When the Bills run: Quarterback Josh Allen is also the Bills’ best running back. Allen became just the fourth player to throw for at least 300 yards and rush for at least 100 yards last week when he threw for 308 and rushed for 109, accounting for three total touchdowns against Tampa Bay (Carolina’s Cam Newton, Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson are the others). The question of how much Allen will be able to do on the ground despite a sprained foot looms over this game. Carolina ranks 20th in the NFL against the run, allowing 115.3 yards per game. Devin Singletary has 112 carries for 547 yards this season, which makes him the Bills’ first running back since Travis Henry from 2001-03 to gain at least 500 yards in each of his first three seasons. EDGE: Even.
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When the Bills pass: The NFC has seen enough of Allen. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Bills’ quarterback is averaging 330.1 yards passing per game against NFC opponents, which leads the NFL. Allen also leads the NFL over that same time frame with 3.3 passing touchdowns per game against NFC opponents and is second with a passer rating of 115.4. Allen might not find it quite as easy to throw this week, though, given that the Panthers enter the game leading the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, at just 177.7. Bills receiver Stefon Diggs needs just two catches to reach 80 for the season. When he gets there, Diggs will join Eric Moulds as the only receivers in franchise history with back-to-back seasons of 80-plus catches. EDGE: Bills.
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When the Panthers run: Carolina’s best player, running back Christian McCaffrey, has played just 10 games since signing a four-year contract extension worth up to $64 million before last season. He’s out for the season because of an ankle injury. Carolina was 4-3 with McCaffrey in the lineup and just 1-5 since he got hurt. In his absence, rookie Chuba Hubbard has taken over as the lead back. Hubbard had his fourth rushing touchdown of the season last week and is one of just three rookie running backs with at least 450 rushing yards and 150 receiving yards. EDGE: Bills.
When the Panthers pass: As the old saying goes, when you have two quarterbacks, you really don’t have any. That’s the spot Carolina is in, as Cam Newton and P.J. Walker are expected to get time against the Bills. Newton’s return to Carolina was a nice story, but he’s 0-3 this season as a starter and has overall lost 11 straight with Carolina. He’s turned the ball over four times in the last two games. Newton and Walker will have to watch out for Bills safety Jordan Poyer. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Poyer has allowed a passer rating of 24.8 when targeted this season, which is the lowest in the NFL among all players targeted at least 20 times. Overall, the Bills’ defense has limited opposing quarterbacks to a rating of 67.7 this season. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: The Bills have a big statistical advantage in kickoffs, as Carolina averages 27.7 yards allowed per return, which ranks 31st, while the Bills’ average of 24.7 yards per return is fifth. A strong return game has helped the Bills to an average drive start of their own 32.2-yard line, which is second in the NFL behind only the Patriots (32.6). Panthers punt returner Alex Erickson averages 8.3 yard per attempt, which is tied for 10th. EDGE: Bills.
Coaching: Panthers head coach Matt Rhule made an abrupt change at offensive coordinator during Carolina’s bye in Week 13, firing offensive coordinator Joe Brady and replacing him with senior offensive assistant Jeff Nixon. Could Rhule, who coached the defensive line at the University at Buffalo from 1999-2000, be next? Three consecutive losses and two wins in the past 10 games has Rhule on the hot seat. The Panthers haven’t shown much improvement, and a disastrous final month just might prompt a change. Bills coach Sean McDermott, on the other hand, will have to build on a strong second half against Tampa Bay in hopes of rescuing a season that started with such promise. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 31, Panthers 13
