Sean McDermott doesn’t usually have much of a sweet tooth, but draft night is an exception.
The Buffalo Bills’ sixth-year head coach expects to have plenty of nervous energy Thursday night during the first round of the NFL draft.
“It’s good that we have a lot of candy in the draft room,” he said, “so I guess I can satisfy my anxious hunger. … I’ll be doing that through the first 20 picks.”
Welcome to life as a member of the NFL’s upper class. The Bills are coming off a second consecutive AFC East championship season. That’s great, of course – except when it comes to the draft. By advancing to the divisional round of the postseason, the Bills have to wait until the 25th overall pick in the first round before General Manager Brandon Beane can turn in a card – barring a trade, of course.
“You have a good season and you’ve got to wait the next year,” McDermott said. “I'd rather have it that way.”
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McDermott then again joked about Beane being the one who can do something to shorten the wait, conceivably by moving up in the draft. For teams picking in the bottom of the first round – which the Bills hope is a reality for years to come – that temptation always will be there.
“I'm probably my own worst enemy with patience,” Beane acknowledged last week.
Because of that, the Bills’ general manager does his best every offseason to fill as many holes on his roster as he can in free agency. His reasoning for that is sound.
“So that I don't have to feel the pressure of, ‘I cannot leave the first round or the second round without player X or position X,’ ” he said.
Mostly, Beane has succeeded in that endeavor. While a strong case can be made the team still has a sizable hole at cornerback, the projected starting lineup otherwise looks just about set.
That opens up a world of options in the first round. Trade up, stay put or trade back all have their merits. This year, that’s amplified given the uncertainty of what will happen ahead of the Bills.
“Knowing your board, having a feel, too, of how the draft is going to fall, I think this year is going to be a little harder,” Beane said. “In past years, we've kind of known where some of these quarterbacks were going and where some other guys might fall. It seems like a crapshoot right now to where the quarterbacks will fall, which will ultimately decide what position players get pushed down to 25.”
While the wait will be stressful, the top of this year’s first round promises to be packed with drama. It’s not just quarterback that features plenty of uncertainty. Even the Jaguars, who pick first for the second consecutive year, are a mystery.
Complicating matters is the true number of players worthy of being first-round picks. It’s a bit of a misconception that, because there are 32 picks in the first round, teams have 32 prospects with first-round grades. In fact, that’s rarely the case.
“A good class for me is 26-27,” said ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. “I right now have 24 guys with first-round grades. I’ve talked to some teams that have only 16, 17, 18 first-round grades in a given year. Some teams I’ve talked to have 23, 24.”
McShay also grades the entire class without worry about things such as scheme fit or specific traits regarding how a player would fit a team’s culture.
“A lot of those things move players down or take them off the board for specific teams,” he said. “My list is always going to be a little bigger because I’m not playing a 3-4 or a 4-3. I’m just looking at the player and where his value is. This year is not as deep a group in the first round.”
Beane wouldn’t spill exactly how many first-round grades he has this year, but he seemed to indicate he agreed with McShay’s take.
“I don’t have 32,” the GM said. “It’s definitely less.”
That presents an interesting situation for the Bills. Let’s say Beane has 20 prospects with first-round grades. He could sit at 25 and hope one falls to him.
A similar scenario played out last year. Picking at No. 30, the Bills did not have anywhere close to 30 first-round grades, according to Beane. Miami edge rusher Greg Rousseau did have a first-round grade, though, and he made it to Buffalo’s pick.
For that type of thing to happen again, Beane will want to see as many quarterbacks as possible be drafted ahead of the Bills. Buffalo is not in the quarterback market at the top of the draft, and won’t be for a long time with Josh Allen. Any quarterback picked ahead of the Bills moves a position player closer to their pick.
"Brandon Beane is definitely rooting for quarterbacks to go. The more quarterbacks that go, it keeps pushing talent down," said Mark Dominik, the former general manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and current NFL analyst for SiriusXM.
But if the quarterbacks don’t go, and Beane’s first-round prospects start to fly off the board, he’ll have to ask himself, do I want to stay put and hope the right player falls? Do I want to get aggressive and move up? Or do I want to hope that the right trade-down opportunity arises?
“I would look at both and it depends on who the player is,” Beane said of the possibility of moving up. “What am I giving up? What's it going to cost me? What pick is it going to cost me? Is it going to cost me a third-round pick, and how strong do I feel about the third round? I'm giving up this player to go up and do this, but it was really worth it. I feel like this is an impact player for us, right now. Or maybe I don’t, and I want to let the board come to me. … If the numbers are getting thin, I'm going to be looking both ways to see which is the best solution for us.”
Any trade involves two willing parties, but it might be a bit easier this year to move up, considering this is not thought to be an elite class of prospects at the top of the draft. Instead, the draft is thought to have good depth, which makes the accumulation of picks a sensible approach. It’s been reported that several teams near the top of the draft are interested in moving down. Maybe Beane sees a good opportunity to get what he views as a potential impact player for a discount on the normal price.
“I'm hopeful that we'll still be able to draft at 25 a player that we have a first-round grade on,” he said. “If it's getting close to our pick, and I’m going, ‘Man, I don't think we're going to, I think we're going to be dipping in the second round,’ then I'll try to move back if I can.”
The bottom of the first round is usually a good spot for that. Quarterback-hungry teams – especially those that might pass on a quarterback earlier in the first round – might be interested in moving up to get their guy at the bottom of the round. That’s because contracts for players drafted in the first round contain a fifth-year team option, which is especially important for a quarterback.
“I think for all the potential inaction up at the top of the draft, I think we could see a lot of action toward the bottom, especially as it pertains to the quarterbacks,” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. “I think that’s where the value is, if you want to get back into the bottom of the first round, get the fifth year, take a flier on one of these guys. I think we could see some action and some movement there. I think the Bills could have an opportunity to make a move there if they want.”
If Beane elects not to move up and his first-round prospects are gone, moving back is logical. It might not result in a player the team has graded all that differently, either.
“There’s a lot of drafts that once you get by 20, then the next 20 are relatively the same guy,” said Buffalo native Greg Gabriel, a former college scouting director for the Chicago Bears. “If they go 21 or 39, it wouldn’t surprise you. It depends how the team picking has them graded. I call them 20-to-40 guys."
Of course, the least-sexy option might end up being the best one.
"First round, I think you've got to stand still, because I think you're going to like what's going to come to you," Dominik said. "If the quarterbacks pull off the board, I bet you Brandon sits there and just waits. If the quarterbacks don't peel off the way people expect, then I think actually trading back might be the best option because now you're going to have some of these clubs that didn't take a quarterback may try and come back up there. The more players you can get in that top 60 to 70 players, the better you are."
All of those options are what makes the draft so compelling. That's true even for those intimately involved in the process.
"We'll just see how it plays out," McDermott said. "I have a lot of confidence and trust in Brandon and his staff, they work extremely hard and I know we'll come out with some good players."
