Political Notebook: Surprising RTA Next margin rested on these factors

It wasn't. 

Preliminary results, which counted the vast majority of the all-mail elections ballots, showed the transportation plan and the tax to fund it passing handily. Voters supported Prop. 418, the transportation plan with 61.2% of the vote. They supported the half-cent-per-dollar sales tax that pays for it, in Prop. 419, by 58.9% to 41.1%.

How did it happen this way? Four key factors help explain.

Only one real campaign

The only real campaign mounted in this election was the one in favor of the propositions. Connect Pima campaign consultant Joe Wolf said Wednesday that the group knew going in that it needed an "aggressive campaign with a robust budget."

"We raised a little over $1.4 million and used almost all of that," Wolf said. "We needed that."

The campaign needed that, he said, because initial polling on the ballot issues six months before the election showed voters split about 44% yes to 44% no, with 12% undecided.

Fueled by donations largely from construction and related interests, Connect Pima spent big on digital, streaming and broadcast TV ads. They included a repeated, somewhat misleading ad suggesting that RTA Next would take care of potholes, which is not a focus of the plan. 

In contrast, the small anti-RTA Next campaign raised just over $7,000 and couldn't afford much more than campaign signs posted along the streets. 

The Connect Pima campaign in favor of the propositions spent about $11.90 per "yes" vote counted so far. In contrast, Tucson Deserves Better spent about 10 cents per "no" vote. 

"They got what they paid for," said Tucson Deserves Better co-chair Jim Glock, a former Tucson transportation director. "You can’t fault them for that." 

The likelihood is that more parity in spending would have led to a more even outcome. 

No alternative plan

One of the challenges of the "No" campaign was that while they could point to flaws in the RTA Next plan, they couldn't offer an alternative.

That's because the only entity in Tucson that can really put a big plan on the ballot is the city of Tucson. And the city's elected leaders, as well as its bureaucratic apparatus, were behind RTA Next. 

They weren't about to offer up an alternative plan that gave voters a reason to vote no. This left voters who wanted transportation improvements with only one option.

"People fundamentally understand that we need to invest in ourselves for transportation infrastructure," said RTA Next opponent and former Tucson assistant city manager Albert Elias. "It’s just that in the format of this election, we only had one option."

'Silent majority' votes yes

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero and the leaders of the Connect Pima campaign both noted in comments Wednesday that the opposition to RTA Next appeared bigger on social media than it was in reality.

Connect Pima co-chair Alejandro Angel noted that he's been on the opposite side of the issue from groups he works with, such as the Living Streets Alliance.

"There's so much negativity in social media, too, when you pay attention to it," he said. "My faith restored that there is a silent majority out there."

Romero made much the same point, noting, "It teaches me that what's happening in the social media universe is not what's happening in reality."

Power structure gets mojo back

The ability of Tucson's power structure to steer the electorate has seemed at times in recent years to be crumbling. 

Top political and business interests got behind the Tucson Electric Power franchise agreement which city voters considered in May 2023. They were smacked down by a 56% to 44% "no" vote. 

Similar groups got behind Prop. 414, a proposed sales tax increase largely for public safety, in March 2025. Voters defeated that by about 70% to 30%. 

If the voters had rejected Props. 418 and 419, too, we could conclude that elite opinion is completely decoupled from that of the mass of local voters. This election turned that trend back, though. 

TUSD borrowing probed

The Industrial Commission of Arizona has taken an interest in Tucson Unified School District after Arizona Daily Star reporting on its finances.

Last year, TUSD borrowed $3.5 million from its workers' compensation account and $13.2 million from its unemployment insurance account to pay for its new headquarters building at 220 W. Sixth St. and renovations to the property. 

These are not accounts out of which TUSD pays claims; they're for paying the districts' premiums and had excess balances. The district expects to pay the money back as soon as it sells two valuable properties at 1010 E. 10th Street and across the street.

The industrial commission, which handles workers' compensation claims in Arizona, is looking into the borrowing, spokesman Charles Carpenter said. 

"We’re sending that over to the fraud unit to have them look at it," Carpenter said of the commission's internal investigators. 

If the fraud unit finds nothing improper, it will end there, he said. If not, they will turn it over to the Arizona Attorney General's Office.