Buzz about running back Breece Hall to Bills building as NFL draft nears

In a normal draft year, it’s a good bet a quarterback goes with the No. 1 overall pick. That’s happened the past four years and six out of the past seven drafts, but that streak is likely to end Thursday night when the Jacksonville Jaguars kick things off.

Increasingly, speculation suggests the Buffalo Bills might also go against the grain with their first-round draft pick. Iowa State running back Breece Hall has continually been linked as a possibility for the Bills at No. 25.

“Breece Hall, the running back at Iowa State, to me, by far would be the best running back on their roster if he were to go there,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said last week on a national conference call. “I think you’ve got an offense that’s going to go out and get a bunch of leads with how explosive they are. I think getting someone who could finish the game, I think Breece Hall gives you that ability.”

Drafting a running back in the first round is a polarizing prospect. Recently, the return on investment has been uneven, to put it mildly. Last year, two running backs went in the first round. Pittsburgh took Najee Harris No. 24 overall, and he delivered a 1,200-yard rushing season and seven touchdowns. Jacksonville took Travis Etienne with the next pick, and he spent his rookie season on injured reserve.

The year before, the Chiefs made Clyde Edwards-Helaire the only running back taken, using the last pick of the first round. In 2019, the Raiders selected Josh Jacobs at No. 24 overall. In 2018, the Giants took Saquan Barkley at No. 2; the Seahawks took Rashaad Penny at No. 27; and the Patriots took Sony Michel at No. 31. It can be argued that none of those picks has met expectations.

“Receiver has become the No. 2 position of value, because the game has changed,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “So many teams, if you look at the depth chart of their first running back, second running back, third running back, I’d say more so than not, you’re seeing teams rotate those guys and utilize them for their strengths and keep their legs fresh. Then they become less valuable. There is only a handful of guys in the league year in and year out who are in the top 10 in rushing. Then you factor in all the injuries. Then you factor in the shelf life – at 30 years old, all but just a small handful, their production just drops off just completely almost.”

That would be the case against a first-round running back. What would be the case for it?

“When it comes to the value of the position, my thought process on running backs is I don’t have a problem taking those guys in the first round provided your team is ready to win right now and they’re all meaningful carries,” Jeremiah said. “In other words, if you’re a bad team and you take a running back high, and if we assume they have a short shelf life and you’re going to get a five-year run out of those guys, you’re wasting two years of carries on a bad team. The Buffalo Bills have a team that’s a championship-caliber team right now. You draft a running back, every single one of those carries you would think for the next four to five years is going to be a meaningful, valuable carry.

“So I could make a strong case that it would make a lot of sense with Breece Hall for them at No. 25.”

Of course, there is an opportunity cost involved. Drafting a running back means passing on another, more valuable position, such as cornerback or wide receiver.

“There are a lot of factors with the running back (in the first round), but I think mostly it’s because the game has changed … and you’re able to get good running backs in the second, third, fourth, fifth rounds,” McShay said. “We see that year in and year out. The consistency of that tells teams, ‘I don’t want to spend this money’ when I can go get a corner or a receiver, obviously a quarterback, an offensive tackle or a pass rusher. Those are the positions you see come off the board, especially high in the first round, but throughout the first round.”

If Hall makes it to No. 25, it will be interesting to see what direction General Manager Brandon Beane goes with the pick.

In his final mock draft on "Chris Simms Unbuttoned," the former quarterback claimed there was “a little love affair” between Buffalo and Hall.

“I’ve got a little curveball for you,” Simms said. “This is a little bit because I’ve heard this, too. Breece Hall, Iowa State running back, off the board. I’ve heard there’s a little love affair through the grapevine up there in Buffalo that they like Breece Hall a lot.”

NFL.com's Next Gen Stats recently published its list of "can't-miss prospects," and Hall came in at No. 1 due to his speed, athleticism, age and production in college.

“It’s not totally off the rails here to go with this guy for what they are as a team,” Simms said of the Bills. “They’re going to throw the ball, throw the ball, throw the ball, throw the ball. You’re going to start playing too much defense... Whew! Here’s a draw play to Breece Hall, your safeties are 30 yards deep and now you’re going to have to tackle Breece Hall 30 yards down the field."

This close to the draft, any reports about a team being infatuated with any prospect should be closely scrutinized. The Bills, especially, are good at keeping information in house. As an example, they signed Von Miller without anyone knowing ahead of time.

It's possible the idea of the Bills being infatuated with Hall is being leaked by someone close to the running back, or it's part of a "smokescreen" by the Bills to mask their true intentions.

Although the idea of adding Etienne last year was heavily talked about before the draft, it was a moot point because he came off the board before the Bills were up at No. 30.

Running back is considered somewhat of a need for the Bills given that starter Devin Singletary is entering the final year of his contract. Hall was a first-team Associated Press All-American and repeated as the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, ranking seventh in the nation with 1,472 rushing yards (253 carries, 5.8 yards per carry) and tying for third with 20 rushing touchdowns. He also caught 36 passes for 302 yards and three scores in 12 starts.

For what it’s worth, Beane said last week the team has had first-round grades on running backs during his time in Buffalo.

“But if we chose someone else, we thought they were a better player or a more valuable player to what we were adding,” he said. “Sometimes, it gets down to the position value. … But, you know, if there's a player that I think is dynamic enough as a running back, that can add an element to our offense, this year, next year, whenever, we would still take him. It would have to be dynamic enough to be over another position that maybe is considered a higher position value.”

Hall and Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III are generally regarded as the top two running backs available. It would be a surprise if either of them come off the board before pick No. 25.

“There aren’t many teams that actually have a high need for a running back,” McShay said. “Buffalo has a big cornerback need and they could add some more receiver depth and offensive line, but Buffalo’s the only team that I would look at because they don’t have a lot of pressing needs. They could take that as an opportunity to get the best back if they really loved one of those two.”