Here is a position-by-position look at the Buffalo Bills’ needs entering the NFL draft.
Quarterbacks
Nothing to see here. The Bills won’t consider a quarterback until late in the draft, if they do at all. The team traded for Case Keenum to serve as Josh Allen’s backup, and brought back Matt Barkley to compete for the No. 3 quarterback job, either on the active roster or, more likely, the practice squad. It’s possible the Bills could use a late-round pick on a developmental quarterback to compete with Barkley, but it’s hardly a need.
Need ranking: 1 of 10.
Running backs
Buffalo has a need at running back because Devin Singletary is entering the last year of his contract, and the coaches signaled their desire for an impact receiver out of the backfield with the attempt to sign free agent J.D. McKissic.
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It’s well-established that running backs grow on trees and never should be signed to a second contract unless it’s a cheap one or the back is a Hall-of-Fame talent. Devin Singletary had a nice end to his 2021 campaign, but he is replaceable after the 2022 season. To make up for losing McKissic, the Bills signed Plan B option Duke Johnson, who has averaged 51 catches over his six full NFL seasons. That’s not likely to preclude them from drafting someone who could bring juice to the offense.
Adding a difference-making receiver out of the backfield would be a way to help exploit the shell coverages the Bills see, out of respect for Allen’s deep passing ability.
The best all-around back in the draft class is Iowa State’s Breece Hall. He is an elite receiver, and his running style is reminiscent of Indianapoils Colts’ superstar Jonathan Taylor. But the Bills probably would have to take him in the first round. He’s not likely to last to pick No. 57 in the second. There are a bunch of good pass-catching options to be had in the middle rounds. Excellent receiving backs who could fill a McKissic-like role include Arizona State’s Rachaad White, Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams, Georgia’s James Cook and North Carolina’s Ty Chandler. Later on Day 3, throw in Baylor’s Trestan Ebner, who is good in pass protection, ran 4.43, had 124 career receptions and had only five drops on 156 career targets.
The Irish’s Williams might be a good value with the Bills’ No. 130 pick, if available. He has natural hands, was split out some by Notre Dame and is the best pass-protecting back in the draft class. He’s not electric, but he fits the Bills’ character profile, and he even served as a lead blocker on QB runs. Chandler, a transfer from Tennessee, averaged 14.4 yards on 15 catches last season.
Need ranking: 7 out of 10.
Wide receivers
Buffalo easily could justify drafting a wide receiver in the first two rounds. The Bills need a third outside receiver to replace Emmanuel Sanders and to go along with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. While proven veteran Jamison Crowder was signed to replace Cole Beasley, he’s on only a one-year contract. And as Kansas City’s Andy Reid has shown, more speed on offense always is a good thing. An attractive wideout is very likely to be on the board when the Bills draft at No. 25.
It would be hard for the Bills to pass on Alabama’s Jameson Williams, even though he probably won’t be 100% for the start of the season, because he’s so elite. It will be an upset if he lasts until No. 25. If one of the following three are on the board – Arkansas’ Treylon Burks, Ohio State’s Chris Olave or Penn State’s Jahan Dotson – should the Bills pick one? Burks is 6-foot-2 and 225 and draws comparisons to Titans star A.J. Brown. Olave ran 4.39 in the 40, and Dotson ran 4.43.
Need ranking: 8 out of 10.
Offensive tackles
The Bills are in good shape, with Dion Dawkins coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance at left tackle and Spencer Brown emerging as a pleasant surprise last year as a rookie at right tackle. Brown, chosen in the third round from Northern Iowa, pushed veteran Daryl Williams inside and, eventually, off the roster entirely. If Brown can take another step in his second season, that pick will start to look even better for general manager Brandon Beane.
The Bills bolstered their depth with the free-agent signing of David Quessenberry from Tennessee. He’ll face competition for the swing tackle position from Tommy Doyle, a fifth-round draft pick in 2021.
