Jim Kubiak has been analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for BNBlitz.com. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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Overview
The Bills lost in a stunner to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the seventh-largest upset since 1990 based on point spread. The loss should rattle the core of the Bills’ identity, the offense.
Josh Allen completed 31 of 47 attempts for 264 yards, threw two interceptions and fumbled. Allen’s overall performance grade was 89.5% with a completion percentage of 66%, which would indicate he played fairly well, and he did most of the time, but turnovers were his undoing.
The Bills’ offense ran 65 plays, with Allen throwing 47 passes and recording five rushing attempts for 50 yards. Allen accounted for 80% (52/65 plays) of the load. The result of one player being responsible for such a large share is two-fold. First, defenses are designed to take away what Allen does best. Jacksonville did this to perfection, eliminating big plays down the field while clearly making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Limiting or affecting Allen gives opponents a greater chance to win when he is the sole source of offense. Second, this gross imbalance indicates deeper problems with the players or scheme around Allen. That problem is their inability to run the football.
Yes, the Bills lacked balance, they dropped passes and had a season high with 12 penalties. Yes, they missed blocks at the line of scrimmage and turned the football over. But in the end, the Jaguars were the team that played the inspired, physical and relentless kind of football that wins in the NFL.
First quarter
Play selection: 15 plays – 11 passes, four runs.
Allen: 7 for 11 passing for 46 yards. Two carries for 27 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Tie, 3-3.
On the sixth play of the Bills’ first drive, Allen made this incredible play on third-and-10.
Here, the Bills are lined up in a bunch formation to Allen’s left, with tight end Tommy Sweeney to his right in a tight alignment. The Bills have exactly what they want, crossing routes versus man-to-man coverage. The problem was the protection. The Bills were in a five-man protection as they released Zack Moss out of the backfield. Right tackle Daryl Williams appeared to be surprised by linebacker Myles Jack’s release into the flat to cover Moss. He should have fanned out to account for defensive end Dawuane Smoot. The busted protection should have resulted in a sack, but somehow Allen avoided Smoot’s free rush and picked up this incredible first down.
The Bills marched down inside the 5-yard line, but settled for a field goal to tie the game 3-3.
On the next series, Allen continued to take what was given, efficiently attacking the voided areas of Jacksonville defense. This was a great example of Allen’s awareness to read and react to the blitz.
Rudy Ford was lined up to Allen’s left and blitzed from his slot position. Allen saw the blitz and attacked the voided area by throwing quickly out to Cole Beasley. It is difficult to say if this was a hot throw or if Allen opted to throw the ball to Beasley on an option route more quickly than usual because of the blitz.
Allen was flawless in the first quarter, methodically countering the Jaguars’ moves completing 7 of 11 attempts and throwing the football away twice due to pressure.
Second quarter
Play selection: 15 plays – 10 passes, five runs.
Allen: 6 for 10 passing for 44 yards, two sacks. Two carries for 23 yards.
Performance grade: 94%.
Score: Tied, 6-6.
Allen completed his first four passes of the second quarter as the Bills drove into Jacksonville territory. They were penalized for unnecessary roughness on Dion Dawkins, despite the officials initially saying the flag was on Daryl Williams. This penalty stalled the offensive momentum and created a first-and-25. Allen’s next attempt was a shuffle pass that was dropped by Emmanuel Sanders. On the next play, second-and-25, the Jaguars sacked Allen.
Here, the Bills were facing a four-man pass rush and Taven Bryan simply beat Cody Ford to the outside of his right guard position. Allen had no chance and the sack pushed the offense out of field goal range.
On the next play, Allen pulled another rabbit out of his hat.
He again felt pressure from the four-man rush and scrambled to his left for an amazing 16-yard gain. The result of this tremendous effort was a Tyler Bass 41-yard field goal, which elevated the Bills into the lead for the first and only time of the game, 6-3.
On the Bills’ next possession, a Beasley drop stalled the Bills, which ultimately resulted in their first punt of the game.
Here, the Bills’ offensive line did a great job protecting Allen, who had time to stand in the pocket and wait for Beasley to run his dig route to the inside. The timing of the throw and the route by Beasley were perfect, however, Beasley was not able to haul it in.
The Jaguars continued to make Allen uncomfortable and recorded their second sack of the game on the Bills’ next possession.
The score at the end of the second quarter was tied at 6-6. The combination of dropped passes, and pass protection breakdowns seriously hindered Buffalo’s high-powered, league-leading offense.
Third quarter
Play selection: 14 plays – 10 passes, four runs.
Allen: 6 for 10 passing for 64 yards, two interceptions, one sack. No carries.
Performance grade: 86%.
Score: Tie, 6-6.
The Bills received the football in the third quarter and put together an efficient, nine-play drive that took the offense deep into Jacksonville territory. It was here where Allen made his first big mistake on this third-and-3 play.
Rudy Ford was in man-to-man coverage on Beasley. The passing concept was a drag route by Sanders and a trail by Beasley, with the option to sit in zone or continue across if the Jaguars were in man-to-man coverage. Beasley stopped, presumably thinking he did not want to go into the middle with linebacker Damien Wilson waiting for him. Because Sanders went behind Wilson, the linebacker was looking for his next crosser, Beasley. This caused Beasley to stop his route and enabled Ford to step in front of a late and hesitant throw by Allen.
This turnover eliminated an almost certain go-ahead field goal by the Bills. Fortunately for the Bills, the Jaguars were unable to convert on both a 47-yard and a 42-yard field goal attempt, following a running into the kicker penalty. The Jaguars came up with no points off the interception.
