Latino voters could hold key to Arizona's governor race

Hobbs acknowledges that means convincing those who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 — and gave him a winning margin here — that they should support her versus presumed Republican nominee Andy Biggs, who has aligned himself with the president and is boasting of his endorsement.

"I am focused on doing everything I can to deliver for Arizonans. That includes Latino families,'' Hobbs said Monday when her campaign unveiled Familias Primero — Families First — its coalition of Latino leaders, community members and local elected officials.  

But what it also means, according to Raquel Teran, the former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and a member of the new coalition, is that Hobbs needs to pick up at least two-thirds of the Hispanic vote to overcome what even the governor concedes are numbers that could be seen as working against her.

Hobbs pointed out that she is only one of two Democratic governors seeking reelection this year in a state that Trump won in 2024 — in Arizona's case, by 5.5%. By contrast, her own 17,117-vote victory over Republican Kari Lake in 2022 was by just 0.7%.

And this in a state where, while political independents make up a third of registered voters, Republicans still outnumber Democrats in Arizona by more than 313,000, close to 10 points.

That has the incumbent pursuing a dual-track campaign.

As she has at virtually every event, the governor clicked off what she says are her bipartisan goals like addressing high costs for consumers, securing the border, creating good-paying jobs and protecting the state's water supply.

But Hobbs also is focused on convincing those who may be undecided that Biggs is not part of the political mainstream.

"Trump-endorsed Andy Biggs is one of the most extreme MAGA politicians in the entire country,'' the governor told her Latino coalition members.

She claimed Trump is pushing Biggs to be governor in this swing state specifically to give him a role in overseeing the 2028 election. Teran said that is the kind of message the Latino community, crucial to the governor's victory, needs to hear.

"The Republicans have worked to purge people from the permanent early voting list,'' Teran said.

"Who are the people most impacted when you have that type of anti-democracy legislation?'' she asked. "It's communities of color, communities that usually don't come out and vote.''

Biggs, for his part, isn't surrendering the Hispanic vote. In fact, he trotted out his Latinos for Biggs group more than a month before Hobbs premiered the Familias Primero coalition, with events in Maricopa and Pima counties.

Hobbs, however, said her newly created coalition doesn't place her behind the curve, with her formal announcement coming just a day before the Democratic primary election in which she had no opposition.

"We've been working for over a year on this campaign and building the coalitions in support we need to win,'' the governor said. 

"Most voters are not tuning in yet,'' she said. "So I'm confident that we're running the campaign I need to win. And I'm really proud of the coalition of folks here supporting my reelection.''

That still leaves the question of how worried she needs to be about Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024. And there were a lot of them.

"I don't think I've ever seen so many signs from the opposite party,'' said Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo of his mostly Hispanic and Democratic neighborhood in west Phoenix. "It was unbelievable.''

Still, he believes that many can be drawn back into the Democratic fold for the upcoming election, saying that many "now have a sour taste in their mouth.''

"I think they were sold a bag of goods,'' Gallardo said, especially Trump's promises to lower costs.

"I think he was saying whatever he needed to say to get elected,'' Gallardo said. "But, at the end of the day ... he failed on that part.''

Gallardo is not alone in thinking the shine has come off of Trump in the Hispanic community and, by extension, those like Biggs whom he has endorsed.

In May, UnidosUS said its bipartisan poll showed 67% of Latino voters in Arizona disapproved of Trump's job performance. More to the point, 19% who said they voted for the president in 2024 said if they could do it over they would not vote for him again.

Biggs, however, is seeking to blame economic issues on Hobbs.

"I believe that Donald Trump has delivered more for Latinos than Katie,'' he said, saying the high cost of housing in Arizona is due to failures to make necessary changes in water laws and to make more state lands available for development.

But pollster Mike Noble said Biggs is going to have a hard time selling Arizonans on the idea.

He said when people were asked about who to blame for the state's economy, about half said it could be laid at the feet of the current governor. But Noble said the percentage of those who blamed the president was 27 points higher than those who said it wasn't his fault.

While Hobbs is moving to boost her support among Hispanics, she also is taking care not to anger potential swing voters who tend to side with Republicans on issues like border security.

Consider Proposition 314, which allows state and local police to arrest those who enter the country illegally at other than a port of entry.

Hobbs vetoed the measure in 2024, saying it would be "harmful'' to communities and businesses and "burdensome'' for law enforcement. Republican lawmakers did an end run, sending the measure directly to voters, who approved it on a 2-1 margin.

And Hobbs, talking with reporters at the rollout of Familias Primero, said she won't direct the state Department of Public Safety not to enforce it.

"As governor, it is my job to enforce the law,'' she said. "And I'm confident that our state troopers are going to enforce that law while still upholding people's rights and without prejudice.''

Then there's the issue of campaign cash.

New financial disclosure reports show Hobbs already has spent more than $11.5 million on her reelection effort. That includes more than $7.4 million in just the past three months.

And that doesn't include more than $2 million spent by Copper State Values, a political action committee run by Nicole DuMont, the same person who is managing Hobbs' gubernatorial campaign. That committee can take in large individual and corporate donations, using some to share expenses with Hobbs' campaign and giving other cash to the Democratic Party that also can be used to help her win the election.

By comparison, Biggs — who had a primary election on Tuesday — has so far spent just $2.4 million, though he also has benefited from nearly $460,000 spent on his behalf by outside groups, most of that from Turning Point.

Hobbs, having acknowledged the GOP voter registration edge and her own narrow victory in 2022, said her current level of spending is justified.

"We're running the race we need to win,'' she said. "It's going to take a lot to get there. We know it's going to be a close race.''

Biggs conceded the governor has so far been able to outspend him. But he said that Hobbs, unopposed in her primary, has been able to bring in cash from fundraisers organized by national Democratic organizations.

Yet even with all that income, Hobbs' cash on hand, at least as reported by her campaign, is only about $1 million more than Biggs has in the bank.

Finally having a Republican nominee decided by Tuesday's primary, he said, should help free up national funds — especially with Arizona considered by some to be a possible gubernatorial pickup given how well Trump did last time.