Local opinion: Trump tariffs spell trouble for U.S. farmers

Donald Trump pledged to impose across-the-board tariffs of 20% on all U.S. imports, with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Recently, he advocated for 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. These three countries are the biggest consumers of U.S. farm products and cannot afford to put their food supply at risk. Agricultural and food products are among the U.S.’s biggest exports. If enforced, Trump’s threats spell big trouble for U.S. farmers, who are already struggling, when these countries retaliate by looking elsewhere for food. The irony is that voters in key agricultural states who have been some of Trump’s most loyal supporters will suffer the most severe consequences.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates 16% of the U.S. corn harvest and 40% of soybeans are exported. China and Mexico are our largest markets for U.S. soybeans, eclipsing all others. China, Mexico and Canada are three of our four largest buyers for U.S. corn.

China, Mexico and Canada are three of the four largest markets for U.S. pork and three of the five largest for U.S. beef. According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, exports accounted for nearly 30% of total U.S. pork and pork variety meat production in 2023. The National Pork Board reports that for every hog sold in the US, almost $65.00, around 40% of total value, comes from export markets. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of beef, while Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay rank in the top ten (the U.S. is ranked third with $7.2 billion in exports, less than half of Brazil’s total). U.S. exports of beef to China have soared since China signed an agreement in 2017 during the first Trump administration. Before that agreement, no U.S. beef entered China legally. Now, China is the third-largest market for U.S. beef but is increasingly looking to South America, Australia and elsewhere for more trustworthy suppliers. It is also important to note that two of the largest U.S. meat packing companies are foreign-owned: JBS by the Batista family of Brazil, and Smithfield was purchased by the Hong Kong-based WH Group for $4.7 billion in 2013. At the time, it was dubbed “the biggest Chinese takeover” of a U.S. corporation.

Until the first trade war between China and the U.S. during Trump’s first term, China was the No. 1 overall destination for U.S. agricultural goods. That came to a halt during the 2018 trade war until China signed a 2019 agreement to import a set amount of US agricultural goods for two years. During the skirmish, China began diversifying its suppliers, by buying more food and grain from reliable suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.

Brazil can grow two crops in one year, planting soybeans in September and after that harvest, quickly planting a corn crop, significantly increasing Brazilian corn production. Brazil is now the world’s largest grower and exporter of soybeans and beef. Chinese investment encouraged ramped-up production. Brazil increased its soybean production by the equivalent of an area the size of the state of Kansas, and some estimates suggest it has as much as 70 million acres of unused pastureland it can convert to crops, the equivalent of two states the size of Iowa. According to Statistica.com, Brazil’s beef production skyrocketed from 7.49 billion kgs in 2015 to 11.35 billion kgs in 2024.

Trump’s threats may be part of a negotiating tactic, but no country can brush off Trump’s threats and put its food supply in jeopardy, thus they are wisely looking for more reliable and steady suppliers. Once an export market is lost, it is extremely difficult to gain it back as competitors gear up production to meet demand. Trump’s tariffs would almost certainly trigger a trade war which would further accelerate expanded production of grains and livestock in South America, which are already at record levels and force trading our partners to look for alternative suppliers. American farmers, who struggled under the Biden/Harris administration, have been some of Trump’s most loyal supporters and now they will be the innocent victims of his tariff threats.