If some parts of Western New York next week begin dealing with a more targeted variation of the pandemic shutdowns that happened in the spring, the reason will be found in the numbers.
In a conference call with reporters Friday morning, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said that the average positive test rate for Western New York, which includes Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany counties, has risen from 1.5% to 2.8%. That increase has happened over the last two weeks.
The governor said Erie County has the highest average positive test rate in Western New York at 3.1%.
The five counties of Western New York combined to report 334 coronavirus cases Thursday, an all-time high of the pandemic.
"At these numbers in these areas, a microcluster response is appropriate," Cuomo said of Western New York and a more targeted response from the state. "We tailor the microclusters to the particulars of that area."
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The "microcluster" approach is a shift from the more broad lockdowns that closed schools and businesses eight months ago. The state has already targeted a host of counties outside Western New York, as well as the New York City boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens.
Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said the region's higher Covid-19 infection rates are mainly attributable to community spread, and not just one particular point of origin.
"Truthfully, that’s what I’m worried about," he said.
The inability to pinpoint isolated sources for Covid-19 cases is one factor that will be used in the state's decision-making over whether to target a ZIP code, census tract or larger community as a yellow, orange or red zone.
Poloncarz has asked to speak with Cuomo and said he expects to hear from him this weekend to get more clarity.
Erie County Health Department officials have been in regular contact with the state's Department of Health regarding the sources of infection for ZIP codes with high Covid-19 case numbers.
Cuomo said Friday that the downstate focus areas are doing much better as he announced the easing of restrictions. He noted that other areas of the state are effectively managing the coronavirus. New York has the fourth-lowest positive test rate in the nation, according to Johns Hopkins University.
"Relative to the nation," Cuomo noted," we're doing extraordinarily well."
But Western New York's seven-day average rate, which has doubled in the last two weeks, is 2.9%. That is the highest among the state's 10 regions and well above the statewide average of 1.7%.
Cuomo said Thursday's statewide positive test rate was 1.86%, which included a 3.04% rate in the focus areas and a 1.7% rate for the remainder of the state.
There were 2,997 positive cases statewide, the state's highest daily total since the first week of May. Statewide hospitalizations were at 1,277; there were 24 Covid-19 fatalities Thursday.
Western New York's rates and case data reflect a significant elevation from last week, when a local epidemiologist said that rising numbers served as a "wake-up call" in Western New York.
The total cases reported by the five counties has now surpassed 200 five times in the previous 10 days. Prior to that, the region had reported more than 200 cases only seven other times, all of which occurred in April and May.
State data, which often differs slightly than county numbers due to differences in the time it takes to report tests and confirm cases, also showed a record-high case number for the region.
Erie County reported a daily positive test rate Thursday of 4.7% after it reported a 5.0% rate on Wednesday, the county's highest since it began releasing daily positive rates in August. Erie County's seven-day average rate is 3.4%.
The World Health Organization recommends a rate of 5% or lower.
Western New York's other counties also reported high totals Thursday.
Niagara County reported 37 cases, its highest weekday total since it had 52 on May 19.
Allegany County had 25 cases, which tied for its second-highest day. Its highest total was Wednesday's 28. After reporting just 122 cases through September, Allegany County has had 331 in September and October.
Allegany County has also reported 10 deaths in the previous six days.
Chautauqua County reported 22 cases Thursday, its 10th straight day in double figures.
Cattaraugus County reported nine cases and one death on Thursday.
The region's Covid-19 hospitalizations decreased slightly by five to 87 on Wednesday, according to state data. The total has tripled since late September.
News Staff Reporter Sandra Tan contributed to this article.
