Have you caught your breath yet, Bills fans?
The first week of the new league year in the NFL brought with it plenty of excitement. Big-name trades and high-profile player acquisitions dominated the news cycle, including here in Western New York. In signing edge rusher Von Miller, the Bills added a future Hall of Famer who they hope can be the final piece of their championship puzzle. It’s only right, then, to start this week’s Bills Mailbag there …
Paul Basinski asks: I’m as excited as the next mafioso about the acquisition of Von Miller. He could be a key piece in the hunt to return Buffalo to the Super Bowl. But did the Bills overpay? Six years and $120 million is a lot of money for any NFL player approaching their mid-30s, isn’t it? Or do you believe Miller has enough gas left in the tank for a lengthy period?
Jay: For all practical purposes, Miller’s contract should be as a three-year deal worth up to $52.5 million. The bottom line is this – the Bills are committing to Miller through his age-35 season. After that, it’s “we’ll see.” That does come with some risks. Here is what General Manager Brandon Beane had to say about signing a player who turns 33 in a week. “We all watched this guy down the playoff stretch and what he showed he's still got,” Beane said.
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“I've seen pass rushers in the history of the NFL do well late into their career and into the end of their 30s. And so, I get the question of this guy's in his early 30s, but you didn't see anything down the stretch with the Rams that said he doesn't have it or he's declining by any means. So that's why it made sense.”
The Bills did pay at the top of the market for edge rushers, but that makes sense given Miller’s credentials. For comparison, the Raiders gave Chandler Jones a three-year contract worth up to $51 million that, for all practical purposes, is a two-year deal worth $34 million, and then we’ll see. When viewed that way, it’s very similar to Miller’s deal on a per-year basis. That contract takes Jones through his age-33 season.
I look at this deal for Miller as the cost of doing business for an elite pass rusher in today’s NFL. He also brings with him the experience that comes with winning a pair of Super Bowl championships. That’s valuable for a roster in Buffalo looking to get over that hump.
Ken R. asks: What is Brandon Beane thinking? Since he arrived here the cap has been a priority not to exceed. Other than securing Josh Allen, he’s been so careful, but in one signing spends $120 million on a 33-year-old Von Miller. I believe he already has had two major injuries during his career. How do you recover cap space for that? How many good receivers and defensive backs can you get for that?
Jay: I understand the trepidation, Ken. It’s fair. However, as laid out above, and in the more complete look at Miller’s deal in today’s edition, this is not a $120 million contract. In fact, it may end up not even being half of that. You’re right that by signing Miller to such a big deal, the Bills have cut into their available money to address other positions – namely cornerback. We shouldn’t be surprised that Beane chose to spend on an edge rusher, though. He has said repeatedly he believes in being strong on both sides of the ball. “If I do see the opportunity to land someone that I believe can help us at a critical position, I'm going to take a swing,” he said Friday. That’s fair.
GaryLo200 asks: Can you stand a few more questions about the infamous 13 seconds? Do you have a sense of how the rest of the league has viewed the Bills' defensive collapse against the Chiefs? Are opposing coaches and players privately laughing at how Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier choked like that? How is it that Travis Kelce was able to stand on the sidelines and predict exactly what defense the Bills would be in at the end? No matter who the Bills sign in free agency, I wonder if the team's biggest obstacle will be these deer-in-the-headlights moments from their head coach.
Jay: There is definitely a sense of “how the heck did that happen” throughout the league. That comes across in Miller’s comments about the situation. Here’s what he had to say Thursday: “I turned the TV on and they’re winning. I turned it off, they’re not winning. I turned it back on, they’re winning. I turned it back off and they lost the game. I’m like ‘Bro, how?’ ” In talking with people at the NFL scouting combine earlier this month, that sense of incredulousness is shared around the league – as it should be. There is no way the Bills should have lost that game. As for Kelce, it doesn’t surprise me one of the best offensive players in the NFL would be able to recognize a defensive formation. It does surprise me that the Bills went with such a prevent defense when it was clear that giving up a field goal potentially brought losing the game into the equation. For as much attention as the kickoff gets when talking about what went wrong, there should be more attention on the defensive alignment. It’s absolutely fair to say that McDermott will be under the spotlight in 2022. That’s not to say his job is (or should be) in any kind of jeopardy, but when he says the team needs to execute better in those situations, and that it starts with him, he’s exactly right.
