Local opinion: Some good news about violent crime

Most people are wrong about crime most of the time.

When asked if crime is going up, down, or staying the same compared to the previous year, about 70% of people polled say it is increasing despite evidence to the contrary. In fact, over the past two decades, most people have held onto the myth of ever-increasing crime despite historic declines, with 2014 being the least violent year in modern American history.

You wouldn’t know it from reading most opinion pieces or listening to pundits, but 2024 is shaping up to be a historically safe year as well. This is particularly true for Tucson.

More than four months into the year, Tucson has the fewest homicides it has seen at this point on the calendar since before the COVID pandemic. While even one killing is far too many, we also need to know when and how to embrace the good news about declining violence overall.

As a social scientist I find it concerning that good news about crime is difficult for people to accept. There is so much false and misleading information about crime rates that when faced with the fact that crime is on the decline, I am often met with skepticism and even outright anger. But why is that?

Short of a social-psychological analysis of what causes such consternation about crime decreases, I think the reason goes back to partisanship. We would rather ignore or even refute the numbers than give the other side a win. But here is the thing: neither political party gets the credit for lowering crime, just as neither political party should accept the blame for short or long-term increases in crime. As any criminologist will tell you, it takes years to get a grasp of the many factors that contributed to past changes in crime rates, up or down.

But why is it so difficult to get a clear answer about the reality of crime trends if the data is seemingly so objective and free of partisan politics, especially when it comes to homicides? This is a question I address ever semester in my large “Crime and City” course at the University of Arizona. And the answer has to do with geography.

We can tell wildly different stories about homicide rates depending on where, when, who, and how we count. Here is just one example I give to my students. If we calculate within the political boundaries of Tucson alone, then the homicide rate so far in 2024 is right around 3.4. That is already a generational low.

However, if we include Catalina Foothills, Drexel Heights, and other incorporated and unincorporated areas whose residents for all intents and purposes are Tucsonans given where they eat, shop, work, and socialize, then the homicide rate falls to 2.3. This is one of the lowest rates on record.

Whichever way you calculate the homicide rate, it is clear that both Tucson as a city as well as the larger Tucson metropolitan area within Pima County is experiencing a generational drop in the number of homicides. That is good news for everyone concerned with violent crime trends. And with one of the highest solve rates of any homicide unit in the nation at over 80%, the Tucson Police Department is also bringing those who do commit murder to justice.

I have found that people who use hyperbolic metaphors to write about “skyrocketing” crime are typically beholden to a particular interest group for whom high crime is used to spur partisan support or benefit from moral panics. In the interest of full disclosure, I too am beholden to two interest groups of my own: my children who I have chosen to raise in the City of Tucson and my students at the University of Arizona who crave a bias-free, non-partisan, and trustworthy perspective on violent crime.