Joey Chestnut can destroy a hot dog almost as fast as he can obliterate suspense at the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4.
Joey Chestnut made a triumphant return to Coney Island on July 4,2025, reclaiming his title at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest by eating 70.5 hot dogs.
This year, oddsmakers give Chestnut, the 17-time champion, about a 95% probability of winning the contest. Also, Polymarket gives him only a 9% chance of breaking his own record for eating 76 hot dogs and buns during the 10-minute contest.
That means the contest likely will play out as usual — Chestnut cruising to victory by a margin of at least 10 hot dogs to the cheers of thousands of spectators and more than a million TV viewers.
Yet no one sounds concerned about the possibility of shrinking crowds on Coney Island or declining TV viewership during ESPN's broadcast.
"It seems like at least to some extent, dominance sells," Jeremy Schaap, who handles the play-by-play announcing for ESPN, told USA Today Sports.
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George Shea, the contest's longtime host, said sponsorship deals continue to grow.
"The value placed on this contest by third parties is enormous," Shea said, though he declined to provide financial details.
'Joey Chestnut needs a rival'
Matt Moore, Co-Director of the International Institute for Sport and Behavioral Health at the University of Kentucky, conducted research on rivalry.
"Joey Chestnut needs a rival," Moore said by email. "Competition is what defines Joey Chestnut as the greatest of all time in competitive eating. He consistently sets records because I believe he knows there could be rivals capable of breaking them. "
That theory can be tested.
Chestnut helped put the gross into the engrossing ESPN’s 30 for 30 documentary: "The Good, The Bad, The Hungry." Takeru Kobayashi, his former rival, added animosity. Their rivalry is considered the greatest in competitive eating history.
When Kobayashi left the contest in 2010 after a contract dispute with Nathan’s, Chestnut continued to break his own records.
Then Matt Stonie arrived on the scene in 2015, handing Chestnut his first defeat since losing to Kobayashi in 2006. The following year, Chestnut crushed Stonie. He ate a personal-record 70 hot dogs while Stonie ate 53 and never threatened Chestnut again.
"If someone emerges as a rival to Joey Chestnut it transforms the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest into an event," Moore said. "At that point the crowd isn't just watching Joey eat hot dogs — they are witnessing two competitors pushing each other to the limit. It is through rivalries where we get to witness the unforgettable."
The love of dominance
Since Chestnut’s debut on Coney Island in 2005, he missed just one of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests. That was 2024, when Chestnut was banned for a dispute over an endorsement deal.
"There was a lot less buzz because Joey wasn't there, but we knew that it was going to be very competitive," said Schaap, who made his debut that year as the play-by-play announcer. "And as I recall, it came down to the last few bites, last few chomps."
But ESPN’s broadcast in 2024 of the Joey-is-missing contest produced a rating of 831,117, believed to be the lowest since ESPN began televising the event in 2004.
In 2025, Chestnut returned and so did the predictability. He demolished the field. ESPN’s broadcast produced a rating of 1,620,000, almost double the rating when Chestnut was on the sideline in 2024.
"People love dominance," Schaap said.
