacy of vaccines for those who did get the shot.
Red alert
Consider this.
Erie County ranks among the 21 counties in the U.S. to report at least 50 Covid-19-related deaths since Thanksgiving.
Covid-19 deaths spiked across the region last week in a now-predictable pattern, following a monthlong surge in cases and hospitalizations.
Maricopa County, Ariz., recorded the most, 207, with Allegheny County in Pennsylvania, where Pittsburgh is, and Oklahoma County, Okla., each reporting 50 deaths, with the other counties in between.
Erie County reported 64 deaths, which ranks seventh-highest in terms of rate: 6.7 deaths for every 100,000 population. The counties where Tulsa, Okla., Grand Rapids, Mich., and Detroit are located ranked the highest. Tulsa County reported 12 deaths per 100,000 population since Thanksgiving.
New York City reported 1.2 deaths per 100,000 population since Nov. 25.
Erie County ranked fourth among the 21 U.S. counties with at least 50 Covid-19-related deaths since Thanksgiving for the number of cases per 100,000 population. Erie County recorded 779 cases per 100,000 population for Covid-19 cases since Thanksgiving, placing it among the Michigan counties for the highest Covid-19 case rates since Nov. 25.
"We are in a red alert situation here," Winkelstein said. "Our case numbers are through the roof. ... Our hospitals are full. This is not a good situation."
With Erie County imposing the latest in a series of health restrictions on some public-facing businesses, small business owners say they're once again caught between people who accept or decry the regulations.
Erie County
While some counties have fewer Covid-19 restrictions than Erie County and lower infection rates, County Executive Mark Poloncarz said trying to compare counties with different climates and population densities is fundamentally unfair.
"I think you would normally expect to see the positivity rates higher in Erie County because of a greater chance of transmission with so many people," he said at his Tuesday news briefing.
He pointed out that, during the summer, when Florida residents were largely indoors and using air conditioning, the state's Covid-19-rates were much higher than Erie County's. But now that it's more temperate in Florida, but much colder in Buffalo, the trends have reversed.
It would be fairer to compare Erie County with Monroe County and other Great Lakes cities, he said. He also pointed out that Erie County's positive test rate is lower than other surrounding counties in Western New York.
If you start with the basics, and look at the history of the medical field, then yes, masking is an effective way to slow spread.
The dawn of Delta
This summer, it seemed like the pandemic was almost over in Western New York. In Erie County, there was a day when only one new case was reported.
"We'd been kind of living in normal mode," Russo said. "Then Delta showed up."
As the new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus spread, new cases increased, and by late October, that increase grew steeper.
That's also when it started to get colder here and people began spending more time indoors.
While the number of workers who lost or are losing their jobs is a small percentage of total workers, every little bit hurts amid a staffing shortage that means hospitals can't operate as many beds – especially during yet another wave of Covid-19 hospitalizations.
"This big spike in cases that we're getting happened at exactly the same time that we had our big spike in cases last year, practically to the day," Winkelstein said.
Covid-19 spreads more easily indoors than outdoors, according to scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Weather is a major driving force," Winkelstein said.
Then came the holidays and get-togethers. Football season. Halloween. Thanksgiving. Hannukah. Christmas is less than three weeks away.
"Whenever we get together, we have food and drink and masks are down," Russo said.
Without taking the rapid antigen test Monday, all the students would have been home for the day, learning virtually. But if they tested negative, they could remain in school.
The 'susceptible pool'
Covid-19 vaccines afforded good protection against infection, serious illness and deaths for several months. But doctors learned that it doesn't last, especially for people who are older or immuno-compromised.
The CDC is now urging all adults 18 and over to get a booster shot, which dramatically boosts immunity. Doctors are hopeful the protection will last at least a year. But the messaging on who should get a booster has been muddled and many people aren't sure whether they qualify or should get it.
At the same time, tens of thousands haven't received a single vaccine yet.
"We were hoping that as the pandemic proceeded and more people got vaccinated ... over time, our susceptibility pool would continue to shrink," Russo said. The virus would become more manageable and would end up acting more like a regular flu, popping up seasonally and more predictably.
"So, instead of the susceptibility pool shrinking, it's probably expanding and will continue expanding until we get the booster shots in arms. I encourage everyone to get boosters."
Vaccines and masks
Wearing masks indoors while at restaurants, stores and other public venues has been proven to reduce the spread of the virus, Winkelstein said.
Just look at New York City, he said.
He recently visited and noted how almost everyone wore masks, even outdoors.
"If you don't have a mask on, everyone is looking at you like you're a strange alien," Winkelstein said.
New York City also has stringent rules about masks and vaccinations. Patrons must show proof of vaccination to go inside a restaurant.
New York City, which was the epicenter of the pandemic when it began in March 2020, now has the lowest rate of new cases in the entire state.
Other regions of the state should take notice, he said.
"We're trying to make sure our hospitals don't get overwhelmed. We're trying to keep our schools open. Nobody wants to close our schools. We need to protect our vulnerable. ... We want to protect our economy. We want our Canadian friends to come visit. We want to feel comfortable going to a restaurant. The way you accomplish these things is you reduce the amount of Covid that's circulating," Winkelstein said. "What works? How do you reduce it? Vaccines and masks."
News staff reporters Patrick Lakamp and Sandra Tan contributed to this article.