None of the Bills’ projected starters along the offensive line are former first-round picks.
“When you look back at the Bills, they’ve built that offensive line to be a serviceable offensive line, and they’ve done it without a first-round pick,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “There’s other picks in the draft to be able to go and address that. You know, it kind of gets to the philosophy on how you build an offensive line, which I think has changed.
“I think it was just a few years ago when the Cowboys had the best offensive line in the league and it was all these first-round picks, and ‘OK, you’ve got to dedicate all these resources and high-value picks to your offensive line,’ to now, ‘Hey, your offensive line is as good as your worst player, so you don’t need five Tony Bosellis. You just can’t have any tomato cans out there.’ You can build that in the middle rounds. You can find really good offensive linemen in the second and third round.”
Jeremiah backed up that opinion with some facts.
“If you go back and look up the last five Super Bowl teams, that’s Super Bowl winning teams, that’s 25 starting offensive linemen. Of the 25 starting offensive linemen, three of them were home-grown, first-round picks,” he said. “Four of them were Day 2 picks; seven were Day 3 picks; one was an undrafted free agent; and four were veterans that were acquired in free agency or via trade. You can build an offensive line without using all your first-round picks to do it.”
If the Bills do address tackle, it will be Day 3.
Need ranking: 3 of 10.
Interior offensive line
Buffalo fortified its interior by signing quality veteran Rodger Saffold and retaining Ryan Bates and Ike Boettger, who is coming off an Achilles injury. Saffold turns 34 in June and is playing on a one-year contract. Backup Cody Ford is in the last year of his contract and will have to battle to make the roster.
The Bills could use a young, mid- to late-round guard or center who new offensive line coach Aaron Kromer can mold into a starter in 2023. The middle rounds are a perfect place to find that prospect. The presumption is the Bills will lean a little more in the direction of mobile offensive linemen under Kromer than they did under former line coach Bobby Johnson, who slanted in the direction of big, people-movers.
On the Bills’ needs list, however, a guard ranks behind cornerback, wide receiver, big defensive tackle and running back.
Need ranking: 5 out of 10.
Tight ends
Dawson Knox is coming off a standout season. He set a franchise record for touchdowns by a tight end, even while missing two games with a hand injury. Beane was candid that he wanted to add depth to compete with Knox, and he did.
The Bills added to the tight end room in the free agency, bringing in O.J. Howard. Howard, a first-round pick out of Alabama in 2017, spent five years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He missed some time with injuries, but expects to benefit from a fresh start in Buffalo.
It is all a big jump from where the Bills stood at tight end a year prior, with Beane candidly calling for improvement. If Knox can maintain this level of play and Howard can work himself well into the offense, the Bills aren’t in huge need of drafting a tight end. However, Howard is on a one-year contract. The Bills had several tight ends in for visits, including Coastal Carolina’s Isaiah Likely, Texas A&M’s Jaylen Wydermyer and Virginia Tech’s James Mitchell, all possible Day 3 options.
Need ranking: 4 out of 10.
Edge rushers
Far be it from Beane to pass on a chance to draft an edge rusher he likes.
He took defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham in the first and second rounds of the 2021 draft after taking A.J. Epenesa in the second round in 2020. The young group still has some developing to do, but Rousseau, in particular, has shown really solid growth.
The Bills brought back Shaq Lawson, but are without Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Efe Obada. Obada signed with the Commanders; Hughes and Addison are free agents.
With the way AFC teams have built up their offenses, Beane believes in countering by getting players who can get opposing quarterbacks to the ground. The addition of veteran pass rusher Von Miller this free agency is a testament to that need. Now, even with the investment in Miller, the Bills could still add depth, and won’t rule other continuing the defensive end streak.
“We’re still going to take the best player (available), and especially early in the early rounds,” Beane said in March.
Need ranking: 6 out of 10.
