UA basketball: Recruiting math doesn’t seem to add up

Consider this: Arizona’s basketball coach has the maximum 13 players on scholarship this season. He’ll lose two seniors next spring. But he has four committed players lined up to sign this month during the early signing period … and is looking for more guys in next spring’s signing period.

“A couple, probably,” Miller said.

So, to recap, that’s 13 minus two, plus four, plus two more … equals 13.

Got it?

Miller does. His need for six total incoming 2015 players has an obvious implication: Multiple players could leave early after this season, with the prime candidates being wings Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, forward Brandon Ashley and center Kaleb Tarczewski. Transfers can — and often do — add to the equation, too.

Having both fall and spring signing periods adds flexibility, because UA will know exactly what it needs before the spring signing period, though Miller indicated he already has a read on what will happen.

“I think we know, pretty much,” Miller said. “The good news is we have a lot of guys committed, but we’ll need more in the spring.”

Already, since he arrived at Arizona in 2009, Miller has lost six players early to professional basketball and five to transfers, and forward Zach Peters retired from basketball last spring. That’s a total of 12 players leaving before scheduled, or more than two per year, and next spring there could be four or more. That trend means Miller now must essentially recruit a player at every position, every year, mixing in role players and transfers as needed.

At Pac-12 media day, Miller discussed the balancing act that is today’s elite-level recruiting. Among other things, he said:It’s not easy to get into the door of blue-chip recruits.

“We have a tradition that allows us to get in some of those doors, but it takes a lot of hard work to make it happen. To be at the top in college basketball, it’s competitive recruiting year in and year out. (You need) five to seven players every year. Just because the better they are, the more they leave.

“None of (those doors) were open when we first got here. Although everybody loved the tradition and respected Arizona basketball, it wasn’t as if (our staff) had recruited Mike Bibby or anyone like him before. And I was coming from the Midwest and was also Arizona’s fourth coach in four years so it was a very, very awkward time. I’m glad that period of time is over.”It’s necessary to recruit one-and-done players.

“I think we always aspire to do that. It’s just not easy. Generally with those guys you have to develop a relationship from ninth and 10th grade on. Not all the time but most of the time. … But it’s not as if we predetermined who’s a one-and-done, and we go after every one of them. It’s just that, especially in the West where we’re located, we have to do a great job of recruiting.”Derrick Williams, who left after two years at Arizona to be the No. 2 pick in the 2011 NBA draft, was a catalyst for recruiting.

“A lot of lightning in a bottle there. First, that he came to Arizona, and secondly, no one could have projected that Derrick would have had the instantaneous success that he had. And some of it had to do with that our team wasn’t very good. If he had come to Arizona today, it would have been different for him than it was then.”There’s no way to know exactly who is going to stick around.

“I think if any of us act as if we have a code and the answer, I don’t think we’re being transparent. We try to figure it out as best we can, but the fact is that every year is different. You can’t plan beyond that season. In some places a few players will be back and return better. T.J. (McConnell, senior guard) is a good example: We knew he would be back, and we knew that a couple of years ago. But there’s also a lot of uncertainty,, and you try to get the information as it comes.”Recruiting isn’t only about trying to win now.

“I think like anything, you have to have balance. We have a transfer sitting out, (senior forward) Ryan Anderson. He’s played three seasons at (Boston College). He’s from L.A., he’s been a great kid, very productive as a player, a really good student. He’s gonna practice with us every day. Ryan’s an example of having that balance where you’ll have a nonconference payer, an older player, that is gonna really have a huge role based on all the guys who are leaving.

“T.J. is another example. I don’t think anyone could anticipate the impact that he’s had, but he was the perfect guy at the right time playing along some other players, where he’s not on this path to becoming an early entry to the NBA himself but he’s just here to win. There’s something wholesome in that that brings out the best in our team and some of the other players we have.

“Then being able to recruit somebody like (sophomore guard) Elliott Pitts. Elliott is a really important part of our program. He played in some of the biggest games on our schedule last year as a freshman, and he’s going to do the same thing this year. But where he’ll be at his best is when he’s older. We try to get balance, and what really makes the balance work is when you mix them in with the elite players, like Aaron Gordon (who left UA after his freshman season last spring). That’s when I think you really have a chance in today’s model of winning big.”Early departures aren’t necessarily hurting college basketball’s popularity.

“It’s so easy to turn a negative spotlight on college basketball but, man, there’s a lot of positives to it. I go back to last year’s Final Four — the attendance and how much people cared. If you look at the people who won the national championship (Connecticut), they weren’t a bunch of one-and-dones — they were more of a throwback model, so it’s healthy in many ways, I think.

“But if you asked me if it would be healthy for the game if a player stayed for a specific age requirement or for more than one year, no question. I also believe it would be more healthy for the NBA. Maybe we’re moving in that direction. I don’t know if three (years) would work but two, maybe. I think that would really help.”You can only do so much when advising a player who is considering an early departure.

“If they want to go, we never fight them because it’s a fight you can’t win. You want to support them along the way. If we run into a situation where you look at info and you don’t think it’s in his best interests, you try to provide that information the best you can and hope they follow it. …

“I think once a player in your program believes you are in their best interests and believes they’re at a good place, they tend to follow that right path whether that’s leaving early or not.

“Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (who opted to stay for his sophomore season) is a great example. His family and him, the way they went about their process, they took the information, and they listened, and they made a decision based on maturity, academics, where he would be a year from last spring. It was great to see them make a decision like that. … I can give advice and do the research, but I think they made a really wise decision for all the right reasons, and when that happens, that’s when you really have a good feeling.

“I have no doubt Rondae is going to go on and do some things maybe he wouldn’t have been able to do if he would have left because he’s so much more ready and so much more of a mature person and a better player and an older person. There’s no denying you’ll get him as a more polished player on and off the court.”With a roster composed of four straight top-five recruiting classes, the Wildcats may not only be title contenders this season but for years to come.

“I think we’re heading in that direction. Time will tell because you have to do it for a long period of time. We’ve re-established that we can compete for the top prize, and the Final Four. You may say, ‘You haven’t been there yet,’ but we’re proud of the fact we’ve knocked on the door a couple of times.

“This year, next year, the year after that — we’re trying to have that same type of team, year in and year out, even though different types of faces come in every year. That’s a lot harder to do now because of how many players leave early.”