The Bills’ next offensive possession started with a false start penalty on Sweeney and included a 3-yard run by Devin Singletary and another devastating sack.
Here, Allen play-action faked and tried to set up in the pocket. Ford blitzed from his safety position to Allen’s right and beat right tackle Williams to the outside. This forced Allen to adjust and move up into the pocket, but defensive tackle Bryan had compressed the pocket to the point where Allen had nowhere to go. There was very little Allen could do as the pressure made it all but impossible for him to get rid of the football.
Five plays later on the same drive, the Jacksonville defense flustered Allen into another uncharacteristic mistake.
On third-and-12, the Jaguars decided to blitz Allen with what initially appeared to be a six-man pressure, but was only a five-man pressure. Jacksonville overloaded Allen’s right side with four rushers and dropped the left defensive end into the middle. The Bills were in a five-man protection and could only account for three of the four defensive players on the right side. This should have been the time for Allen to throw the ball to Singletary, his hot, free-released running back.
Schematically, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll released Singletary as the weapon of choice against a blitz like this. When the fourth rusher to that side blitzed, Allen should throw the ball into that voided area. It is likely Allen wanted more on the play and tried to avoid the free rusher, as he has done so many times in the past. Unfortunately for the Bills, Allen was not able to escape or avoid the rush, and in a panic he flung the ball into the arms of Jacksonville’s Josh Allen.
This was a costly mistake that enabled the Jaguars to capitalize with the go-ahead field goal, a score that eventually clinched the game.
Fourth quarter
Play selection: 17 plays – 16 passes, one run.
Allen: 12 for 16 passing for 110 yards, one sack, one fumble. One carries for zero yards.
Performance grade: 78%.
Score: Jags, 9-6.
Allen and the Bills had three opportunities in the fourth quarter to make amends, but this was not to be.
On their seventh possession of the game, the offense was able to push the football to the Jacksonville 42-yard line, only to be called for a false start on a fourth-and-2 play. This caused coach Sean McDermott to re-evaluate his decision to go for it, and the Bills punted.
The Bills came roaring back on the next drive. Allen completed four passes in a row and led the Bills to this third-and-2 play at the Jaguars’ 37-yard line.
This was a zone-read running play in which Allen was tasked with reading the unblocked player, Smoot (No. 91). Here, Allen puts the football into the belly of Singletary while keeping his eyes on the unblocked defensive end. Smoot’s initial movement is toward the Singletary run, but he keeps his body in a position to be able to tackle Allen, effectively defending both.
Allen wanted to make the play, and when he pulled the football and tried to run, he was engulfed by Smoot and fumbled. In retrospect, had Allen given the football to his running back, Singletary would have picked up the first down. If Allen had just held onto the football, the Bills would have attempted a game tying field goal. The turnover, however, was the worst-case scenario.
Incredibly, the Buffalo defense held again, and Allen had another opportunity to tie or win.
The Bills got the ball with 2:59 remaining on the clock. Allen completed 4 of 6 attempts and led the offense to the Jacksonville 39-yard line, but then a lack of execution created this devastating sack.
Adam Gotsis was lined up on center Mitch Morse. He changed his position just before the snap from Allen’s right to his left on the center. Linebacker Jack (No. 44) pretended to rush by taking two steps forward but then pulled back. This was just a four-man pass rush. Upon review of this play, it is evident that Buffalo right tackle Williams didn’t move until Allen had the football in his hands and was dropping back to pass. This failure to get off on the snap allowed Smoot to beat him around the edge untouched.
Perhaps the shift by Gotsis, or the fake rush by Jack, caused confusion for Williams. However, on the biggest play of the game, it was surprising that Williams would be so egregiously late to block the defensive end. Smoot’s rush, and the stunt by Jacksonville’s Allen compressed the pocket, leaving no time and no options for the quarterback.
Allen was sacked, and the Bills were pushed out of field goal range and forced into a fourth-and-15, which the Bills could not convert.
In the fourth quarter, the Bills managed to give the game away with mistakes on all three possessions, including a false start penalty, a fumble and turnover by Allen, and a terrible sack against a four-man pass rush.
Conclusion
In watching the film of the game again, the Bills' effort and execution on the offensive side of the football was even more surprising. There is plenty of blame to go around with Allen’s turnovers, horrendous protection problems, dropped passes, and penalties, however, the simple answer is the Jaguars’ defense played with more desire to win than the Buffalo offense.
The Bills definitely have a problem. They cannot run the football with their running backs. This issue cascades into having to rely too heavily on Allen to make all the plays. Daboll is consistently devising zone-read quarterback run schemes and run-pass options, not because he likes those types of plays, but because the Bills are not good enough on the offensive line to block the guys in front of them.
It was very evident against the Jaguars that perhaps the weakest area on the team is the struggling offensive line. Their inability to protect and to be physical resulted in Allen trying to do more than he should have been required to do.
Yes, the turnovers, penalties, dropped passes and general lack of urgency on the offensive side of the ball cost the Bills the opportunity to take command of the AFC East, but the more difficult problem now will be surviving this horrific offensive performance and finding a way to regain their confidence.
The answer to this question will define the remainder of the Bills’ season: “What is the offensive identity of the Buffalo Bills?”
Having reviewed all their games for the past four years, it is apparent the current answer to this question is Josh Allen. It is his running and passing ability along with his ability to make good decisions. The problem with this philosophy is that he shoulders too much of the load. Daboll must find a way to run the football outside of Allen’s production or the Bills' struggles might very well continue.
