From professional sports to wars on the other side of the globe, online gambling has proven it can skew major events in dangerous ways. This industry is becoming a threat, and the United States should rein it in.
Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel recently reported on an Iranian missile strike. Shortly after, bettors pressured him to change details of the story, with some even making death threats.
All that was apparently for the sake of a wager on Polymarket, an online platform that bills itself as a “prediction market.” The platform lets users buy and sell “yes” or “no” shares in the outcome of an event. It’s gambling, whatever anyone might call it.
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Fabian reported that these people had bet on “Iran strikes Israel on … ?,” with more than $14 million wagered on March 10.
In January, an anonymous trader on Polymarket made more than $400,000 betting that former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be toppled by the end of January, NPR reported. Polymarket and other platforms like Kalshi let people bet on elections, too. Traders placed their bets in the hotly contested U.S. Senate primaries in Texas.
Not only can prediction markets distort incentives and encourage particular outcomes, they also have a knack for bringing out the worst in those who use them. Betting on bombings, wars and coups treats human misery as a roulette wheel.
Beyond betting on other people’s lives, easily accessible online gambling carries other drawbacks.
Its effect on sports is raising deep concern. Point-shaving schemes and taking a dive for the sake of a bet is a practice probably as old as organized competitions. But online sports betting has supercharged it and propelled it to new heights.
In 2024, the NBA banned Jontay Porter for disclosing confidential information to sports bettors, altering his play in games and betting on NBA games, according to a league news release. Last year, Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier was accused in a separate scheme involving private information and sports betting, the Associated Press reported.
Online sports betting puts the incentives in the wrong place for spectators just as it does for players. Last year, Houston Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. received threats against himself and his family from an intoxicated gambler overseas, according to ESPN.
The gambling industry has done a lot to represent itself as innocent entertainment, and in many cases, that’s true. People who occasionally visit a casino aren’t on the road to ruin. But casino gambling is a heavily regulated and monitored business precisely because gambling lends itself to every level of personal corruption.
Online gambling, meanwhile, has proven particularly attractive and addictive to young men who might never visit a card table.
Prediction markets are now taking online gambling to a new level of concern. Congress needs to get smart, and fast, about how to rein them in.