Interior defensive line
The defensive tackle group has changed dramatically this offseason. Harrison Phillips is off to Minnesota, Vernon Butler signed with the Las Vegas Raiders and Star Lotulelei is a free agent. The Bills brought back Jordan Phillips and signed Tim Settle and DaQuan Jones. Those three join fourth-year defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who’s coming off a solid season.
“I thought he was our best, most consistent D-lineman all year from start to finish,” Beane said in January.
“Grading the D-line, those guys were a big part of what we did, even though we don’t have a 15-sack guy or anything like that, a number of tackles for loss. Ed really helped the back end with his disruption, having the quarterback get the ball out, or at least get him off the spot, having to throw on the move turns into an incompletion or an interception,” he added.
Settle is entering his fifth year, and Phillips and Jones are older. The Bills could look to add some younger talent, with added time to develop. They could add a big 1-technique prospect if they find one late in the draft. Beane certainly wouldn’t count out anything.
“I’m always going to put resources in the front,” Beane said in January. “That’s just how I believe it should be built. Don’t ever be shocked if you see us trying to add there, free agency or the draft at any point.”
Need ranking: 4 of 10.
Linebackers
Looking solely at the 2022 season, linebacker looms as a Day 3 need for Buffalo. However, middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is entering the last year of his contract. He will be very expensive to retain in 2023 and beyond. If an ideal linebacker is on the board in the second or third round, the Bills could pounce and opt not to make Edmunds one of their “cornerstone” financial players. If no LB they love is on the board, they could hold off on a financial decision on Edmunds. Behind Edmunds and Matt Milano, the Bills have Tyrel Dodson, Tyler Matakevich, Marquel Lee, special teams ace Andre Smith and Joe-Giles Harris.
With veteran A.J. Klein gone, Matakevich is the backup to Edmunds in the middle. Dodson is the incumbent backup to Milano. The Bills could use another speedy prospect.
Need ranking: 6 out of 10.
Cornerbacks
Dane Jackson stepped into the starting lineup when White got hurt on Thanksgiving night against the Saints and finished the season strong. Did the 2020 seventh-round draft pick out of Pitt do enough to prove he can be a full-time starter? Is White going to be back to his All-Pro level by September? Those are questions the Bills’ coaching staff and front office have to answer.
“Tre’s doing well – he’s working hard in the building, so we’ll start there,” coach Sean McDermott said last month, though the Bills have not provided an expected timeline for White’s return. “I don’t want to forget about Tre. Then Dane, we have a lot of confidence in Dane as well, and the work that he’s put in and shown, and the results on the field to this point – albeit a small sample. Then we’ve got the young guys behind him who are working hard and just got through their first year. … Without getting into everyone, we’ve got a lot of confidence in those guys.”
While that may be the case, it still might be time to devote some more draft resources to the position. Over the past four years, the Bills have used a pick in the fourth round or earlier on just one cornerback – Taron Johnson in 2018.
Even if the Bills determine White and Jackson are ready to be Week 1 starters, depth is a concern. A drafted rookie would not provide experience in that regard, but he might provide a viable starting option – especially if drafted in the first couple of rounds. For a team with no real holes anywhere else on the roster, cornerback definitely sticks out.
Need ranking: 9 out of 10.
Safeties
The Bills have the best safety tandem in the NFL with first-team All-Pro Jordan Poyer and second-team All-Pro Micah Hyde. But for how long?
Poyer, who turns 31 on April 25 and has one season remaining on his contract, recently hired renowned agent Drew Rosenhaus, who told The Buffalo News he has approached the Bills about a contract extension.
Poyer is undoubtedly looking for top money for his position. He was a seventh-round draft pick by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2013.
Hyde, 31, signed a two-year extension with the Bills in 2021, keeping him under team control through the 2023 season. He was a fifth-round pick by the Green Bay Packers in 2013.
The Bills’ roster also includes safeties Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin and Josh Thomas, as well as Siran Neal, who is listed as a cornerback but also plays strong safety.
Need ranking: 4 of 10.
