Zohran Mamdani's victory strut is premature | Froma Harrop

Mayor Zohran Mamdani's socialist picks for Congress just knocked off some Democratic incumbents in New York City. They included surprising defeats, especially that of Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Espaillat lost to Darializa Avila Chevalier, who on social media in the past called to abolish the police, free prisoners and stop deportations for any reason, presumably including murder.

It's not like Espaillat's district was dominated by the young professionals who flocked to Mamdani. His electorate is 52% Hispanic and includes such non-hipster neighborhoods as Harlem, Washington Heights and parts of the Bronx.

Nonetheless, Mamdani may have seriously misread the national mood when he said right before the primaries: "When does the race for 2028 begin? It starts now." That was an awesome display of grandiosity for a guy who didn't get 50% of the vote even though he was the official Democratic candidate in a very Democratic city.

The New York primaries may indeed be kicking off the presidential contest in 2028, but not in a way Democrats would like. Look at recent history. Backlash against President Donald Trump's erratic governing style returned control of the House to the Democrats in 2018. Similar forces helped Joe Biden take the presidency from Trump two years later.

The Democratic left sold these results as a thumbs-up for its radical agenda. But those same views -- things like defunding police and obsession with transgender issues -- turned off the middle America voters who gave Biden his win in 2020.

Two years later, Republicans retook the House majority by weaponizing the dumbest things left-wingers said. Similar dynamics powered Trump's return to the presidency in the 2024 election. It is dangerous to assume that disgust with Trump translates into a desire to stop immigration enforcement.

The recently elected Mamdani, meanwhile, is enjoying an overly long honeymoon. The reality is sure to overtake the massive publicity he attaches to the smallest of achievements. New Yorkers are noticing they still don't have free buses, as promised. The rents are not frozen. And universal childcare has not happened. Mamdani also antagonized financial business leaders, jeopardizing the prospects of the young grads seeking white-collar jobs. Those grads are much of his base.

Democrats seeking victories in the heartland should fear having the excesses of coastal socialists hanging around their neck. The veteran New York political analyst Errol Louis described the dangers New York's far left pose to the Democrats' future. As an anchor at Spectrum News NY1, he has interviewed them all.

"They've got some ideas that will not sell in Des Moines or in, you know, Cleveland," Louis said. Their strategists tell him that they're "gonna fight, fight, fight ... get themselves arrested, introduce legislation, whether or not it has a chance of getting a hearing or ever becoming law."

Former President Barack Obama understands well the radicals' lack of appeal outside choice urban corridors. He's called out affluent progressives who think they earn halos by pushing polices deemed to help the less fortunate but end up costing Democrats at the polls. They can embrace left-liberal politics without personally paying a price, Obama said last year.

"You could still make a lot of money," Obama said. "You could still hang out in Aspen and Milan and travel and have a house in the Hamptons and still think of yourself as a progressive."

Democrats have fine hopes that this year's midterms will deliver at least a House majority. The growing dislike of Trump puts wind in their sails.

Trump will presumably not be running in 2028, but the Democrats' aggravating radicals will still be at it. If the race for 2028 starts now, Democrats should be concerned.