All three of Arizona’s major public universities are projecting smaller fall semester class sizes this year, with university leaders attributing the shift to issues with international student enrollment and changing priorities.
Estimates combining the enrollment at Arizona State University, the University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University account for a drop of about 2,000 college students across the state, making up roughly 1% of the entire university system.
UA is planning for a nearly 2% overall decrease from last fall. NAU expects a roughly 10% drop and ASU may see a 1% decrease. Initial counts are still subject to change as most Arizona universities only just began the fall semester.
In an interview with The Arizona Republic, UA President Suresh Garimella said he was comfortable with the enrollment estimates even if they were smaller. UA reported the declines were driven by fewer out-of-state undergraduate students attending and noted that the school was looking to improve student retention and graduation rates.
People are also reading…
“What's most exciting though is, as we planned, the quality of the students coming in is really drastically improving,” Garimella said.
Arizona's major public universities project smaller fall semester class sizes, with school leaders citing international student enrollment issues and shifting priorities.
NAU's drop in enrollment reflected "a proactive rightsizing strategy aligned to structural fiscal redesign," according to budget documents. In response to questions from The Republic, NAU spokesperson Kim Ott said the school is still seeing a larger first-year class come to campus and more Pell-eligible students, referring to students who receive government grants designated for low-income students.
College-age population declines in U.S.
Universities across the country are facing similar enrollment pressures as those in the Grand Canyon State.
A drop in 18-year-olds largely caused by the Great Recession beginning in 2007 has reduced the number of traditional college-age students. The trend is commonly referred to as the "enrollment cliff." Colleges are expecting a 13% drop in high school graduates by 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
But university leaders disagree on how much that will impact each university. ASU President Michael Crow has routinely pointed to students who have completed some college but don't yet have a degree as a growth opportunity for the school.
“It’s fiction because there's no shortage of people wanting a college diploma in the United States,” Crow said in a previous Board of Regents meeting about reports predicting a decline in college enrollment nationwide.
The rate of Arizona high school students seeking higher education still lags behind the national average. Currently, only half of the state's high school graduates go on to seek some kind of postsecondary education, whether that is at a traditional university or trade school.
And Arizona is also relying on its public university system to support a growing need for highly educated workers as major industries, from semiconductor plants to manufacturing, continue to flock to the state.
Fewer international students enrolling
ASU leaders said nationwide drops in international students were to blame for their slight overall enrollment decrease.
“Although the overall campus enrollment is projected to fall slightly, this is due entirely to delays and visa denials that our admitted international students have faced,” Vice President of Enrollment Matt López said in a statement. “We continue to see strong enrollments from across the country and within Arizona.”
The decline has been ongoing for more than a year, after the Trump administration intensified student visa regulations. Thousands of students have since been unable to navigate the system, putting their education in limbo.
The trend includes UA and NAU. Over the summer, UA projected a more than 5% decrease in international students this fall. NAU expects a roughly 45% decrease, losing more than 300 students compared with last year.
Local education leaders began sharing their concerns about fewer students coming from overseas last year, noting the economic and academic impact they have on Arizona. Before the declines, Arizona had grown its international student enrollment by 50% since 2020. The combined tuition revenue and in-state spending from international students has the same impact on Arizona as hosting a Super Bowl each year, ASU researcher Kent Hill said.
“These are large enough to place institutions of higher education in the top ten of Arizona’s export industries,” Hill wrote in an email in 2025 to The Republic about international student spending and tuition.