Geoff Glista asks: It seems given the contracts Harrison Phillips and Levi Wallace signed with their new teams, the Bills could have easily afforded to re-sign both players, unless they wanted to move on from them. Your thoughts?
Jay: I largely agree. Beane pointed out that while he was waiting for Miller to make his decision, that tied up some of the Bills’ available funds. That’s somewhat understandable, but Wallace is counting just $2.5 million against the Steelers’ salary cap in 2022 and Phillips’ deal with the Vikings counts $3.8 million. It feels like the Bills could have found a way to make either one of them work if they really wanted either player back. In Phillips’ case, the Bills added DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle, so spending at defensive tackle was clearly a priority. The plan at cornerback is a bit less clear. Beane did re-sign Siran Neal, but he doesn’t project as a replacement for Wallace. Here’s what Beane had to say about the position Friday: “We're still looking. You try and fill as many needs as you can, with the resources. You take a swing for Von, you've got to be thinner somewhere else to do that. So we're going to look. There are still corners out there. There is a long process, as I talk to the coaches. The main thing is to get this roster set by training camp, and if it's not set then, I'll keep looking to make sure we're ready to go at least by September.”
Dave S. asks: Not to rain on the fun parade for the Bills in free agency, but with the signing of O.J. Howard, I'm assuming the door closes on the homecoming of Rob Gronkowski? I know Tom Brady is back in Tampa, but what does he have left to do? He’s got multiple Super Bowls and has cemented his place as best the best tight end of all time. He had the opportunity to come home and bring home a championship to all his friends and family that brought him up. Imagine it, Gronkowski jerseys worn by every kid in Cheektowaga and Williamsville. The Pegulas naming the new Stadium G&G Field. The McKinley monument replaced in front of City Hall with a 50 foot “Gronk” statue spiking the football in the Super Bowl after catching the game-winning pass from Josh Allen. Oh, what could have been.
Jay: When I suggested bringing Rob Gronkowski home as part of my “GM for a Day” column, I got plenty of responses that were against the idea, given his history with the cheap shot against Tre’Davious White. This is very clearly not a concern for Dave. Yes, the signing of Howard does seem to close the door on that possibility. I’m not sure about all of these suggestions floated, but I do believe Gronkowski would have been a good fit, along with the fun story of him returning home. I do believe there was at least some mutual interest in making that homecoming happen, but Brady’s return likely ended that discussion. It’s reasonable for Gronk to want to stay with the only quarterback he’s ever really known. Take it from a University of South Florida graduate – Tampa’s not bad from October through January.
Jeff Rochwarger asks: I believe all the folks who aren’t vaccinated were “purged” from the roster over the last couple weeks, and I’ll bet there will be zero unvaccinated players for OTAs and beyond. Finally, it would appear from his contract that Levi Wallace is held more than somewhat responsible by the Bills and the rest of the league for the outcome of “13 seconds.” Your opinions?
Jay: As I said last week, I do think it’s merely a coincidence that a lot of the players we believe who were unvaccinated last season no longer are on the team. Some might call that a happy coincidence. I don’t have any reason to believe, though, that their vaccination status had anything to do with the decisions to move on. In the case of Cole Beasley, Star Lotulelei and A.J. Klein, all of whom fit into that category, they were simply overpriced for their projected roles on the team.
As for Wallace, I’ll forever wonder what, exactly, he was doing on the play that Kelce put the Chiefs into field-goal range at the end of regulation. One play alone wouldn’t figure to be the deciding factor in whether to bring him back, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it at least factored into their overall evaluation – if he was indeed at fault. Thanks for all the questions, as always, and a reminder: They can be submitted via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or via Twitter, @JaySkurski.
